Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (4 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[superchuck500]

 

[MT15]

Assuming this is from the Russian-backed rebel forces? And is in direct violation of the cease-fire?

 

[superchuck500]

 

[zztop]

Anyone remember this happening? Seems almost like an identical playbook that Putin is using - as an excuse to cross the border and invade

Russo-Georgian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[superchuck500]

 

[efil4]

Macron brokered talks between Biden and Putin set for Wednesday...so long as Russia doesn't move on Ukraine.

Not sure if Putin looking to buy couple more days and use the buildup to leverage the talks to attempt to get what he wants.

Can't really figure out the long game here.

 

[zztop]

Russia claims it killed 5 Ukrainian troops crossing border as U.S. warns of "false flags"

Ukraine has vehemently denied all allegations that it is attacking Russia.

www.axios.com

Russian state media claimed the Ukrainians that were killed had been on a "sabotage" mission, and also reported that Ukrainian shells had destroyed a border post on Russian soil.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba denied both allegations and called on Russia to "stop your fake-producing factory now."

The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine tweeted: "Russia’s execution of transparent, hackneyed plots to justify an invasion would be laughable if they weren’t so destructive and dangerous."

 

[superchuck500]

Okay this is the next domino - Russia will now invade these regions claiming it is defensive. It is exactly what Hitler did in Czechoslovakia.

 

[brandon]

Is Russia about to invade Ukraine?​

​

Yes.

 

[brandon]

Putin speaking live now.

 

[superchuck500]

Putin speaking live now.

Such a charade. He just expects the world to ignore that he spent the last two months positioning half of his military on the Ukrainian border and that this is all because Ukrainians are harming pro-Russian civilians in those regions. It’s utter nonsense. Plus the Russian-backed forces only control a fraction of those areas, Putin is going to take all of it.

 

[brandon]

I think a lot is getting lost in this English translation. It’s hard to understand what sort of point Putin is trying to make.

 

[superchuck500]

I think a lot is getting lost in this English translation. It’s hard to understand what sort of point Putin is trying to make.

Probably similar to this:

 

[brandon]

Probably similar to this:

It seems like he’s trying to blame Lenin for giving away Ukraine. I think.

 

[efil4]

Welp here we go.
He recognizes Dpr and Lpr...then just issued Russian military to enter these regions as "peacekeeping" missions.

 

[MT15]

Every news organization that calls them “peacekeepers” should be ashamed. It’s naked aggression, Reuters, I’m looking at you.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[zztop]

^ yeah, very similar to the situation in Georgia.
Also I saw mention of sanctions.. anyone think sanctions actually accomplishes anything?