Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (5 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[superchuck500]

This is the kind of thing that you can’t announce unless you’re sure it’s right - but damn that sucks too.

 

[brandon]

This is the kind of thing that you can’t announce unless you’re sure it’s right - but damn that sucks too.

Yea. It was one thing when we were talking an annexation of Russian-speaking territory a la Crimea. It’s bullshirt, but there’s precedent for largely letting it happen, implementing sanctions, and moving on.

If Russia literally topples Kyiv, it’s a whole different ballgame.

 

[MT15]

It says target not topple. One could argue Putin is already targeting Kyiv with cyberattacks, and has been for some time.

(I don’t want to make it seem worse than it already is, it’s bad enough on its own.)

 

[H B Lowrey]

So, you don’t see the difference between these two positions:

A. Ukraine should be prohibited from joining NATO. Moreover, several other sovereign nations who have joined NATO should be expelled agains their wishes.

B. Ukraine should make their own decision about joining NATO. If they can meet the requirements then it should be their decision whether to apply. Sovereign nations should make their own decisions about joining alliances or not.

I was referring to our own militarism and nation destabilization efforts. I haven't gotten a say in any of that either. Did you?

 

[samiam5211]

Our policy towards Russia should be regime change. Anything else is a waste of our time.

 

[superchuck500]

Nice five minute summary of the history.

 

[superchuck500]

The Russian ‘false flag’ effort is in full swing. Today Russian media reported that “separatist” forces in the east obtained a map showing Ukraine’s plans to invade Donbas (the Russian-controlled region of eastern Ukraine) and use chemical weapons there. And tonight Russian media is reporting an attack on a pipeline in Luhansk. These things aren’t true but Russia is pushing the pretext.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[samiam5211]

Meanwhile we’re showing Putin that we are more concerned about winning the next election than winning the next war.

 

[superchuck500]

The White House continues to message about it tonight. Things are nearing the tipping point.

 

[MT15]

I was referring to our own militarism and nation destabilization efforts. I haven't gotten a say in any of that either. Did you?

I find it at the very least beside the point to harp on our past errors, during Putin’s current aggressions. It tends to make it seem that you are excusing what Putin is doing right now, and I don’t think that’s your intent.

We cannot change the past, but I do think Biden is doing everything he can right now to try to prevent Putin from starting a hot war with Ukraine.

 

[MT15]

Meanwhile we’re showing Putin that we are more concerned about winning the next election than winning the next war.

It’s to the point where they are openly rooting for Putin to make Biden look bad. It’s absolutely disgusting on so many levels.

 

[superchuck500]

It’s to the point where they are openly rooting for Putin to make Biden look bad. It’s absolutely disgusting on so many levels.

The Senate resolution passed unanimously.

 

[superchuck500]

The irony of Putin’s handling of Ukraine is that it has driven Ukrainian to the West - encouraging the very future he claims he seeks to avoid. But he wants to control Ukraine so I don’t think he cares what Ukrainians think anyway. It’s a zero sum game for him, there can be no middle ground of a democratic Ukraine that chooses not pursue NATO membership. That’s not reliable enough.

 

[SamAndreas]

This article can be viewed two ways imo-

It could be seen as a positive - they are ceding this territory and understanding that once this ends they could be harshly dealt with.

Or this could be viewed as they are leaving before their home becomes a war zone.

Putin to oversee nuclear drills as Ukraine crisis mounts

Russia's President Vladimir Putin was set to oversee exercises by strategic nuclear missile forces as Western leaders gathered in Munich, fearful that he could order troops massed on Ukraine's border to invade at any time.

www.reuters.com

I go with the read upon it that Reuters placed in their blurb. That Russia might use it to justify an invasion.

I'm more worried now.

 

[MT15]

The Senate resolution passed unanimously.

And yet they go and make public statements like above. Which has the most impact? None of the Fox News crowd is paying any attention to the senate resolution.

I was thinking of the Fox News hosts as well. They have openly been team Putin in some cases.

 

[MT15]

Oh, and I open Twitter and see this:

 

[superchuck500]

Oh, and I open Twitter and see this:

Good lord.

The idea that Ukraine would wait until surrounded by half of the entire Russian military to launch attacks on the east is patently absurd. It’s Putin’s pretext and publicly supporting the idea is nothing other than carrying Putin’s water.

Congress? The Senate passed a unanimous resolution condemning the Russian action.