Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (3 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[MT15]

It seems there may be active resistance to the war inside Russia, whether from actual Ukrainians or Ukraine sympathizers:

 

[SaintForLife]

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Why are there so many American "patriots" that are so easily manipulated to parrot Russian disinformation? This guy went on and on about how US weapons are responsible for multiple attacks on civilian targets and turns a blind eye to the Russian atrocities committed daily. I discard his unsworn testimony and I discard the Russian delegation that lauds his speech.

Statement by Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia at UNSC briefing on arms deliveries to Ukraine​

Mr.President,

At the outset, we thank USG Nakamitsu, Mr. Max Blumenthal, and Mr. Chay Bowes for their substantive briefings. To Mr.Sergey Radchenko I would suggest that he stop speaking cunningly of the “rules-based order”. This is not the UN Charter. This is a set of rules invented by a small group of states, mostly Western, which they try to pass off as something universal.

On a more general point, we must note that the first two briefers spoke matter-of-factly and shared much useful detail regarding weapons deliveries to Ukraine and its financing. However, Mr.Radchenko simply provided a historical overview. We do not quite understand on what criteria this particular briefer was invited today.

As we just heard from our briefers (though not all of them), threats that are posed by Western weapons deliveries to the Kiev regime continue to grow and multiply against the unstopping attempts of our former Western partners to shift the entire responsibility for what is happening in Ukraine to Russia.

The irregularities in their promoted narrative are obvious. Western states keep trying to make the global community forget that the crisis in Ukraine, as well as deliveries of Western weapons to Kiev, started long before the special military operation. Thanks to revelations that high-ranking politicians of that time make today, we know that Ukraine was being steadily pumped up with weapons and prepared for a war with Russia for years under the guise of the Minsk Agreements. Even though the agreements were endorsed by UNSC resolutions, neither Western states nor Kiev were going to implement them. In the meantime, the peaceful population in the Donbas were targeted by massive strikes. Of course, Russia could not watch this with indifference.

Statement by Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia at UNSC briefing on arms deliveries to Ukraine

russiaun.ru

Edit: US Response...

ROBERT A. WOOD (United States), reiterating that it is categorically false to imply that support for Ukraine constitutes a threat to international peace and security, said that doing so constitutes a “clumsy attempt to rewrite the facts of the conflict”: that the Russian Federation is carrying out a full-scale war of aggression against its neighbour, while Ukraine is defending itself. Today’s meeting is a “painfully obvious” attempt to divert attention from such facts, he said, pointing out that although the Russian Federation has repeatedly denied that the Wagner Group was connected to the Russian State, President Vladimir Putin has now “nakedly admitted” that his Government fully funded the group, granting it $2 billion from State coffers this year alone.

The Russian Federation has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to abuse its position on the Council to promote falsehoods and to deliberately misguide the international community, including by today’s meeting, he added. Two weeks ago, an African delegation on a peace mission to Kyiv was forced to shelter in a bunker as missiles rained down, demonstrating the Russian Federation’s utter disinterest in peace and diplomacy, he said, adding that its acquisition of drones from Iran in violation of Council resolutions demonstrated its lack of genuine desire for de-escalation.

https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15340.doc.htm

 

[J-DONK]

We are back to magical thinking of an aggressive defensive pact.

This is a list of every single operation by NATO. This includes naval blockades, air campaigns, and peace keeping. It's a really short list with most of the serious actions taken post breakup of the Soviet Union.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NATo_Operations

I would argue with anyone on this board. The primary reason Russia invaded was the annexation of Crimea, and their only warm water deep harbor port. The second was to stop Ukraine from developing it's newly discovered gas, and oil fields in the black sea. If Ukraine was allowed to develop those resources fully it would have endangered Russia's influence over the entire region. A good example of this is Kazakhstan.

NATO has been bordering Russia for decades. I mean no offense, but the aggressive NATO line is a braindead take.

 

[efil4]

Lol he quotes CNN twice in 30 seconds ....sooooooo now CNN isn't Fake News?

I'm so confused.

 

[bdb13]

Imagine that being against war and wanting the war to end as some extreme position while you cheer on every decision by the US war machine.

Cluster bombs that have been banned by many counties. Biden giving Ukraine cluster bombs will probably get approval from the Ukraine war supporters.

