Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[efil4]

I want the war to end and I understand that concessions would possibly/likely need to be made in some regard on the Ukrainian end from current aims. However based upon what I know of the situation as of current I generally do not believe Ukraine should be giving up territory taken by Russia in the past year and a half in any sort of peace agreement; and I am not aware of there being a thought process out there that Russia would agree to something along those terms right now.

I could be wrong admittedly but I believe Ukraine can make gains from here and I believe pressure will continue to mount in Russia as the bodies continue to pile up. I want the war to end but I feel strongly that supporting Ukraine is the right move here and look, I'm not saying there wouldn't come a time in the next year or two where if this shirt just drags on in a stalemate where things wouldn't have to be reevaluated.. but I don't think we're there or real, real close to it right now.

Since SFL has me blocked ill just reply to this post in general ( not directly to you but a question nonetheless )

Do you think Crimea is Russia or Ukraine? Keep in mind Crimea was given to Ukraine in 1954 ...by Russia. Invaded by Russia, annexed illegally by Russia.

US/NAto supplies Ukraine with intelligence, logistics, armament to defend their sovereign land.

If support stops today, how does Ukraine fare?

 

[bdb13]

Since SFL has me blocked ill just reply to this post in general ( not directly to you but a question nonetheless )

Do you think Crimea is Russia or Ukraine? Keep in mind Crimea was given to Ukraine in 1954 ...by Russia. Invaded by Russia, annexed illegally by Russia.

US/NAto supplies Ukraine with intelligence, logistics, armament to defend their sovereign land.

If support stops today, how does Ukraine fare?

I would say I view it as Ukrainian in theory but not in practice right now and if there are signs that it can be taken then take it back but I also think there's a strong possibility that it just doesn't play out in a way where it's a realistic thing to see happen.

 

[efil4]

I would say I view it as Ukrainian in theory but not in practice right now and if there are signs that it can be taken then take it back but I also think there's a strong possibility that it just doesn't play out in a way where it's a realistic thing to see happen.

And I agree- ( except Crimea being Ukrainian was not a theory- it was sovereign Ukrainian land ) i think expelling Russian forces from Crimea will ONLY happen thru negotiations.

So now how does Ukraine get the leverage to do this? one idea is seizing Belgorod oblast at some point to give them "trading" clout. You want Belgorod back? Give us Crimea. The other is someone replaces Putin at some point and decides, as a gesture of goodwill, to return Crimea.

But Crimea is Ukraine- and once you operate from that starting point, things become clearer. Its when folks say " wellll.....idk- may have to give up....". Would we give up Texas to Mexico? ( well maybe not a good example- i would lol )

Anyway my point is this where Ukraine STARTS from - there is no negotiating this. This war, the UAF counter offensive ( which has only just begun ) is far from over. I suspect that when the full counter kicks off, things will become much clearer and Russia will have to make some quick, large decisions. One of those being Crimea.

 

[DaveXA]

As someone said in the comments, why don't you want the war to end?

Why doesn't Russia leave? Until they leave, you don't have a leg to stand on.

 

[DaveXA]

Any criticism of the US involvement in the war or are you okay with everything we've done?

I am, because NATO and the EU will have to deal with a belligerent Russia who has invaded a sovereign country who never asked for this in the first place. I'd rather stand up to bullies.

 

[DaveXA]

No room for antiwar voices in Congress?

Not at the expense of Ukraine losing their sovereignty.

 

[bdb13]

Not at the expense of Ukraine losing their sovereignty.

So I have old posts on SR where I was a Ron Paul supporter actually circa 2008.. not really a novelty at the time for a 20 year old white guy who was at least paying attention. The non-interventionalist ideas, in particular in the Middle East, were part of what resonated and I'd say as I've evolved politically that's at least something that's stuck with me.

If this were a country in the Middle East I'm pretty sure I'd be singing a different tune right now but I just think this situation with Ukraine is different in nature than us being entangled in something over there. And a big part of that frankly is that there's no real hope in the Middle East of going in there and installing some democracy or whatever, even if we should be doing that in the first place which is obviously very arguable.. it's just going to be some other forked up thing that replaces whatever forked up thing they currently have and there's just no real hope.

But that's not the situation in Ukraine, this is different and because of the nature of it I think it's morally justified on our end to support these people in this country who have been attacked.

I am anti-war which to me means I am anti-unjustified war. Ukraine is justified in their end of this and I support them. This stuff can be framed however depending upon the point of view but a black and white pro-war or anti-war label doesn't really give leeway to the complexities of the world unless you're absolutely committed to one or the other at the extremes.

 

[CoolBrees]

I was arrested protesting the Iraq War. Three times.

I have never owned a gun, and consider myself a pacifist.

I am as against the Russian invasion as I would have been when Germany invaded Poland.

Russia annexed Crimea and invaded Donbas.... in 2014. This war has been going on ever since. To act like we are behind it now is to totally dismiss history.

