Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[MT15]

So, not some spy, just an alt-right incel soldier with a security clearance looking to impress his online buddies. . I hope they throw the book at him.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

So, not some spy, just an alt-right incel soldier with a security clearance looking to impress his online buddies. . I hope they throw the book at him.

Shocked, I tell you...Shocked!!!

 

[FullMonte]

So, not some spy, just an alt-right incel soldier with a security clearance looking to impress his online buddies. . I hope they throw the book at him.

Why? This guy is no enemy of the US. If you doubt that, just ask one of the members of the House Intelligence Committee.

 

[MT15]

MTG can join him, because she also hates America.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Why? This guy is no enemy of the US. If you doubt that, just ask one of the members of the House Intelligence Committee.

Apparently this guy, Jake Teixeira, is racist. Charming all the way around huh?

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Why? This guy is no enemy of the US. If you doubt that, just ask one of the members of the House Intelligence Committee.

That stupid piece of has no idea what taking an oath to office means! That "white, male, Christian and anti-war" Guardsman took an oath and was entrusted by this nation and he betrayed both his oath and this country. If we were at war, he would be shot on sight and I would rejoice at that outcome.

She has shown herself, time and again, that she is not fit to hold any position in public service. That ignorant arse tweet should have her on the floor of Congress facing charges of advocating treason against The United States.

 

[DaveXA]

Why? This guy is no enemy of the US. If you doubt that, just ask one of the members of the House Intelligence Committee.

Lol, she's bald faced lying. What a pretentious idiot.

 

[nolaspe]

Oh look, tucker gonna tucker as usual as an orc shill...

 

[DaveXA]

Oh look, tucker gonna tucker as usual as an orc shill...

Lol, no Tucker, it's straight up illegal to leak classified documents and intel. There's really no gray area there. But I'm fine with you making yourself look like an ignorant idiot. Keep shilling for Poots. He might notice you at some point.

 

[MT15]

Not only that, but he took the doctored document, where it switched the number of casualties between Russia and Ukraine to make it look like Ukraine was having 7 times the number of casualties as Russia, and ran with it as if it was true on his show. I put the tweet about it in the media watch thread.

He’s a straight up Russian propagandist, there’s no doubt about it.

 

[FullMonte]

Lol, no Tucker, it's straight up illegal to leak classified documents and intel. There's really no gray area there. But I'm fine with you making yourself look like an ignorant idiot. Keep shilling for Poots. He might notice you at some point.

Come on man…they can’t support arresting and prosecuting this man for his intentional mishandling of classified documents. Not while there is this other orange guy who is being looked at for something similar…

 

[MT15]

Here’s the tweet about Tucker lying about the stats:

 

[MT15]

Another pro-Kremlin social media account.

 

[MT15]

A little more info about this woman, recently a member of our armed forces, who became a pro-Kremlin influencer on social media.

 

[MT15]

The people on TV this morning pegged this as probably a false narrative.

 

[SamAndreas]

I usually post in the Ukraine War thread at the main board. But this post goes political.

The topic is about that group of exile Russians who are aligned with Ukraine who have invaded Russia in the Belgorod area about two days ago.

They are made up of three groups, not just two, they are aligned with each other due to having a common enemy, but not aligned politically, however they all three reluctantly work though IIya Ponomarev as their spokesperson.

Ponomarev I would describe as similar to a Democrat, liberal, pro LBGT rights. He was the only member of the Russian Duma who didn't support that Russian gay propaganda law in 2013. That law is similar to what the RW in the US has been enacting in red states in the US, they don't say gay thing. The difference being in Russia it was so popular that it would have been enacted unanimously but for Ponomarev, and that failure to go "moo" when all others were going "moo" lead to his exile, first in California and then in Ukraine. Here is his Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilya_Ponomarev

In addition to that link this link provides some information about the accord the groups have with each other: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irpin_Declaration there is information there that I question about Ponomarev being involved in calling for the assassination of Zelenskyy. That part seems to be created by a reported association with "A Just Russia" group when other indications suggest that is not the case. It is that group who called for Zelenskyy's assassination.

The three groups are, the Freedom of Russia Legion, alongside the National Republican Army and the Russian Volunteer Corps. Wikipedia in line links to those groups are embedded in that sentence above.

1)The Freedom of Russia group is mentioned the most in the news about the incursion, they aim to take Moscow and overthrow Putin. They are the best organized, largest, and although I have not gotten a firm impression of their political stance I think it is compatible with Ponomarev's views, and many of ours. Most of their troops have come from people who deserted from the Russian army. I hope they are by far the largest of these groups, otherwise I would worry more about what might happen if they do overthrow Putin and take over Russia.


2)The National Republican Army is a group of Russians in Russia, they are the ones who claimed credit for being behind the assassination of Darya Dugina last August. They're most active deep in Russia starting many of those fires. I've read their manifesto and from it I can't tell how left, to right, or communist they are. Here if is, you'll have use your browser to translate it:

Роспартизан

ЗАЯВЛЕНИЕ НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ РЕСПУБЛИКАНСКОЙ АРМИИ (НРА) ОТ 21.08.2022 Мы, российские активисты, военные и политики, ныне партизаны и бойцы Национальной Республиканской Армии, ставим вне закона поджигателей войны, грабителей и угнетателей народов России! Мы объявляем президента Путина узурпатором...

web.archive.org

I don't think they are that involved with the border incursion, however they might give some indication of what these groups might do politically if they overthrow Putin. So far though they mostly seem to cause problems for Russia by starting many fires.


