Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[superchuck500]

I went to the replies and while some of what is twitted is known some of it is not. Are we sure about the gunfire video?

Not sure - but it appears that Russian cruise missiles are striking across Ukraine. Large explosions reported in the major cities, probably taking out air defense and other systems.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Not sure - but it appears that Russian cruise missiles are striking across Ukraine. Large explosions reported in the major cities, probably taking out air defense and other systems.

Yeah, I'm getting that news also.

Edit to add: I just heard they are missile strikes.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[superchuck500]

 

[H B Lowrey]

Speculation, haste, and confusion surrounding a final push to war are nothing new. The 24 hour news cycle didn't invent them.

Intuitively obvious to even the most casual of observers. Who argued that the 24 hour news cycle did invent them? Now, what has the 24 hour news cycle done with this pre-existing speculation, haste, and confusion surrounding a final push to war? Perhaps that was what was being referred to.

 

[UriUT]

Is this real? Christ.

 

[SamAndreas]

Is this real? Christ.

Its good that you're asking. I would think it's not real because Will Saletan writes for the The Bulwark, a neocon publication.

This is what Wikipedia has to say about them:

"The Bulwark is an American anti-Trump conservative and center-right news and opinion website founded in 2018 by commentators Charlie Sykes and Bill Kristol. Its publisher is Sarah Longwell."

They're where the folks from The Weekly Standard went after that sorry rag went bankrupt.

In my book Bill Kristol is not the same as Trump, but just as bad. He was front and center ring leader in the Project for a New American Century, those neocons who gave us a war not worth fighting with Iraq. A war we started that was just as bad as what Putin is now starting.

So I'd ignore that Twitter source.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Its good that you're asking. I would think it's not real because Will Saletan writes for the The Bulwark, a neocon publication.

This is what Wikipedia has to say about them:

"The Bulwark is an American anti-Trump conservative and center-right news and opinion website founded in 2018 by commentators Charlie Sykes and Bill Kristol. Its publisher is Sarah Longwell."

They're where the folks from The Weekly Standard went after that sorry rag went bankrupt.

In my book Bill Kristol is not the same as Trump, but just as bad. He was front and center ring leader in the Project for a New American Century, those neocons who gave us a war not worth fighting with Iraq. A war we started that was just as bad as what Putin is now starting.

So I'd ignore that Twitter source.

 

[UriUT]

Thanks. I don't watch fox news. I suspected that it was accurate since a few others retweeted it. Seriously...WTF??????

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Thanks. I don't watch fox news. I suspected that it was accurate since a few others retweeted it. Seriously...WTF??????

Comrade Tucker and Co. are the equivalent of Russian State Media, I expect nothing less from them. Nvmd the fact that this Russian invasion is happening because of the Ukrainian people rejecting the previous corrupt Russian puppet government and moved towards true democracy.

 

[samiam5211]

Putin has us by the balls and we are busy fighting over whether it is the Democrats or Republican's fault.

This has been a 20 year process for Putin.

We are in denial, this is WWIII.

 

[superchuck500]

Putin has us by the balls and we are busy fighting over whether it is the Democrats or Republican's fault.

This has been a 20 year process for Putin.

We are in denial, this is WWIII.

How is this WWIII?

 

[samiam5211]

How is this WWIII?

Ask that in a month, when China is taking back Taiwan, and Putin is moving his army towards the baltic states.

 

[insidejob]

So, have we abandoned the Fight Two Wars principle with our military or not? Sure looks like it.

Here is a link to an article from 2018 about just that.

 

[insidejob]

Its good that you're asking. I would think it's not real because Will Saletan writes for the The Bulwark, a neocon publication.

This is what Wikipedia has to say about them:

"The Bulwark is an American anti-Trump conservative and center-right news and opinion website founded in 2018 by commentators Charlie Sykes and Bill Kristol. Its publisher is Sarah Longwell."

They're where the folks from The Weekly Standard went after that sorry rag went bankrupt.

In my book Bill Kristol is not the same as Trump, but just as bad. He was front and center ring leader in the Project for a New American Century, those neocons who gave us a war not worth fighting with Iraq. A war we started that was just as bad as what Putin is now starting.

