Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[bdb13]

Saintforlife probably thinks this is the perfect time for Ukraine to give up its territory in a peace deal with Russia.

 

[Lapaz]

I wonder if Putin sees this as a way out. He can say that they were doing fine until this traitor led a revolt, and that’s why he had to start pulling some troops out of Ukraine.

I think it is a good idea for Putin to use this to save face.

 

[Booker]

I’m seeing MAGA tweets that this is an obvious diversion launched by the White House to draw attention away from Hunter Biden and impeachment votes.

It’s genuinely sad how utterly self-absorbed and deluded they are that every world event filters back through this little lens of their perception. It’s such an odd, modern form of stupidity.

Just a bunch of delusional sad sack mother forkers.

 

[zztop]

Freedom of Russia Legion announces another raid on Russian territory

The Freedom of Russia Legion has announced another raid on the territory of the Russian Federation.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[UriUT]

How Putin Cannibalizes Russian Economy to Survive Personally

Putin’s financial lifeline has his merciless cannibalization of Russian economic productivity. It's unsustainable

time.com

But energy prices across both oil and natural gas are now cheaper today than before the invasion, as are grain, wheat, lumber, metals, and practically every commodity that Russia produces. Amidst lower commodity prices across the board, thanks in part to the effective G7 oil price cap, Russia is now barely breaking even on oil sales with unwanted Russian Urals oil trading at a persistent discount but continuing to flow in ample volumes – exactly as it was designed. In short, the world has now largely replaced Russian supplies so commodity exports are no boon to a desperate Russia right now.

With flexing from maga that oil/gas price was cheaper in 2020 without an ounce of nuanced understanding, here’s something that may be missed. The Price cap imposed by developed countries on Ural oil has significantly increased oil supply despite the Saudis announcing production cuts. Even though Russia is barely selling over cost, they indubitably have flooded the market to balance their budget. It’s incredible how effective the price cap has been. Destroying Russian revenue without damaging the world energy market.

Of course the uncertainty of the global economy also fuels the low demand.

 

[SaintForLife]

Saintforlife probably thinks this is the perfect time for Ukraine to give up its territory in a peace deal with Russia.

Imagine that being against war and wanting the war to end as some extreme position while you cheer on every decision by the US war machine.

Cluster bombs that have been banned by many counties. Biden giving Ukraine cluster bombs will probably get approval from the Ukraine war supporters.

 

[DaveXA]

Imagine that being against war and wanting the war to end as some extreme position while you cheer on every decision by the US war machine.

Cluster bombs that have been banned by many counties. Biden giving Ukraine cluster bombs will probably get approval from the Ukraine war supporters.

Lots of ignorance abounds about cluster bombs. One, Russia has used them on Ukrainian civilians. 2. Little is being said about the type of cluster munitions the US is planning to send to Ukraine. They're actually a smaller version that are fired from arty wepons via 155m shells. 3. Ukraine has the right to defend their land how they see fit. If they're not using them on Russian territory, what exactly is the problem here?

The whole thing is essentially a red herring and a distraction.

And fwiw, at least 1 other country sent them cluster bombs last year.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Lots of ignorance abounds about cluster bombs. One, Russia has used them on Ukrainian civilians. 2. Little is being said about the type of cluster munitions the US is planning to send to Ukraine. They're actually a smaller version that are fired from arty wepons via 155m shells. 3. Ukraine has the right to defend their land how they see fit. If they're not using them on Russian territory, what exactly is the problem here?

The whole thing is essentially a red herring and a distraction.

And fwiw, at least 1 other country sent them cluster bombs last year.

This is completely correct. The only reason cluster munitions are banned by countries is because the leave behind "dirty" battlefields, which are battlefields littered with unexploded ordinances after the war and battles are over.

I think cluster munitions should be avoided for that reason.

Russia has already covered the Ukrainian battlefields with cluster munitions and mines. Being concerned about US cluster munitions "dirtying" Ukrainian battlefields is like worry that a 3 gallon bag of trash is going to "dirty" an existing landfill.

 

[SaintForLife]

Lots of ignorance abounds about cluster bombs. One, Russia has used them on Ukrainian civilians. 2. Little is being said about the type of cluster munitions the US is planning to send to Ukraine. They're actually a smaller version that are fired from arty wepons via 155m shells. 3. Ukraine has the right to defend their land how they see fit. If they're not using them on Russian territory, what exactly is the problem here?

The whole thing is essentially a red herring and a distraction.

And fwiw, at least 1 other country sent them cluster bombs last year.