Russia did it to Georgia in 08. They invaded nations only about three to five years slower than Hitler in 38.

It wasn't until Russia escalated the war - 8 years in - with a full fledged invasion with the stated goal of taking Kiyyv that anyone in the US even noticed. The idea that anyone in this country gave a shirt about Ukraine prior is laughable.

When Putin invaded, We stood by and watched. For weeks, we did nothing.

Then, and only when it became apparent that the Ukrainians were going to put up a fight and literally begged the world for help did we answer the bell.

And gave them the weapons systems that are part of the normal military equipment draw down. So we can buy more the next year. And so on. It is our old stuff we don't even use.

You can accuse us of hard diplomacy with Ukraine. You can accuse us of being opportunistic. But Russia brought this on their Imperialist selves.

The fact we have people in this country who love and support Putin isn't surprising. We have plenty of Nazi sympathizers too.

 

[J-DONK]

And I agree- ( except Crimea being Ukrainian was not a theory- it was sovereign Ukrainian land ) i think expelling Russian forces from Crimea will ONLY happen thru negotiations.

So now how does Ukraine get the leverage to do this? one idea is seizing Belgorod oblast at some point to give them "trading" clout. You want Belgorod back? Give us Crimea. The other is someone replaces Putin at some point and decides, as a gesture of goodwill, to return Crimea.

But Crimea is Ukraine- and once you operate from that starting point, things become clearer. Its when folks say " wellll.....idk- may have to give up....". Would we give up Texas to Mexico? ( well maybe not a good example- i would lol )

Anyway my point is this where Ukraine STARTS from - there is no negotiating this. This war, the UAF counter offensive ( which has only just begun ) is far from over. I suspect that when the full counter kicks off, things will become much clearer and Russia will have to make some quick, large decisions. One of those being Crimea.

Man I don't know that Russia will negotiate. They are so high on their own propaganda. It's unreal. The recent strike on the general, and FSB officers + families at that stamp plant. Who moves families, and government officials into an active war zone? My thoughts are Ukraine will have to blow the bridge, and going after naval assets in the black sea.

 

[DaveXA]

I was arrested protesting the Iraq War. Three times.

I have never owned a gun, and consider myself a pacifist.

I am as against the Russian invasion as I would have been when Germany invaded Poland.

Russia annexed Crimea and invaded Donbas.... in 2014. This war has been going on ever since. To act like we are behind it now is to totally dismiss history.

Russia did it to Georgia in 08. They invaded nations only about three to five years slower than Hitler in 38.

It wasn't until Russia escalated the war - 8 years in - with a full fledged invasion with the stated goal of taking Kiyyv that anyone in the US even noticed. The idea that anyone in this country gave a shirt about Ukraine prior is laughable.

When Putin invaded, We stood by and watched. For weeks, we did nothing.

Then, and only when it became apparent that the Ukrainians were going to put up a fight and literally begged the world for help did we answer the bell.

And gave them the weapons systems that are part of the normal military equipment draw down. So we can buy more the next year. And so on. It is our old stuff we don't even use.

You can accuse us of hard diplomacy with Ukraine. You can accuse us of being opportunistic. But Russia brought this on their Imperialist selves.

The fact we have people in this country who love and support Putin isn't surprising. We have plenty of Nazi sympathizers too.

Well, I really think what turned the tables for Ukraine is Zelensky. He didn't become President of Ukraine until 2019. And most people didn't know who he was and people didn't take him seriously until he stood firm and started making regular appearances stating they were going to fight and asking for help from NATO and other allies when Russia started bearing down on Kyiv.

I'm not so sure we'd be where we are with Ukraine without his leadership.

All that said, the only reason we're where we are now is solely due to Russia's open war on Ukraine. The war ends when Russia stands down and returns Ukrainian territory back to Ukraine.

 

[bdb13]

Well, I really think what turned the tables for Ukraine is Zelensky. He didn't become President of Ukraine until 2019. And most people didn't know who he was and people didn't take him seriously until he stood firm and started making regular appearances stating they were going to fight and asking for help from NATO and other allies when Russia started bearing down on Kyiv.

I'm not so sure we'd be where we are with Ukraine without his leadership.

All that said, the only reason we're where we are now is solely due to Russia's open war on Ukraine. The war ends when Russia stands down and returns Ukrainian territory back to Ukraine.

If he initially runs this entire thing imo plays out differently.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Any criticism of the US involvement in the war or are you okay with everything we've done?

I'm against war. We can't kill our way to a better world. When under ACTUAL ATTACK we have a need and a right to defend ourselves.

Russia attacked Ukraine. No one had attacked Russia. Russia has no need, right or justification for attacking Ukraine.

I'm very critical of the US response to Russia's unjust attack on Ukraine. I think the US should have immediately given Ukraine everything it needed to repel Russia's attack, including implementing a no fly zone and shutting down the skies from Russian attacks.