3) The Russian Volunteer Corps I would describe as White Nationalist Nazis. I would NOT like them to take over Russia even if they do get rid of Putin. They mostly recruit troops from Russians in Russia or who are in exile in Ukraine. I hope they are a small group. Wikipedia doesn't say how many they are.

 

[CoolBrees]

I usually post in the Ukraine War thread at the main board. But this post goes political.

The topic is about that group of exile Russians who are aligned with Ukraine who have invaded Russia in the Belgorod area about two days ago.

They are made up of three groups, not just two, they are aligned with each other due to having a common enemy, but not aligned politically, however they all three reluctantly work though IIya Ponomarev as their spokesperson.

Ponomarev I would describe as similar to a Democrat, liberal, pro LBGT rights. He was the only member of the Russian Duma who didn't support that Russian gay propaganda law in 2013. That law is similar to what the RW in the US has been enacting in red states in the US, they don't say gay thing. The difference being in Russia it was so popular that it would have been enacted unanimously but for Ponomarev, and that failure to go "moo" when all others were going "moo" lead to his exile, first in California and then in Ukraine. Here is his Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilya_Ponomarev

In addition to that link this link provides some information about the accord the groups have with each other: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irpin_Declaration there is information there that I question about Ponomarev being involved in calling for the assassination of Zelenskyy. That part seems to be created by a reported association with "A Just Russia" group when other indications suggest that is not the case. It is that group who called for Zelenskyy's assassination.

The three groups are, the Freedom of Russia Legion, alongside the National Republican Army and the Russian Volunteer Corps. Wikipedia in line links to those groups are embedded in that sentence above.

1)The Freedom of Russia group is mentioned the most in the news about the incursion, they aim to take Moscow and overthrow Putin. They are the best organized, largest, and although I have not gotten a firm impression of their political stance I think it is compatible with Ponomarev's views, and many of ours. Most of their troops have come from people who deserted from the Russian army. I hope they are by far the largest of these groups, otherwise I would worry more about what might happen if they do overthrow Putin and take over Russia.


2)The National Republican Army is a group of Russians in Russia, they are the ones who claimed credit for being behind the assassination of Darya Dugina last August. They're most active deep in Russia starting many of those fires. I've read their manifesto and from it I can't tell how left, to right, or communist they are. Here if is, you'll have use your browser to translate it:

Роспартизан

ЗАЯВЛЕНИЕ НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ РЕСПУБЛИКАНСКОЙ АРМИИ (НРА) ОТ 21.08.2022 Мы, российские активисты, военные и политики, ныне партизаны и бойцы Национальной Республиканской Армии, ставим вне закона поджигателей войны, грабителей и угнетателей народов России! Мы объявляем президента Путина узурпатором...

web.archive.org

I don't think they are that involved with the border incursion, however they might give some indication of what these groups might do politically if they overthrow Putin. So far though they mostly seem to cause problems for Russia by starting many fires.


3) The Russian Volunteer Corps I would describe as White Nationalist Nazis. I would NOT like them to take over Russia even if they do get rid of Putin. They mostly recruit troops from Russians in Russia or who are in exile in Ukraine. I hope they are a small group. Wikipedia doesn't say how many they are.

I don’t think you would have any issue posting this on the EE. Obviously moderators can correct me if I am wrong but that didn’t seem to cross the political lines that aren’t to be crossed - ie US politics.

There was no blaming of one party or partisan opinion about money or our involvement. None of the articles were hit pieces.

Think this is really good info personally

 

[SamAndreas]

I don’t think you would have any issue posting this on the EE. Obviously moderators can correct me if I am wrong but that didn’t seem to cross the political lines that aren’t to be crossed - ie US politics.

There was no blaming of one party or partisan opinion about money or our involvement. None of the articles were hit pieces.

Think this is really good info personally

I think I put it where it should go. My post supplies information, but it also poses the question, are these groups, groups that I want to support. When I say what I want to support that naturally calls for other people to say what they want to support.

There is no way at that point that the discussion could avoid US politics. It simply must be a factor in such a discussion.

I think Ponomarev is a liberal in sense that he'd be an alright Democrat here. He was here, living just a few miles to the west of me for a year or so before moving to Ukraine. He's the current political leader insofar as there appears to be one.

Any group that takes over Russia is going to be fairly conservative at best. They are conservative people. Democrats are fairly conservative people too, most of them. Only conservative Republicans think average Democrat is beyond the pale. That is rhetoric, it isn't real.

The Freedom of Russia Legion appears to be mostly enemy of my enemy is my friend, but I don't know if they'd be like moderate Democrats here, or moderate Republicans. Probably a mix. I'm not afraid of them.

The National Republican Army kind of sound like they'd be a bit Republican leaning, maybe as far to the right as MAGA hat Republicans. But I'm not sure, their manifesto left me feeling like I don't know, more than any part I do know after having read it. I am worried that if their movement takes off in Russia that politically it will center around them.

The Russian Volunteer group I am afraid of, totally and completely, dear god let us not have them.