Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[the annoying thing]

I’m sure some of them would.

Now, can you acknowledge that some on the right would welcome Putin’s help, and anyone who praises Putin is a problem?

Accepting help and political redrick and arse kissing are different things

 

[B4YOU]

Prior to the interruption Chuck posted this article. I bring it back up because this is exactly my thoughts as well. If Putin really invades, he is forgetting he doesn’t command a large army without massive reserve’s calls up. 100,000 troops at the border isn’t doing shirt. You need like 5-7 times that to take and hold a country (of 40 million people no less) minimum.

Disagree based my assumptions of Putin’s goals. I think there are only two viable options Putin is considering.

1. Threaten the existing government to the point they step down. Instill a friendly government that won’t join NATO. Have NATO agree to a DMZ of nations that will never join.
2. Invade the 1/3 of Ukraine that is Russian speaking and maybe take Kiev. Return Kiev to Ukraine and keep coastal areas and bordering oblasts. Set up a new puppet nation/govt.

Plan 1 just needs sufficient threat. Plan 2 probably needs the 130k troops which are already there.

Iraq and Ukraine have the same population of about 40M. US peak troop numbers were 170k. Russia doesn’t have the same technology, but they only need to take 1/3 of a country. Plus, they have primed the split by encouraging a civil war and there is a language split.

Seizing Kiev may not be necessary nor good public relations. Even Americans know Kiev and invading ethnic Ukrainians begs an insurgency. Just taking 6-8 coastal and bordering oblasts that speak Russian and calling yourself a liberator may work. Russia might not be subduing a local population in those areas as much as fighting Ukrainian regular troops while Russian-speaking people wait to see who wins.

 

[samiam5211]

Accepting help and political redrick and arse kissing are different things

So no, you won’t acknowledge it.

This is how radicalization takes over societies.

 

[the annoying thing]

So no, you won’t acknowledge it.

This is how radicalization takes over societies.

This is how radicalization takes over societies ? no thats being honest how I fee, You see world leader kiss each others arses all the time and praise each other especially in private. They rarely mean what they say and just smile for the cameras and those who are stupid enough to think they can do no wrong.Most are lying a lot.

Radicalization takes over societies when good men stop standing up to radicals , much like in the Muslim community. Where there are about 15 to 20 percent radical and the rest say nothing to little out of fear.
Much like how the Nazis came to power and commies .

 

[MT15]

Really you think that lol. I assume you have some evidence of that right ? My self I think the proud boys or any white supremacist group the black panthers or blm or antifa type groups are scum .
Now Biden has already removed sanctions on Russia that Trump put in place to delay and make it harder for the pipe line to euro nations that will make them even more dependent on on them for fuel basically placing a ring in Europe's nose like a cow so Putin can influence them and threaten them , it will take awhile but Putin wants them dependent on his fuels . Also Biden has made it plain he wont help the Ukraine and will not allow American troops to help Nato. Plus we have hunter who was found to be with a Russian hooker and Russian drug dealers who he claims stole his other lap top and hunter taking money from a Russian woman with mafia ties. Biden might as well be on Putins pay roll. And whats the proud boys got to do with Russia invading the Ukraine O you say nothing .

So there are some real whoppers in here. Like some serious misinformation. Lol.

 

[MT15]

This is how radicalization takes over societies ? no thats being honest how I fee, You see world leader kiss each others arses all the time and praise each other especially in private. They rarely mean what they say and just smile for the cameras and those who are stupid enough to think they can do no wrong.Most are lying a lot.

Radicalization takes over societies when good men stop standing up to radicals , much like in the Muslim community. Where there are about 15 to 20 percent radical and the rest say nothing to little out of fear.
Much like how the Nazis came to power and commies .

Another whopper. Geez.

 

[samiam5211]

This is how radicalization takes over societies ? no thats being honest how I fee, You see world leader kiss each others arses all the time and praise each other especially in private. They rarely mean what they say and just smile for the cameras and those who are stupid enough to think they can do no wrong.Most are lying a lot.

Radicalization takes over societies when good men stop standing up to radicals , much like in the Muslim community. Where there are about 15 to 20 percent radical and the rest say nothing to little out of fear.
Much like how the Nazis came to power and commies .

You can’t acknowledge that the extremists on your side are just as bad as the extremists on the other side.

That’s how extremism wins.

Be the moderate Muslim you wish for.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Radicalization takes over societies when good men stop standing up to radicals , much like in the Muslim community.

Much like the right not standing up to Trump's Big Lie.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/07/republicans-big-lie-trump/

All credible evidence tells us that the 2020 election was very secure. Experts on both sides of the political aisle, and even President Donald Trump’s own Justice Department, have confirmed that 2020 was a free and fair election. Even a Republican-sponsored audit of Arizona’s results found no evidence of fraud or malfeasance.

