Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[samiam5211]

If we accept a Russian invasion in Ukraine, how quickly does China roll into Taiwan?

Probably not long.

At least China actually has a basis to claim they own Taiwan.

 

[superchuck500]

If we accept a Russian invasion on Ukraine, how quickly does China roll into Taiwan?

I don't think there's any real linkage there - but the West wouldn't accept a Russian invasion of Ukraine. What "won't accept" looks like remains to be seen.

This is some interesting stuff here going on with people who are paying attention to these things. Apparently two Russian amphibious assault units are transferring from the Baltic Sea, where they were spotted by a French patrol in the North Sea and believed to be moving through the English Channel. The belief is that they are shifting to the Black Sea to join Russian forces there that already include amphibious assault assets.

Unclear whether this portends an actual invasion, or is routine fleet management, or is part of Moscow's effort to appear poised to invade in order to increase pressure on the West for talks (and presumably commitments).

 

[superchuck500]

More seeding of the ostensible battlefield:

 

[J-DONK]

Cool map with updates on what is going on:

Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...

liveuamap.com

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Well...

 

[samiam5211]

I read something about Turkey brokering some type of peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

That may have been Putin's plan all along. Turkey being the peacemaker would cause another fissure in NATO.

 

[SamAndreas]

Well...

Hollywood!

That depiction of the NORAD control room isn't even remotely like the inside of the Cheyenne Mountain Complex. The tunnels are about 40 to 45 feet wide and the buildings inside of the tunnels are 30 to perhaps 35 feet wide. Long narrow rooms are all there are. There's no place in there even close to the large wide open size of that sound stage they used to film that movie.

Moving around in there is more like moving through a host of double wide trailer houses hooked together end to end, and stacked three high. Part of every place in there is like a hallway going to somewhere else.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Weird Coincidence???

During a cabinet meeting, Mr Trump said: "So we're protecting Germany and they're delinquent. That doesn't make sense. So I said, we're going to bring down the count to 25,000 soldiers."
He has said that Nato members should no longer be relying so heavily on the US to shoulder the costs of maintaining the alliance.
The argument between the allies focuses around the target agreed by all alliance members that defence spending should reach 2% of GDP (gross domestic product, the total value of goods produced and services provided) by 2024. Germany, along with many other countries, has yet to meet this target.

Trump confirms plan to cut troops in Germany

The US president confirmed US plans on Monday to withdraw 9,500 troops from Germany.

www.bbc.com

U.S. to withdraw almost 12,000 troops from Germany in sweeping reorganization

President Donald Trump has long singled out Germany, a historically close U.S. ally, for not spending enough on defense and running a trade surplus.

www.nbcnews.com

US formally withdraws from Open Skies Treaty that bolstered European security | CNN Politics

The US on Sunday formally exited the decades-old Open Skies Treaty, some six months after President Donald Trump first announced the decision, according to the State Department.

www.cnn.com

Trump's Problem With NATO Is About Much More Than Money

The president’s emphasis on spending obscures a much deeper skepticism of alliances.

www.theatlantic.com

The US on Sunday formally exited the decades-old Open Skies Treaty, some six months after President Donald Trump first announced the decision, according to the State Department.
The 1992 treaty allows the 34 member countries to conduct short notice, unarmed, reconnaissance flights over the other countries to collect data on their military forces and activities.
The Trump administration has cited Russian restrictions on Open Skies flights as the reason why it sought to exit the treaty, accusing Moscow of imposing limits on flights near its exclave of Kaliningrad, an area between Poland and Lithuania where the Russian military maintains a robust presence.

US formally withdraws from Open Skies Treaty that bolstered European security | CNN Politics

The US on Sunday formally exited the decades-old Open Skies Treaty, some six months after President Donald Trump first announced the decision, according to the State Department.

www.cnn.com

Maybe not so weird after all.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Hollywood!

That depiction of the NORAD control room isn't even remotely like the inside of the Cheyenne Mountain Complex. The tunnels are about 40 to 45 feet wide and the buildings inside of the tunnels are 30 to perhaps 35 feet wide. Long narrow rooms are all there are. There's no place in there even close to the large wide open size of that sound stage they used to film that movie.

Moving around in there is more like moving through a host of double wide trailer houses hooked together end to end, and stacked three high. Part of every place in there is like a hallway going to somewhere else.

We all know it is where they keep the Stargate.

 

[SamAndreas]

Weird Coincidence???