What about the Democrats past statements about how bad cluster bombs are? Did they all change their minds?

Russia uses something bad in war and that can be used to justify repeating that bad action?

Are you naive enough to believe Ukraine’s assertion that they will only use it in particular areas?

Oh we are sending them smaller cluster bombs? Does that make the use of them any better?

 

[DaveXA]

What about the Democrats past statements about how bad cluster bombs are? Did they all change their minds?

What about it?

Russia uses something bad in war and that can be used to justify repeating that bad action?

No, it's how they use it on civilians in another sovereign nation that is the problem. The Ukranians would be using it specifically on Russian targets in Ukraine.

Are you naive enough to believe Ukraine’s assertion that they will only use it in particular areas?

Yes, I believe them far more than anything out of Putin's mouth.

Oh we are sending them smaller cluster bombs? Does that make the use of them any better?

Yes.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

What about the Democrats past statements about how bad cluster bombs are? Did they all change their minds?

Russia uses something bad in war and that can be used to justify repeating that bad action?

Are you naive enough to believe Ukraine’s assertion that they will only use it in particular areas?

Oh we are sending them smaller cluster bombs? Does that make the use of them any better?

So, ALL Democrats are against cluster bombs now???

Members of the Democratic Party aren't a single-minded entity and those that are against them are likely still against them. That doesn't change the fact that those weapons are still in our inventory and being used in US combat operations to this day.

As for Ukraine's employment of these weapons, as long as they continue to follow the Laws of Armed Conflict, I don't care where they use them.

 

[SamAndreas]

What about the Democrats past statements about how bad cluster bombs are? Did they all change their minds?

Russia uses something bad in war and that can be used to justify repeating that bad action?

Are you naive enough to believe Ukraine’s assertion that they will only use it in particular areas?

Oh we are sending them smaller cluster bombs? Does that make the use of them any better?

I'm a Democrat. I have no past statements about cluster bombs to explain. So I guess I didn't change my mind.

I'm not a "tie one hand behind my back" kind. If Russia is using them it would be kind of silly to not consider using them. Or using something else equally lethal to counter that lethal usage.

I don't think Ukraine is situated to use them in any area but that one particular kind of area. It's Russia who attacks their occupied town and cities, Ukraine doesn't attack their own. So your question about that is moot.

We aren't sending them smaller cluster bombs. We're giving them cluster 155 mm shells. They aren't bombs. Shells are very short range, requiring a gun be on the field near where they are used. Bombs are delivered by aircraft. Aircraft can have very long range.

 

[DaveXA]

I'm a Democrat. I have no past statements about cluster bombs to explain. So I guess I didn't change my mind.

I'm not a "tie one hand behind my back" kind. If Russia is using them it would be kind of silly to not consider using them. Or using something else equally lethal to counter that lethal usage.

I don't think Ukraine is situated to use them in any area but that one particular kind of area. It's Russia who attacks their occupied town and cities, Ukraine doesn't attack their own. So your question about that is moot.

We aren't sending them smaller cluster bombs. We're giving them cluster 155 mm shells. They aren't bombs. Shells are very short range, requiring a gun be on the field near where they are used. Bombs are delivered by aircraft. Aircraft can have very long range.

Yep, and why I called them munitions, not bombs. Agreed 100%.

 

[efil4]

What about the Democrats past statements about how bad cluster bombs are? Did they all change their minds?

Russia uses something bad in war and that can be used to justify repeating that bad action?

Are you naive enough to believe Ukraine’s assertion that they will only use it in particular areas?

Oh we are sending them smaller cluster bombs? Does that make the use of them any better?

You know next to nothing other than what you are told to parrot to tote your company line.

Comrade.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Damn those warmongering Democrats Michael McCaul & Tom Cotton! Damn them both to Tartarus!

A top House Republican backs Biden’s decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine, while a prominent Democrat disagrees | CNN Politics

A top House Republican said Sunday he agreed with the Biden administration’s contentious decision to supply cluster munitions to Ukraine as part of a new military aid package, while a prominent progressive Democrat said the US risks “losing our moral leadership” over the move.

www.cnn.com

Tom Cotton is supporting the Biden administration's decision to provide Ukraine with cluster munitions. But a few Democrats are forcefully opposing the move.

News and analysis from Capitol Hill for when you only have a few minutes, from POLITICO.

www.politico.com

 

[MT15]

It really amazes me the amount of knowledge that we have here. I learn something nearly every day.

 

[SaintForLife]

 

[MT15]

So can you explain what this agency is, what is its mission, and how have its funds been used in the past, or no?