Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[H B Lowrey]

Speculation, haste, and confusion surrounding a final push to war are nothing new. The 24 hour news cycle didn't invent them.

Edward L Bernays' work did.

 

[superchuck500]

Early sign of possible de-escalation.

 

[samiam5211]

Reading that Ukraine's government is being targeted by a DDos attack.

Putin is probably going to inflict as much pain as he can get away with on the way out, or he will make it look like the DDOS attack is coming from the US and say it is a CIA false flag to justify punishing Russia.

 

[superchuck500]

Reading that Ukraine's government is being targeted by a DDos attack.

Putin is probably going to inflict as much pain as he can get away with on the way out, or he will make it look like the DDOS attack is coming from the US and say it is a CIA false flag to justify punishing Russia.

Ukraine has been reporting cyber attacks for days now - part of the Russian playbook.

 

[H B Lowrey]

Ukraine has been reporting cyber attacks for days now - part of the Russian playbook.

And ours as well.

 

[superchuck500]

US was disputing reports of Russian pullback yesterday - now SECDEF says they’re moving closer.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[MT15]

Nichols’ take:

Russia Answers NATO

Indications and warnings.

newsletters.theatlantic.com

“Of course, this demand is impossible and Putin knows it.

So why make it? Because none of this is about NATO. It is, as my Atlanticcolleague Anne Applebaum and the former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul keep pointing out, about a democracy of 40 million Slavs on Russia’s border. This is intolerable to Putin and he will stomp out this small flame of freedom, however weak and inconstant it might be, even at the cost of war.

If we buy into the narrative about NATO, Putin will win a tremendous political victory without firing a shot. War between Russia and Ukraine might yet be averted, but these are not terms the West can take seriously.”

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Nichols’ take:

Russia Answers NATO

Indications and warnings.

newsletters.theatlantic.com

“Of course, this demand is impossible and Putin knows it.

So why make it? Because none of this is about NATO. It is, as my Atlanticcolleague Anne Applebaum and the former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul keep pointing out, about a democracy of 40 million Slavs on Russia’s border. This is intolerable to Putin and he will stomp out this small flame of freedom, however weak and inconstant it might be, even at the cost of war.

If we buy into the narrative about NATO, Putin will win a tremendous political victory without firing a shot. War between Russia and Ukraine might yet be averted, but these are not terms the West can take seriously.”

Putin didn't like the way the cold war ended. He wants some of the USSR back under his control.

 

[B4YOU]

Russia has added 7k more troops over the last 48hrs. Troop totals are now in the 150k range.

The Olympics end on Sunday. Monday is a US federal holiday. I doubted Putin would invade during the Olympics and give the world a stage to boo Russians. Let’s see what happens next week, but Putin has shown he will take small victories and play the long game.

Russia has issued 720,000 fast-track passports in eastern Ukraine

Officials say the number of people applying for Russian passports has increased in recent weeks as tensions around Ukraine soared.

www.euronews.com

 

[superchuck500]

This is looking worse by the day.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[H B Lowrey]

Putin didn't like the way the cold war ended. He wants some of the USSR back under his control.

I don't see how that differs from how the US behaves.

 

[MT15]

I don't see how that differs from how the US behaves.

So, you don’t see the difference between these two positions:

A. Ukraine should be prohibited from joining NATO. Moreover, several other sovereign nations who have joined NATO should be expelled agains their wishes.

B. Ukraine should make their own decision about joining NATO. If they can meet the requirements then it should be their decision whether to apply. Sovereign nations should make their own decisions about joining alliances or not.

 

[CoolBrees]

This article can be viewed two ways imo-

It could be seen as a positive - they are ceding this territory and understanding that once this ends they could be harshly dealt with.

Or this could be viewed as they are leaving before their home becomes a war zone.

Putin to oversee nuclear drills as Ukraine crisis mounts

Russia's President Vladimir Putin was set to oversee exercises by strategic nuclear missile forces as Western leaders gathered in Munich, fearful that he could order troops massed on Ukraine's border to invade at any time.

www.reuters.com

 

[efil4]

This article can be viewed two ways imo-

It could be seen as a positive - they are ceding this territory and understanding that once this ends they could be harshly dealt with.

Or this could be viewed as they are leaving before their home becomes a war zone.

Putin to oversee nuclear drills as Ukraine crisis mounts

Russia's President Vladimir Putin was set to oversee exercises by strategic nuclear missile forces as Western leaders gathered in Munich, fearful that he could order troops massed on Ukraine's border to invade at any time.

www.reuters.com

Yeah with all the posturing going on, im going with the latter. Makes sense from Rebels perspective- move em out to give appearances invasion imminent and if it doesnt happen, you still gave the threat. If it does, the citizens are out of harms way.

There is a high stakes game of chicken happening.

I still dont think Putin is silly enough to risk his position for this invasion.

 

[superchuck500]

Yeah with all the posturing going on, im going with the latter. Makes sense from Rebels perspective- move em out to give appearances invasion imminent and if it doesnt happen, you still gave the threat. If it does, the citizens are out of harms way.

There is a high stakes game of chicken happening.

I still dont think Putin is silly enough to risk his position for this invasion.

I think this is also part of the Russian narrative that Ukraine is committing genocide against Russians in the eastern regions. I don't think there's any real evidence of this but its part of the pretexual presentation. It's possible that Moscow is eying some kind of annexation of those lands that are sort of de facto Russian now anyway at least in Putin's view - which may allow him to calculate that the West's response wouldn't be unbearable. If he got away with that, he could claim to have achieved something. I'm not saying I think that's what's going to happen, just that there's some sense to that kind of thing being in the Russian plan.

 

[efil4]

I think this is also part of the Russian narrative that Ukraine is committing genocide against Russians in the eastern regions. I don't think there's any real evidence of this but its part of the pretexual presentation. It's possible that Moscow is eying some kind of annexation of those lands that are sort of de facto Russian now anyway at least in Putin's view - which may allow him to calculate that the West's response wouldn't be unbearable. If he got away with that, he could claim to have achieved something. I'm not saying I think that's what's going to happen, just that there's some sense to that kind of thing being in the Russian plan.

agree. Hard to say what he is thinking at this point.

but what i do like- is how the West has been completely transparent with its intelligence and summaries up to this point. It allowed the West to get out in FRONT of Putin. Now he has a decision to make- and its possible what you posited above, allows him to "save face" in mother Russia.
They actually called his bluff by telling everyone what the "bluff" was.