Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[H B Lowrey]

I wonder if they'll be mass rapes like when the Soviets invaded Germany.

Rape is definitely a tactic of war.

 

[superchuck500]

French officials said Vladimir Putin had moved towards de-escalating the Ukraine crsis by promising not to undertake any new “military initiatives” and agreeing to withdraw thousands of Russian troops from Belarus after the completion of planned exercises. If the agreement — brokered during talks with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Monday — is confirmed by Putin it could ease tensions in the region after Russia amassed more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the Financial Times that Putin and Macron were “prepared to continue dialogue” on the French proposals but that the discussions had yet to fully assuage Moscow’s concerns. “All these subjects require agreement from France’s EU and Nato allies, first and foremost the US,” Peskov said. “It’s too early to speak about anything else.”

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[H B Lowrey]

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2 steps forward, one step back. fork with the american psyche, which it far too easy.

 

[The moose]

2 steps forward, one step back. fork with the american psyche, which it far too easy.

Yeah but he risked potential earnings for his country and spent a ton on the mobilization to test NATO.

The natural gas is not gonna flow like it once did certainly. His little power play is just made Europe find a new dealer.

I guess he will have to sell more to China.

 

[bird]

Yeah but he risked potential earnings for his country and spent a ton on the mobilization to test NATO.

The natural gas is not gonna flow like it once did certainly. His little power play is just made Europe find a new dealer.

I guess he will have to sell more to China.

I am not so sure. I do agree that he is risking much but his internal agitprop is useful for the large tribe called patriotism. He has defined it internally and employed various methods to both distract and keep in line, relatively speaking, the populace. Add in that Russia has literally no history of democratic institutions and we see that his position is not too untenable. There are countries in Europe that basically do not care about Ukraine because they lack for an energy system to replace natural gas. Such systems are costly. Also finding reliable alternative sources of natural gas is costly and time consuming. That being said things will likely continue in a different manner. Internal division/dissension in Ukraine will be stepped up via agitprop. Small groups will be used to utilize social media and other methods to further destabilize the Ukrainian government. While Putin is not a long term thinker as regards the actual health and potential security of Russia he is a strategic thinker when it comes to his own needs/wants.

 

[CoolBrees]

When Germany agreed to cancel the pipeline if he invaded, any chance he would went out the window. That would cripple his nation.

Now we are going to see what type of spin he will try to put on tucking his tail and leaving. Tucker has got to be pissed that Biden just ate Putin’s lunch.

 

[bird]

Oil and Gas Pipelines

Map: Oil and gas pipelines from Russia to Europe.

www.nationalgeographic.org

Map of Russian oil and gas pipelines into Europe. Germany cancelling Nord Stream 2 (iirc, that is the new pipeline) will negatively impact others that need Russian gas and oil. This is not a zero-sum game but a game with winners and losers no longer defined by old political terminology. The same applies to the PRC.

 

[CoolBrees]

Oh it would hurt the EU terribly to pull out. That is why they don’t want to. But saying they will if he invades puts the onus on Putin and he is already capitulating. His gambit was he that the EUs need would outweigh their demands in regards to Ukraine. He was wrong.

 

[superchuck500]

When Germany agreed to cancel the pipeline if he invaded, any chance he would went out the window. That would cripple his nation.

Now we are going to see what type of spin he will try to put on tucking his tail and leaving. Tucker has got to be pissed that Biden just ate Putin’s lunch.

That whole thing was awkward - I don't think the Chancellor actually ever said Germany would cancel the pipeline, only that Germany would remain united with the US on response. Biden certainly said the US would cancel it but it's not exactly clear what he means.

 

[MT15]

The Chancellor took to Twitter after the meeting to clarify that there is no distance between the US and Germany on this topic. It may be politically unwise for him to say it outright, but Putin knows it’s true.

 

[SamAndreas]

That whole thing was awkward - I don't think the Chancellor actually ever said Germany would cancel the pipeline, only that Germany would remain united with the US on response. Biden certainly said the US would cancel it but it's not exactly clear what he means.

Russia has a major pipe manufacturing conglomerate. However they've bought existing pipe rolling mills overseas rather than building very many of their new rolling mills in Russia. Too much of their large diameter pipeline manufacturing capacity is located in the US and Canada. Too much of the corrosion resistance coating technology they need is also located here.

Basically the US if Canada goes along with the US can shut off such a major portion of the large diameter pipe and other products they need to build that large diameter pipeline that it would shut that project down for the foreseeable future.

So we could in essence cancel that project if those critical goods and services were to be embargoed.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

To answer the original question posed by the thread: yes.

 

[wardorican]

To answer the original question posed by the thread: yes.

 

[wardorican]

 

[MT15]

It was better when we didn’t have 24 hours a day to fill, leading to this sort of rampant speculation all the damn time.

 

[superchuck500]

It was better when we didn’t have 24 hours a day to fill, leading to this sort of rampant speculation all the damn time.

And people had more sense.

For Pete's sake.

 

[H B Lowrey]

It was better when we didn’t have 24 hours a day to fill, leading to this sort of rampant speculation all the damn time.

I need no constant feed by anxious, tweaked up, psychobabble cackled headed pundits regarding what "may" transpire. So, I don't have that shirt around me, in my face or my ears, for decades now. Just walk away.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Speculation, haste, and confusion surrounding a final push to war are nothing new. The 24 hour news cycle didn't invent them.