I am against war and want this war to end as well and I do not cheer on every decision by the US war machine.

 

[LA - L.A.]

I am against war and want this war to end as well and I do not cheer on every decision by the US war machine.

I'm very much against war, because I don't think we can kill our way to a better world.

Ukraine is defending itself, so I support them in doing whatever they need to do to defend themselves from the attacking, Russian invaders.

Some of the same people who support the rights of people to own whatever guns they want so they can defend themselves from a POSSIBLE ATTACK are also complaining about Ukraine using whatever weapons they need to defend themselves from an ACTUAL ATTACK.

 

[DaveXA]

I agree with this post. Vote those idiots out.

 

[bdb13]

I'm very much against war, because I don't think we can kill our way to a better world.

Ukraine is defending itself, so I support them in doing whatever they need to do to defend themselves from the attacking, Russian invaders.

Some of the same people who support the rights of people to own whatever guns they want so they can defend themselves from a POSSIBLE ATTACK are also complaining about Ukraine using whatever weapons they need to defend themselves from an ACTUAL ATTACK.

Yes, it's the flawed logic or backwards view of this that's.. frustrating.. I guess.

If someone wants to just say "I don't think we should ever be involved in anything outside our borders that doesn't DIRECTLY impact us" then fine. I wouldn't agree but I can understand where they're coming from. Don't like the idea of NATO or a Western presence near Russia? OK, again I can at least understand the point of view even if I may not agree.

But it's the commitment to laying the blame at the feet of the US/West/NATO for Russia's launching of this war on Ukraine that's plainly incorrect. Are we clean? fork no. Obviously. But Putin was not forced into this position by the collective "us" and it's through only a skewed lens that one could see the realities and come to a different conclusion.

Russia made the decision to launch the war and to attack, kill, and terrorize innocent Ukrainians, probably with the thought in mind that the Western alliances would falter in the aftermath.. but thankfully that CLEARLY has not occurred and Russia/Putin's grand miscalculation here will be their downfall.

 

[SaintForLife]

I agree with this post. Vote those idiots out.

As someone said in the comments, why don't you want the war to end?

 

[SaintForLife]

I am against war and want this war to end as well and I do not cheer on every decision by the US war machine.

Oh okay. It's hard to tell that from your posts. Have you made any posts here critical of the war? I'm not saying you haven't. I just don't remember any of yall doing that much at all.

 

[bdb13]

Oh okay. It's hard to tell that from your posts. Have you made any posts here critical of the war? I'm not saying you haven't. I just don't remember any of yall doing that much at all.

Yes I have definitely been critical of Russia for starting the war.

 

[SaintForLife]

Yes I have definitely been critical of Russia for starting the war.

Any criticism of the US involvement in the war or are you okay with everything we've done?

 

[SaintForLife]

I agree with this post. Vote those idiots out.

No room for antiwar voices in Congress?

 

[bdb13]

Any criticism of the US involvement in the war or are you okay with everything we've done?

If you have anything specific you would like to point out I will try to familiarize myself and give a response but I'd say in general I support what we've done.

 

[SaintForLife]

If you have anything specific you would like to point out I will try to familiarize myself and give a response but I'd say in general I support what we've done.

It was just a general question. Nothing specific.

 

[bdb13]

It was just a general question. Nothing specific.

I want the war to end and I understand that concessions would possibly/likely need to be made in some regard on the Ukrainian end from current aims. However based upon what I know of the situation as of current I generally do not believe Ukraine should be giving up territory taken by Russia in the past year and a half in any sort of peace agreement; and I am not aware of there being a thought process out there that Russia would agree to something along those terms right now.

I could be wrong admittedly but I believe Ukraine can make gains from here and I believe pressure will continue to mount in Russia as the bodies continue to pile up. I want the war to end but I feel strongly that supporting Ukraine is the right move here and look, I'm not saying there wouldn't come a time in the next year or two where if this shirt just drags on in a stalemate where things wouldn't have to be reevaluated.. but I don't think we're there or real, real close to it right now.

 

[bdb13]

It was just a general question. Nothing specific.

I guess for a specific criticism that I might have it would be in regards to the slow rolling of weapons and all to Ukraine and that by doing so you probably extend out the war even if all goes right.. but there are obvious interests that had to be balanced there with Putin and so I'm not sure how much criticism to level there because it's all being played at such high stakes.