Everyone loses a protracted war. That's Sun Tzu "The Art of War" 101 level stuff. We have allowed this war to be protracted and it has caused tens of thousands of unneccary deaths of Ukrainians, Russians and people of other nationalities.

The "it'll be nuclear war man" argument was and still is BS. If it's true that Putin will result to nukes before suffering a defeat in Ukraine, then that means there are only two possible outcomes of the war:

• Putin wins the war and oppresses the people of Ukraine
• Putin starts a nuclear war

I'm not willing to sacrifice the freedom of the people of Ukraine, or any other people on the planet, so that I can sleep comfortably with a false sense of security and certainty. If someone gives me a gun and says "you have to shoot them or I shoot you," that person better be faster than me, because they're the person I'm going to try to shoot every time. I rather die defending against an aggressor, than sacrifice someone else's life so that I can keep living.

I don't want to live in a world were we allow atrocities to be committed against people, so that we can feel safe from being the victims of atrocities. None of us deserve to live if we can't figure out a way for everyone to live free and in peace.

I'm shocked and disappointed that Cornel West is saying what he's saying. He of all people should understand and empathize with Ukrainians who are fighting to remain alive and free.

 

[MT15]

Yep, when we offered him safe passage out of country, and he responded that he didn’t need a ride, he needed ammunition, well, I feel like that will make the history books. If we are allowed to have history books. Only half kidding.

The number of people who were “mobilized” immediately to project support for Putin in the US is truly eye-opening. Every one of them should be considered a Russian asset, IMO, whether witting or not. Includes almost SFL’s entire Twitter feed, lol. But seriously, they are. That includes West, also. Greenwald, Taibbi, Carlson. All pro-Putin. None can be viewed the same way again.

We have a huge contingent of Pro-Putin folks in this country, and that’s no accident, IMO. And yes, I realize some of them don’t reside in the US, but their market is the US, they are trying like hell to influence the US.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Well, I really think what turned the tables for Ukraine is Zelensky. He didn't become President of Ukraine until 2019. And most people didn't know who he was and people didn't take him seriously until he stood firm and started making regular appearances stating they were going to fight and asking for help from NATO and other allies when Russia started bearing down on Kyiv.

I'm not so sure we'd be where we are with Ukraine without his leadership.

All that said, the only reason we're where we are now is solely due to Russia's open war on Ukraine. The war ends when Russia stands down and returns Ukrainian territory back to Ukraine.

Zelensky winning the election is exactly why Russia launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Zelensky was elected by the majority of voters, because he promised to clean up corruption in Ukraine, most of which was sponsored by Russian oligarchs for their benefit at the detriment of the people of Ukraine.

Zelensky was delivering on that promise. Putin and the Russian oligarchs weren't having any part of that, so they launched an invasion to put the Ukrainian people in their place. They arrogantly thought they'd just roll into Kyiv and kill Zelensky and the other heads of state. They made a grave mistake, like arrogant people ultimately do.

 

[efil4]

Man I don't know that Russia will negotiate. They are so high on their own propaganda. It's unreal. The recent strike on the general, and FSB officers + families at that stamp plant. Who moves families, and government officials into an active war zone? My thoughts are Ukraine will have to blow the bridge, and going after naval assets in the black sea.

Very possible that they will have to engage RuAF inside Crimea. I just hope we have provided them with the proper/quantity intelligence, arms and training.

UAF continue to do things we thought not possible from day 1 of this conflict. I wouldn't bet against them in their bid for Crimea. They have the resolve to see this to the end.

 

[DaveXA]

If he initially runs this entire thing imo plays out differently.

Quite possibly. Hadn't really thought about that.

 

[MT15]

An important distinction is made here. Warning, language:

 

[UriUT]

Thread by @neil_abrams on Thread Reader App

@neil_abrams: My point, Aaron, is that you *don’t actually care* about the people affected by these conflicts. You do care about exploiting their suffering to make a name for yourself. But you don’t care about them....…

threadreaderapp.com

I caught this on the Ukraine thread on reddit/worldnews. He's one of the voices I miss reading on twitter. [edit: I should've described the thread. Neil Abrams tore into Aaron Mate's faux outrage over cluster munitions and his general hypocrisy on the Russian invasion.]

Note that when when someone says, "I want peace in this Russian war of aggression", that person is trying to muddy the moral compass and drag someone who defends and wants to aid Ukraine in their war to their pathetic moral level. No much worse, they are trying to say they are morally superior. They cannot point out the atrocities Russians committed (from Bucha to the constant attacks on civilian targets to deporting Ukrainian children). They don't really want peace...as Russia refuses to negotiate. And to describe this war as a "proxy war" is doing the exact thing. They are trying to equate the US actions to the same level as that of the Russians. Again, if the US stops their aid, Russia will continue their atrocities and Ukrainians will defend but without the tools to defend themselves...and likely resulting in many more deaths. Imagine how Russia treats their own troops. One would think that these aggressors would treat Ukrainians much worse.