So I'd ignore that Twitter source.

He got hired at the Bulwark like a week ago. (You follow him pretty closely for someone you hate.) And if what they currently put out is "neocon" then the Trump cult are just regular conservatives and liberals are actually socialists.

About Tucker Carlson:

Father Carlson

Tucker Carlson is on Russia’s side.

www.thebulwark.com

Tease:

Eighty years ago, when a dictator rose to power in Europe and invaded his neighbors, he found an ally in the United States. The dictator was Adolf Hitler, and his ally was Charles Coughlin, a popular radio host. Coughlin belittled democracy, defended the Nazis, and opposed America’s entry into the war, arguing that the movement to enlist the United States was a conspiracy on behalf of a sinister minority: Jews.

Today, a new demagogue has taken up Coughlin’s mantle: Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

Like Coughlin, Carlson has spewed venom for years. And, like Coughlin, he has gradually made his treachery, nihilism, and bigotry unmistakable. If anyone still thought there was an innocent explanation for his behavior, Carlson’s latest monologue, delivered on Tuesday night, rendered such generosity indefensible.

To begin with, Carlson mocked the idea that rolling tanks into another country was wrong. In the view of liberals, he joked, “Invading America is called ‘equity’”—apparently he was referring to illegal immigration—but “invading Ukraine is a war crime.” He delivered this line with scornful incredulity, ignoring the fact that Russia’s invasions of Ukraine—this is the second one in eight years—are indeed acts of war and violations of international law.

Carlson downplayed the putative moral differences between Russia, Ukraine, Canada, and the United States. He asked why Americans should side with Ukraine against Russia, since Ukraine was “not a democracy.” (Actually, on the Freedom House democracy scale, Ukraine gets a rating of 39 out of 100. Russia gets less than seven.) Carlson also ridiculed the notion that “dastardly old Vladimir Putin” is “much worse than Justin Trudeau,” the prime minister of Canada, who—according to Carlson’s absurd lie—has imposed “martial law” and reduced Canada to a “failed democrac[y].” Turning to his own country, Carlson denounced America’s current leaders, saying they “don’t care at all” about our country’s stated principles.

In his monologue and in a follow-up interview with former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Carlson promoted the slander—often featured in Russian state propaganda—that when American politicians talk about defending freedom or democracy, they’re really just serving their own commercial interests. He offered two explanations for the U.S. government’s support of Ukraine: corrupt financial ties between Ukraine and President Joe Biden and a secret plot to drive up energy prices. “Maybe expensive energy would be good for the many renewable deals their friends and donors are invested in,” he speculated—the “they” referring to Biden and other Democrats. In the interview with Gabbard, Carlson nodded along—“Right,” he interjected—as Gabbard accused the American “power elite” of betraying both “the American people” and “the Russian people.”

Like many people who once knew Carlson, I used to like him. It’s hard to admit what he has become. And I’m very reluctant to accuse people of the worst acts or motives: racial animus, betraying the United States and its values, serving the interests of a hostile foreign power.

Give me any other explanation for their behavior, and I’ll take it. But for Carlson, there’s no longer any other explanation. This is what he is.

 

[B4YOU]

All those “Russia is bluffing” and “Putin cornered himself” articles look real dumb now.

I said in Jan in post #74 that Putin would take 6-8 oblasts and maybe Kiev. Last night there were reports of explosions in Kiev and Odessa. This morning there are reports of explosions in the NW corner of Ukraine. Russian media is redrawing historical Ukraine to justify taking the whole of the country. It appears the new Russian border will return to the 1922 border with the whole of Ukraine in Russia’s control.

 

[insidejob]

Damn. Stupid arse Russia just blew up a nuclear waste site in Chernobyl. Ukraine, Belarus and others are going to get hit with a wave of radioactive dust - according to the reporter on tv right now.

 

[Dragon]

Damn. Stupid arse Russia just blew up a nuclear waste site in Chernobyl. Ukraine, Belarus and others are going to get hit with a wave of radioactive dust - according to the reporter on tv right now.

NOT good! We actually got some fallout from that when the accident happened