Nevertheless, the vast majority of Republican voters say they agree with Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that the election was stolen.

 

[the annoying thing]

You can’t acknowledge that the extremists on your side are just as bad as the extremists on the other side.

That’s how extremism wins.

Be the moderate Muslim you wish for.

There are no extremist on MY SIDE , THERE ARE EXTREMIST THAT IDENTIFY WITH THE CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENTS and like most conservatives we disavow them as the lunatics they are . I have said her I have no use for the proud boys or my arch enemies the national alliance or militias or the kkk or the black panthers or the democrat communist party movement or blm or any such group they are all scum. But antifa and blm consist of millions of people .

 

[samiam5211]

There are no extremist on MY SIDE , THERE ARE EXTREMIST THAT IDENTIFY WITH THE CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENTS and like most conservatives we disavow them as the lunatics they are . I have said her I have no use for the proud boys or my arch enemies the national alliance or militias or the kkk or the black panthers or the democrat communist party movement or blm or any such group they are all scum. But antifa and blm consist of millions of people .

Do you believe that any of the people in jail for what they did in Jan 6 deserve to be there?

 

[the annoying thing]

Do you believe that any of the people in jail for what they did in Jan 6 deserve to be there?

Yrea indeed I do, any of the protesters that took a active part in the riot should be jailed juast as those that took part in blm and antifa riots should be no difference to me what so ever except the blm riots were nation wide and involved far more people and many liberal leaders were in favor of the rioters at least at first.

 

[samiam5211]

Yrea indeed I do, any of the protesters that took a active part in the riot should be jailed juast as those that took part in blm and antifa riots should be no difference to me what so ever except the blm riots were nation wide and involved far more people and many liberal leaders were in favor of the rioters at least at first.

Rioters should be arrested.

Not sure what you are referring to as the BLM riots though.

 

[the annoying thing]

Rioters should be arrested.

Not sure what you are referring to as the BLM riots though.

You dont know what blm riots were ? they occurred in hundreds of city s And dozens died 2 billion plus in damages looting arson thousands of assaults and you dont know what Im talking about ? Seriously it was on the news for about 2 years .

 

[samiam5211]

You dont know what blm riots were ? they occurred in hundreds of city s And dozens died 2 billion plus in damages looting arson thousands of assaults and you dont know what Im talking about ? Seriously it was on the news for about 2 years .

You think BLM supported riots?

 

[Saintman2884]

For what it's worth, I couldn't agree more with this:

Putin’s No Chess Master

Some believe Putin has not only Ukraine, but the whole West, exactly where he wants it. A more balanced consideration is in order.

www.theatlantic.com

I don't know if Russian economy is in the same situation or could be put in a similar predicament like Eisenhower threatened to do to the British and French economies by withholding bonds. It doesn't work quite that easily (or that swiftly) with Russia's economy. Their economy would be damaged, sure? But put past this point of breaking point where a still WWII-ravaged British economy, which was still adopting some wartime rationing due to shortages up until 1954 and French, still fighting a protractive, ever-increasing intense colonial war against the FLN seperatist groups(a war they'd lose, BTW, and one in which came very close to seeing De Gaulle removed from power and assassinated driving in his car while on the war to a local airport, France in 1961 sort of had their own Jan. 6 moment where a right-wing military coup nearly succeeded in ending democracy, and also ended the French Fourth Republic). Sanctions will hurt Russia and Putin, but I don't believe in the long-run, if Putin was determined to invade and annex Ukraine or significant parts of it, it doesn't matter necessarily how strong we are or are influence. Remember how some people thought Putin made Obama look weak and vacillitating in 2014 over his annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, using Russian supposed cooperation the ongoing, bloody Syrian Civil War as a pretext for sort of quid pro quo. Obama didnt exactly look all firm and nasty and determined when confronted with Putin's possible aggression, then either.

Then again, some people have argued Obama got a bit soft during his second term, negotiating foreign treaties that had some intrinsic value, but we had to concede a lot more arguably that what was given to us, especially the Iranian nuclear freeze deal. That freeze didnt "stop" Iran's nuclear program, nor dismantle it, it was a 10-year wait-and-see how it goes deal that if Iran didn't like it in 10 years, they could forking walk away from it, with no penalties. Obama could've gotten a better deal, IMHO, if he had pushed and played the game a little harder, but he was running out of time, and he wanted to establish a "legacy" so he caved and signed a heavily-flawed deal then one he couldve gotten if he'd negotiated a more firmer line. I think most Republicans disowned that deal, internally, from the second it was signed and I could certainly see far-less radical Republicans like Romney eventually disowning it, saying Obama gave away too much in 2015 and we were forced to swallow it. I think Pres. Obama knew that any subsequent GOP administration, much less Trump's, wouldve dumped and sworn to get a better one, if they were elected in 2016.

