Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[RobF]

^ yeah, very similar to the situation in Georgia.
Also I saw mention of sanctions.. anyone think sanctions actually accomplishes anything?

I'd say it depends on the sanctions. They can in principle make things harder for the sanctioned, but that doesn't necessarily change much. I think it ultimately boils down to, who actually bears the brunt of the sanctions, do the leaders care, and if they don't can/will those suffering the impact of the sanctions do anything about it?

And the answer is usually, "Not the leaders, no, and not really."

E.g. the UK has just sanctioned five Russian banks and three 'high net-worth individuals', which means freezing their UK-held assets (that is, the known assets...) and banning the individuals from travel to the UK.

That might exert some political pressure if the individuals are influential and really wanted to travel to the UK, but it's hard to see it being significant.

Germany refusing to certify Nord Stream 2 might be more significant:

Germany freezes Nord Stream 2 gas project as Ukraine crisis deepens

Germany on Tuesday halted the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, designed to double the flow of Russian gas direct to Germany, after Russia formally recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

But even then I doubt it'll have much impact in terms of Russia's aggression towards Ukraine. My (not that well-informed) impression is that Russia's approach is to annex, hold, and ride out the consequences until the new situation becomes normalised, and repeat as desired.

And that'll continue unless the response is strong enough that it either deters further aggression - and I'm not sure what that response would be - or it destabilises Putin's regime.

 

[MT15]

I read an interesting tweet that said all the children of Russian oligarchs who attend fancy private schools in Britain and the US should be expelled immediately and their visas revoked. I don’t know how many there are, but that sounds reasonable. Why should our countries educate the children of those who are supporting what Putin is doing?

 

[insidejob]

I read an interesting tweet that said all the children of Russian oligarchs who attend fancy private schools in Britain and the US should be expelled immediately and their visas revoked. I don’t know how many there are, but that sounds reasonable. Why should our countries educate the children of those who are supporting what Putin is doing?

I'm down. I mean, it's not really anything these kids can control but let's not shirt ourselves and pretend like lots of these kids aren't going to go back home to take up the family business when they're done with school. Let's just give them an early exit and let them go learn in Russian schools.

 

[Port City JJ]

Would I be crazy to hypothesize that Putin urged Trump to drawdown the troops in Germany because he's been planning this for a while?

Trump's troop cut in Germany blindsided senior U.S. officials, sources say

President Donald Trump's decision to cut U.S. troop levels in Germany blindsided a number of senior national security officials, according to five sources familiar with the matter, and the Pentagon had yet to receive a formal order to carry it out, Reuters has learned.

www.reuters.com

 

[DaveXA]

Would I be crazy to hypothesize that Putin urged Trump to drawdown the troops in Germany because he's been planning this for a while?

Trump's troop cut in Germany blindsided senior U.S. officials, sources say

President Donald Trump's decision to cut U.S. troop levels in Germany blindsided a number of senior national security officials, according to five sources familiar with the matter, and the Pentagon had yet to receive a formal order to carry it out, Reuters has learned.

www.reuters.com

Not crazy at all. It makes sense from where I sit.

 

[insidejob]

Well, it's now being authorized. (Or considering authorization - which I'm sure is a formality.)

 

[The moose]

I read an interesting tweet that said all the children of Russian oligarchs who attend fancy private schools in Britain and the US should be expelled immediately and their visas revoked. I don’t know how many there are, but that sounds reasonable. Why should our countries educate the children of those who are supporting what Putin is doing?

Well we could extend that to all kinds of countries. Not a fan of what China does? Send them home

Now our universities will be bent they charge staggering amounts to the over 300k Chinese students. Russia doesn't have nearly the amount of students China and India do but yeah when Americans get staggering debt to get an education here we should not bend over for people that do horrible things.

What China does in Northwest China is just as bad.

