Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SystemShock]

Radicalization takes over societies when good men stop standing up to radicals , much like in the GOP, Where there are about 15 to 20 percent radical and the rest say nothing to little out of fear.
Much like how the Nazis came to power and commies .

FIFY

 

[CoolBrees]

And now Biden is sending more troops. I believe this is to further the message that we are calling his miserably thought out bluff

Biden orders forces to Europe amid stalled Ukraine talks

President Joe Biden is ordering 2,000 U.S. troops to Poland and Germany amid the stalled talks with Russia over the Kremlin's military buildup on Ukraine's borders.

apnews.com

 

[superchuck500]

And now Biden is sending more troops. I believe this is to further the message that we are calling his miserably thought out bluff

Biden orders forces to Europe amid stalled Ukraine talks

President Joe Biden is ordering 2,000 U.S. troops to Poland and Germany amid the stalled talks with Russia over the Kremlin's military buildup on Ukraine's borders.

apnews.com

Note that these troops are deployed to allies in the region whom I believe have stated their intention to send troops of their own into Ukraine to fight an invasion. The US troops effectively reinforce their own security at home and free them to support Ukraine.

Another development today is that satellite photos of Russian forces show that troops are now encamped along with other materiel that has been in place for longer:

New satellite images show buildup of Russian military around Ukraine | CNN

More evidence has emerged of a steady build-up of Russian military equipment and deployments around Ukraine, with new satellite images revealing a further expansion of the military presence at multiple locations in Belarus, Crimea and western Russia.

www.cnn.com

 

[superchuck500]

Politico piece on how GOP leadership in Washington doesn't share the populist/trumpist/Carlson view. And then meanwhile, Gen. Flynn shares his admiration for Putin:

GOP to Tucker Carlson: We’re the decision-makers on Ukraine, not you

“He’s obviously not in a position of being responsible for those decisions. And we are,” said Sen. John Cornyn.

www.politico.com

 

[insidejob]

Is that really on the My Pillow Channel? Lindell TV? What the hell is that?

 

[MT15]

It is only on-line as far as I know.

 

[MT15]

Politico piece on how GOP leadership in Washington doesn't share the populist/trumpist/Carlson view. And then meanwhile, Gen. Flynn shares his admiration for Putin:

GOP to Tucker Carlson: We’re the decision-makers on Ukraine, not you

“He’s obviously not in a position of being responsible for those decisions. And we are,” said Sen. John Cornyn.

www.politico.com

What can the US military do about a former officer who sides with an antagonist country against the US? Can they pull his pension?

 

[superchuck500]

What can the US military do about a former officer who sides with an antagonist country against the US? Can they pull his pension?

I think theoretically they could but doing so for what is basically public speaking that is arguably simply being critical of U.S. policy is First Amendment activity and punishing him for it is both legally suspect and bad judgment, IMO. He's done far worse than this.

But these right-wingers talking about what a great guy Putin is, Anne Applebaum is an expert on authoritarianism at the Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins and she knows Putin very well. Here's what she has to say about it:

The Reason Putin Would Risk War

He is threatening to invade Ukraine because he wants democracy to fail—and not just in that country.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[superchuck500]

You know @MT15 , you raise what is sort of the fundamental irony about someone like General Flynn. He claims to believe in American freedom but he is actually an authoritarian by any meaningful standard. He lavishes praise on Putin and Erdogan. He endorses a singular national religion (his of course) for the United States. He advocated for a coup when Trump lost.

But much of his public speaking and activities - in which he calls himself General and freely accepts the lofty position that military leaders have by default in the populist American right - run contrary to official DOD policy. In an authoritarian state, he would be muzzled and controlled, and if he didn't tow the line, he would be dealt with.

These American authoritarians always presume they would be totally free to function as they do in this alternative American authoritarian regime - that their views are the "correct" ones and that means that their views would simply become the official party line. The reality is far messier than that, and often the authority's inner-circle are more at-risk than the general public.

 

[MT15]

I don’t want him silenced, but I do resent spending tax dollars to support his treacherous activities. Especially since his pension is probably substantial.

I just wish there were some sort of caveat on a military pension that would revoke it if the retiree starts working to overthrow the US government and trash the Constitution. Seems reasonable to me.

 

[zztop]

Is that really on the My Pillow Channel? Lindell TV? What the hell is that?

looks like it has been on for a year or so

Texas AG went on Mike Lindell's TV network urging people to pressure state judges after they stopped him from prosecuting supposed voter fraud | Business Insider India

"You can look them up," Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said during an interview on MyPillow CEO and conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell's platform.

www.businessinsider.in

seems to be part of frank speech

Mike Lindell's latest hire for his Frank Speech broadcast channel is a former Newsmax host who once claimed vaccines contain satanic trackers

Emerald Robinson was taken off the air by Newsmax in November after she tweeted a post with a false claim about COVID-19 jabs.

www.businessinsider.com

"She is producing her own show for Lindell TV at Frank Speech," Lindell told Insider. "I am very excited to have her coming to Frank Speech!"

 

[MT15]

Tom Nichols’ take on Flynn:

 

[superchuck500]

Well this is something

 

[CoolBrees]

We are about to hear of that guy coming down with a deadly case of Fallingoutofawindowitis or Poisonedwithnervetoxinatosis

 

[Otis Mayfield]

Putin thought Joe would blink and agree to everything Putin wanted.

Looks like that's not going to happen.

My guess is Putin will fold, and the Russian army will leave the border.

 

[H B Lowrey]

Politico piece on how GOP leadership in Washington doesn't share the populist/trumpist/Carlson view. And then meanwhile, Gen. Flynn shares his admiration for Putin:

GOP to Tucker Carlson: We’re the decision-makers on Ukraine, not you

“He’s obviously not in a position of being responsible for those decisions. And we are,” said Sen. John Cornyn.

www.politico.com

Tucker's a white pride world wide kinda guy.

 

[CoolBrees]

My only fear is that Putin may invade simply because he doesn’t want to cave, appear warm, and now has no other alternative. Especially since his false flag operation was exposed.

I don’t doubt he was bluffing at first but now he he may be a cornered animal and they are the most dangerous kind

 

[Otis Mayfield]

I wonder if they'll be mass rapes like when the Soviets invaded Germany.