Putin is a bully, but he's a smart, instinctive one and he's a little like late Kim-Jong IL of North Korea but cleverer in using nuclear brinkmanship, just less overt and bombastic with fiery words, and pronouns. I don't think even if Trump doesn't get elected and doesn't plan a weak, spineless foreign policy, I don't see any Democratic administration, Hillary included, using threats to make him back down, effectively. Because he knows they won't likely risk a full-out war in Europe over Ukraine and severe sanctions take a long time to really have their desired affect on making nations change controversial domestic or foreign policy decisions like apartheid in South Africa, which took decades and in some respects, we should be thankful there wasnt more widespread violence in its immediate dismantling and subsequent aftermath.

 

[Saintman2884]

Disagree based my assumptions of Putin’s goals. I think there are only two viable options Putin is considering.

1. Threaten the existing government to the point they step down. Instill a friendly government that won’t join NATO. Have NATO agree to a DMZ of nations that will never join.
2. Invade the 1/3 of Ukraine that is Russian speaking and maybe take Kiev. Return Kiev to Ukraine and keep coastal areas and bordering oblasts. Set up a new puppet nation/govt.

Plan 1 just needs sufficient threat. Plan 2 probably needs the 130k troops which are already there.

Iraq and Ukraine have the same population of about 40M. US peak troop numbers were 170k. Russia doesn’t have the same technology, but they only need to take 1/3 of a country. Plus, they have primed the split by encouraging a civil war and there is a language split.

Seizing Kiev may not be necessary nor good public relations. Even Americans know Kiev and invading ethnic Ukrainians begs an insurgency. Just taking 6-8 coastal and bordering oblasts that speak Russian and calling yourself a liberator may work. Russia might not be subduing a local population in those areas as much as fighting Ukrainian regular troops while Russian-speaking people wait to see who wins.

That still leaves the West, and Biden, of appearing weak, vacillitating, unsupportive of a democratic Ukrainian government in the face of a possible blustering, threatening Russian military action whenever Putin decides its time to cause friction and division and threaten to use overt military action or mass 130,000-250,000 forking troops on some Eastern European country's borders and claim he's defending _________ ethnic Russian communities in Finland, Poland, Bulgaria, or Romania or even the Balkans.

You see the language and rhetoric might alter from country to country and from a different crisis to next evolving one, but its same similar tone Russia has used since the Crimean War to try and get what it wants, even if those supposed "fellow-Slavic brother nations" don't or didnt want their protection or patronage or in the 20th century, THEIR FORM OF COMMUNISM.

It happened during the Crimean War, it happened again during the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-78 which led to the Congress of Berlin and the beginning of Europe being placed into seperate, intransigent power-alliances, where separate powerful countries vowed to come to the other's aid in case of attack or invasion: The Triple Alliance of Austria-Hungary, Germany and Italy, and later on, France, Russia and United Kingdom in the Triple Entente.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[superchuck500]

Current state of play as summarized by Slate:

But it didn’t turn out that way. Putin’s moves were too blunt, and his denials of any unusual activity were too blatant. Then came another surprising twist: Biden and his diplomats, who had made missteps in other realms, suddenly turned super-competent. Biden was comfortable with trans-Atlantic matters; NATO had been the centerpiece of U.S. foreign policy during his decades on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as vice president. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had been at his side, as top staffer, for many of those years. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman had eked results at the toughest negotiating tables. Their efforts held together the 30-state NATO alliance in opposing Moscow’s moves and threatening firm action in response to any further invasion of Ukraine’s territory.

Whatever Putin winds up doing, his plan of driving the NATO allies apart and reducing the U.S. presence near Russia’s borders failed. In fact, Washington has put 8,500 more troops on high alert for deployment to Poland and Estonia, to shore up the eastern flanks of NATO. Poland and Britain have announced a “trilateral security pact” with Ukraine, and, though no one knows quite what it means, the two countries are in the meantime redoubling their recent arms shipments to Kyiv. Sweden and Finland, Russia’s thoroughly western neighbors, which have stayed militarily neutral for all these decades, are now mulling the prospect of joining NATO.

The Ukraine Crisis Is Not Going Well for Putin

The Russian president wanted to drive a wedge between NATO’s allies. His plan is backfiring spectacularly.

slate.com