Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[MT15]

 

[MT15]

 

[LA - L.A.]

Well, the entire Wagner group has left Ukraine, if they are telling the truth.

I hope that the world's intelligence agencies are being hyper-vigilant about monitoring known Russian tactical nuke locations for two reasons. The first being the possibility of a ruse as I stated. The second being that if Putin feels like he's about to be taken out by a coup, his personality creates the risk that he'll start throwing nukes around to take as many people down with him as he can.

That's always been the greatest threat by Putin, not that he would gain significant global domination, but will screw the whole world if he's ever threatened with losing the power that he had.

I'd be happy beyond words if expressing my concerns jinx me into looking like a fool for having the concerns that I have.

 

[MT15]

I don’t remember where I saw it - but I saw that the Wagner guy was very specifically threatening the Russian military leadership but said not a word about Putin directly. My speculation is that one reason for that is that Putin is fine with him taking out his generals - maybe Putin got wind of a planned rebellion? Putin has been completely silent here. Who knows? Could be almost anything.

 

[MT15]

 

[Lapaz]

I don’t remember where I saw it - but I saw that the Wagner guy was very specifically threatening the Russian military leadership but said not a word about Putin directly. My speculation is that one reason for that is that Putin is fine with him taking out his generals - maybe Putin got wind of a planned rebellion? Putin has been completely silent here. Who knows? Could be almost anything.

If the Wagner group is attacking Russian forces and takes out some generals, Ukrainians should be able to gain a lot of ground. Is it possible that the West is paying the Wagner group to revolt, since they don’t want to be seen attacking Russia themselves?

 

[MT15]

 

[MT15]

If the Wagner group is attacking Russian forces and takes out some generals, Ukrainians should be able to gain a lot of ground. Is it possible that the West is paying the Wagner group to revolt, since they don’t want to be seen attacking Russia themselves?

I doubt it. Someone mentioned that to Tom Nichols and he didn’t seem to think that was a real possibility.

 

[MT15]

I don’t know if it’s true or not, I block every troll I see and have my settings adjusted to not see as many to begin with. But I find this interesting if true.

 

[superchuck500]

I don’t know if it’s true or not, I block every troll I see and have my settings adjusted to not see as many to begin with. But I find this interesting if true.

I’m seeing MAGA tweets that this is an obvious diversion launched by the White House to draw attention away from Hunter Biden and impeachment votes.

It’s genuinely sad how utterly self-absorbed and deluded they are that every world event filters back through this little lens of their perception. It’s such an odd, modern form of stupidity.

 

[UriUT]

Biden is both senile and inept and an evil genius at the same time.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Biden is both senile and inept and an evil genius at the same time.

Yeah, he's crazy like a demented fox.

 

[UriUT]

This whole push towards Moscow by Wagner feels similarly to the ISIS push in Iraq and Syria. A small detachment driving through vast territory because those that are suppose to resist are just afraid to engage. If I'm part of a small checkpoint group, why would I resist against tanks?



edit: and the a mix of civilian trucks in the assault. Damn the Russian military is embarrassing.

 

[UriUT]

Putin says Wagner mutiny is 'treason' in televised address

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an emergency televised address on Saturday that an "armed mutiny" by the Wagner Group mercenary force was treason, and that anyone who had taken up arms against the Russian military would be punished. He said he would do

post.news

There it is. Putin has thrown down his own gauntlet. Who's left to help him? There are reports of some army units refusing to leave their barracks. Crazy time we live.

 

[MT15]

Putin says Wagner mutiny is 'treason' in televised address

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an emergency televised address on Saturday that an "armed mutiny" by the Wagner Group mercenary force was treason, and that anyone who had taken up arms against the Russian military would be punished. He said he would do

post.news

There it is. Putin has thrown down his own gauntlet. Who's left to help him? There are reports of some army units refusing to leave their barracks. Crazy time we live.

Wagner guy is claiming that various units of the Russian army have joined with them.

 

[UriUT]

Wagner guy is claiming that various units of the Russian army have joined with them.

Yeah, neither Prigozhin nor Putin should be believed. Both are terrorists and war criminals.

Remember that Wagner acts like isis and its not an exaggeration.

 

[UriUT]

Post Article

post.news

First rule of being a dictator: don’t let anyone else have an army.

Heck, goes for us too. <cough> Erik prince and Blackwater pmc.

 

[FullMonte]

I wonder if Putin sees this as a way out. He can say that they were doing fine until this traitor led a revolt, and that’s why he had to start pulling some troops out of Ukraine.