 

[zztop]

But even then I doubt it'll have much impact in terms of Russia's aggression towards Ukraine. My (not that well-informed) impression is that Russia's approach is to annex, hold, and ride out the consequences until the new situation becomes normalised, and repeat as desired.

And that'll continue unless the response is strong enough that it either deters further aggression - and I'm not sure what that response would be - or it destabilises Putin's regime.

Putin saw how easy it was to annex Crimea. Seemingly all that happened was a slap on the wrist for such an action. Sure he might get condemned by most of the rest of Europe, but nothing of consequence really happens. He is one of the wealthiest people on this planet, so I'm willing to bet the threat of sanctions just makes him and his cronies chuckle.

 

[B4YOU]

Europe will do nothing. Sanctions are meaningless to Russia when conflict causes an oil price surge.

Putin will annex not just the conflict region but the entirety of those two oblasts. The only question left is will he take more now or later.

 

[MT15]

Well we could extend that to all kinds of countries. Not a fan of what China does? Send them home

Now our universities will be bent they charge staggering amounts to the over 300k Chinese students. Russia doesn't have nearly the amount of students China and India do but yeah when Americans get staggering debt to get an education here we should not bend over for people that do horrible things.

What China does in Northwest China is just as bad.

It would need to be limited to the children of the people responsible for the horrible things, but yes.

 

[MT15]

 

[MT15]

 

[Optimus Prime]

Of Course

Not sure if this is better here or in the Q thread
============

QAnon followers have gleefully thrown their support behind Vladimir Putin after the Russian president ordered troops into separatist areas of Ukraine.

Putin's decision to recognize the rebel regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent of Ukraine and to move Russian troops across its border was applauded by influencers within the online conspiracy movement.

While Putin's actions have been condemned by Washington D.C. and its allies, QAnon adherents have spun the breach of Ukraine's borders as a positive event, according to their world view.

For QAnon followers, Putin's move dealt a devastating blow to global elites, who they falsely believe are members of an ill-defined international cabal that facilitates a satanic pedophile network.

John Sabal, who previously went by the moniker QAnon John on Telegram, praised Putin's decision to recognize the rebel regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent.

In a series of February 21 posts, Sabal told his 80,430 Telegram followers: "Putin is straight gangsta. MSM (mainstream media) is totally losing their minds right now."

He then added: "So much for 'muh (my) war with Russia narrative. Psst…Deep state. You lose."

Romana Didulo, who bizarrely believes herself to be the Queen of Canada as well as its head of state, issued a fawning video message to Putin the same day, where she ordered NATO to withdraw from Ukraine.

In the message shared with her 77,270 Telegram followers, Didulo added: "Russia is not our enemy, but a friend. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and NATO forces should not be anywhere near Ukraine. And the Kingdom of Canada recognizes the three eastern Ukraine provinces who wishes to join Russia based on peace and prosperity (sic)."

NATO has said it has no plans to send combat forces to Ukraine.

Numerous QAnon influencers, with hundreds of thousands of Telegram followers between them, forwarded a post from a smaller conspiracy channel that declared that Monday was a "very bad day for the deep state and the global cabal.".............

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[MT15]

Because they’re being fed by Putin’s trolls. Have been since early on, if I had to guess.

 

[MT15]

Russian TV admitting that Trump was good for them:

 

[MT15]

Good thread here:

 

[SamAndreas]

"When it's all said and done, we're going to judge Russia by it's not it's words. And whatever Russia does next we're going to respond with unity, clarity, and conviction." -- Joe Biden February 22, 2022



He's doing what I want him to do, saying what I want him to say. I'm riding with Biden.

 

[superchuck500]

Russian TV admitting that Trump was good for them:

It's why if anyone says "Putin would have never done this with Trump in office" you can just look at them pathetically and say "You're right - bless your heart."

Trump was actively dismantling NATO, destabilizing Ukraine, and praising Putin in the press. Yes, it's totally true that Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine with Trump in office . . . because he was getting so much more.