Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[DaveXA]

I figured I'd drop this Trump hilarity and nonsense here.

 

[efil4]

I figured I'd drop this Trump hilarity and nonsense here.

im convinced that Putin hatched "Kyiv in 3 days" when Trump was still POTUS and running for re-election, thinking Trump would be re-elected and the war indeed would have lasted 3 days since Trump would have balked at any initial assistance and put pressure on other allies to follow suit.

He is the worst.

 

[DaveXA]

im convinced that Putin hatched "Kyiv in 3 days" when Trump was still POTUS and running for re-election, thinking Trump would be re-elected and the war indeed would have lasted 3 days since Trump would have balked at any initial assistance and put pressure on other allies to follow suit.

He is the worst.

Yep.

 

[MT15]

Seeing reports popping up on Twitter.

 

[Lapaz]

I figured I'd drop this Trump hilarity and nonsense here.

My translation service believes that Trump is saying that we should get even more involved. I think he meant that we should help Ukraine with our planes that are not 44 years old.

 

[MT15]

Hmmm…..something appears to be up.

 

[MT15]

I don’t think the news is covering this yet:

 

[MT15]

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Maybe they'll kill themselves.

 

[Saintamaniac]

Maybe they'll kill themselves.

MAGA Russiablicans across the US are very concerned about this latest development. I'm sure they are praying to their MAGA god right now to protect their precious Putin.

 

[MT15]

It’s not clear that the Wagner guy is telling the truth about where he is or what he is doing, but they have decided to stiffen defenses in Moscow anyway. Apparently. Who knows what is really happening?

 

[MT15]

 

[MT15]

 

[MT15]

To funny (and true) to not share:

 

[MT15]

A note of caution:

 

[MT15]

 

[LA - L.A.]

I hope intelligence is monitoring if Wagner and non-scripted Russian troops are pulling back from the front lines in Ukraine. If they are, then all of this could be a ruse to move valued Russian troops a safe distance from the front lines in Ukraine before using tactical nukes.

The global military community has indicated they believe that the Ukrainian offensive will gain momentum and make significant advances, even though it's a slow slugfest at the moment.

 

[MT15]

I hope intelligence is monitoring if Wagner and non-scripted Russian troops are pulling back from the front lines in Ukraine. If they are, then all of this could be a ruse to move valued Russian troops a safe distance from the front lines in Ukraine before using tactical nukes.

The global military community has indicated they believe that the Ukrainian offensive will gain momentum and make significant advances, even though it's a slow slugfest at the moment.

Well, the entire Wagner group has left Ukraine, if they are telling the truth.