Trump confirms plan to cut troops in Germany

The US president confirmed US plans on Monday to withdraw 9,500 troops from Germany.

www.bbc.com

U.S. to withdraw almost 12,000 troops from Germany in sweeping reorganization

President Donald Trump has long singled out Germany, a historically close U.S. ally, for not spending enough on defense and running a trade surplus.

www.nbcnews.com

US formally withdraws from Open Skies Treaty that bolstered European security | CNN Politics

The US on Sunday formally exited the decades-old Open Skies Treaty, some six months after President Donald Trump first announced the decision, according to the State Department.

www.cnn.com

Trump's Problem With NATO Is About Much More Than Money

The president’s emphasis on spending obscures a much deeper skepticism of alliances.

www.theatlantic.com

US formally withdraws from Open Skies Treaty that bolstered European security | CNN Politics

The US on Sunday formally exited the decades-old Open Skies Treaty, some six months after President Donald Trump first announced the decision, according to the State Department.

www.cnn.com

Maybe not so weird after all.

Trump did try to gut NATO. That was very suspicious. So the first half of your post might mean something in relation to the current events.

However that Open Sky's treaty became obsolete. I doubt that the US wants it back. The US doesn't have spy aircraft anymore to utilize the overflight terms of that treaty, not since our spy satellite optics became good enough to count grains of sand on a beach.

The last thing I heard about that treaty was several years ago that Russia was using it to harass us. They were flying some of their old strategic prop "Bear" aircraft over us saying they were reconnaissance aircraft, but they looked like very slow big old long range nuclear bombers to us.

 

[SamAndreas]

We all know it is where they keep the Stargate.

I've heard they put a sign on the door to a janitors closet in Cheyenne Mountain that reads, "Star Gate Command."

 

[superchuck500]

The UK has airlifted various weaponry (including anti-tank batteries) and a small unit of commandos to assist in their operation.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[Maxp]

Is this nothing more than Putin trying to score a domestic win? I don't buy the feeling threatened by NATO expansion act.

 

[SamAndreas]

The UK has airlifted various weaponry (including anti-tank batteries) and a small unit of commandos to assist in their operation.

That would be a classic "me too" maneuver for which the British are famed. It's useful as a warning to an aggressor, however as a strategic maneuver it had no effect whatsoever on Adolf Hitler. He just rolled over it, didn't care.

Insofar as personal and stuff I think I counted 7 flights, and the video said they were C-17s. That would amount to about a million pounds of people and freight. That's about the capacity of what is called a "work boat" in the offshore oil business. No one would call a boat that small a ship. Militarily it amounts to next to nothing.

The British are always with us wherever we go, and us with them. I would think we have, or soon will have, a "me too" contingent on the ground there as well.

 

[superchuck500]

Is this nothing more than Putin trying to score a domestic win? I don't buy the feeling threatened by NATO expansion act.

I think he's beyond needing domestic wins at this point but I do think that for Putin, they are one and the same when it comes to Ukraine and NATO. Part of his domestic appeal with the more traditional elements of Russian demographics has been to restore the greatness that the dismantling of the Soviet Union brought. I think that Ukraine has long been viewed by Moscow as within its sphere that Ukraine in NATO would indeed be worrisome. Historically Soviet/Russian foreign policy is driven by insecurity (some of it fair some of it not) so I think it's a legit interest for Moscow and I think it's popular for many domestically to be taking a strong position on it. Though I don't think casualties in an invasion would be popular at all (the casualties in the Crimean invasion weren't either though many refuse to talk about it and reporting on it has been clandestine) - at least according to the Snyder piece in the OP.

 

[Maxp]

NATO has not invaded any Russian territory and I can't think of a reason it ever would. Russia invaded Georgia, then the Crimea and has fostered a continuous low level warm war in Ukraine. Russia is overplaying their hand here. They have their warm water port. There is no "Russian" economic or political system to export to its former territories. Putin is a dictator, no one wants to be under his thumb. I'm not a hawk, but I believe Biden should meet the Russian build up with on of our own.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

...However that Open Sky's treaty became obsolete. I doubt that the US wants it back. The US doesn't have spy aircraft anymore to utilize the overflight terms of that treaty, not since our spy satellite optics became good enough to count grains of sand on a beach.

The last thing I heard about that treaty was several years ago that Russia was using it to harass us. They were flying some of their old strategic prop "Bear" aircraft over us saying they were reconnaissance aircraft, but they looked like very slow big old long range nuclear bombers to us.

Two things, the US still employ spy planes one of them is still the U-2, but those assets aren't used to conduct Open Skies missions. Secondly, the Bear scenario you describe isn't how the Open Skies Treaty work. It was designed as a joint forces mission with Russian and US personnel, so any other airspace incursion by either side that was not pre-arranged is not protected by the treaty.