Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SamAndreas]

He got hired at the Bulwark like a week ago. (You follow him pretty closely for someone you hate.) And if what they currently put out is "neocon" then the Trump cult are just regular conservatives and liberals are actually socialists.

It says on his twitter he writes for the Bulwark. I don't follow him at all. Who said I hate him, I didn't say I hate him. I don't hate him, I suggest that it would be a good idea to Ignore him. And I stand by that.

 

[Complex Kid]

"The Price of gas is about to get more expensive"

Glad Tucker and Fox News are focusing on the important part of all of this...

 

[zztop]

Not that it would matter much, but the UN needs to kick Russia out


Article 1

The Purposes of the United Nations are:

To maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace;

To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, and to take other appropriate measures to strengthen universal peace;

To achieve international co-operation in solving international problems of an economic, social, cultural, or humanitarian character, and in promoting and encouraging respect for human rights and for fundamental freedoms for all without distinction as to race, sex, language, or religion; and

To be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations in the attainment of these common ends.



Article 2

The Organization and its Members, in pursuit of the Purposes stated in Article 1, shall act in accordance with the following Principles.

The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.

All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from membership, shall fulfill in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.

All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.

All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

All Members shall give the United Nations every assistance in any action it takes in accordance with the present Charter, and shall refrain from giving assistance to any state against which the United Nations is taking preventive or enforcement action.

The Organization shall ensure that states which are not Members of the United Nations act in accordance with these Principles so far as may be necessary for the maintenance of international peace and security.

Nothing contained in the present Charter shall authorize the United Nations to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state or shall require the Members to submit such matters to settlement under the present Charter; but this principle shall not prejudice the application of enforcement measures under Chapter Vll.

 

[bdb13]

I made it 40 forking seconds.

This bullshirt and Trump's open praise for Putin in his handling of Ukraine is what I mean when I say this shirt has transcended the Left/Right spectrum and it's become democratic-leaning versus authoritarian-leaning and most everything else is a distraction from that fact.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

@Farb I thought the whole Russia-madness was much to do about nothing? I'd ask @SaintForLife too but he seems to have taken a bit of a break -- no worries I do that, too.

As I've said all along, that Putin gained from a Trump presidency is obvious and now its paying dividends for Putin with nearly half of America carrying his water.

 

[insidejob]

The support I'm seeing from some of the American Patriot Conservatives for Russia all over the internet is pretty revealing.

 

[MT15]

This is interesting, if true:

 

[MT15]

NBC reporting same surrender:

 

[brandon]

I made it 40 forking seconds.

This bullshirt and Trump's open praise for Putin in his handling of Ukraine is what I mean when I say this shirt has transcended the Left/Right spectrum and it's become democratic-leaning versus authoritarian-leaning and most everything else is a distraction from that fact.

The brandons are united against authoritarianism.

 

[bdb13]

NBC reporting same surrender:

Ukrainians could make this extraordinarily difficult for Putin and Russia, I would think. And the will for them to attempt to do so is going to be there.

 

[insidejob]

Ukrainians could make this extraordinarily difficult for Putin and Russia, I would think. And the will for them to attempt to do so is going to be there.

And it seems they're willing to put their personal partisan BS aside and are united behind their president and defending their country against Putin.

 

[CoolBrees]

@superchuck500 posted a fantastic article on the main site from the Atlantic. Ukraine isn’t going to just roll over. Between that and the attached from Reuter’s is why I think this is not going to be easy.

I have said it before, how in the world is Putin planning on holding Ukraine with 160,000 troops?

He has air superiority as well as naval. He will take Kyiv, but holding it? That is a problem. Occupying is bloody.

We will see how much stomach the Russian people have for their families coming home in bags.

So what is his endgame?

Factbox: How Ukraine's armed forces shape up against Russia's

Ukraine's armed forces are heavily outnumbered and outgunned by Russia's, but as Russia begins what may be a large-scale invasion, military experts say they would be capable of mounting significant resistance and inflicting heavy casualties.

www.reuters.com

 

[Farb]

@Farb I thought the whole Russia-madness was much to do about nothing? I'd ask @SaintForLife too but he seems to have taken a bit of a break -- no worries I do that, too.

As I've said all along, that Putin gained from a Trump presidency is obvious and now its paying dividends for Putin with nearly half of America carrying his water.

Sure, Russia was just waiting on what exactly?
A new POTUS that was not his 'ally' or love buddy to go to war and maybe bring Europe into it? Seems like if Russia and Trump were best buddies, Russia would have invaded then. I wonder why Russia didn't?
Either way you cut, Russia has no fear at all of the US and NATO now, that much is obvious.

 

[UriUT]

Really? They invaded a country that wants to join nato so they can prevent them from joining nato. Yet they're not afraid of nato. Let me get out my abacus....1 + 1 = 0.

 

[coldseat]

Sure, Russia was just waiting on what exactly?
A new POTUS that was not his 'ally' or love buddy to go to war and maybe bring Europe into it? Seems like if Russia and Trump were best buddies, Russia would have invaded then. I wonder why Russia didn't?
Either way you cut, Russia has no fear at all of the US and NATO now, that much is obvious.

Trump spent 4 years weakening NATO and our traditional western allies with his rhetoric and actions and causing massive divisions here at home while pumping up authoritarians like Putin by buddying up with him. He was doing all of Putin's work for him. Putin, figured this was an opportune time to strike because he thought he had Germany in a compromised position and that NATO was at its weakest point thanks to Trump.

Thankfully we have Biden in charge now, who at least understands the threat from Putin and is versed in geopolitics. Things would be even more unstable if Biden didn't rally NATO to unite and stiffen their backs.

This isn't going to go well for Putin. Globally or at home.

 

[Farb]

Really? They invaded a country that wants to join nato so they can prevent them from joining nato. Yet they're not afraid of nato. Let me get out my abacus....1 + 1 = 0.

So you think provoking NATO to war shows a fear of NATO? How is your abacus coming along?

 

[MT15]

Sure, Russia was just waiting on what exactly?
A new POTUS that was not his 'ally' or love buddy to go to war and maybe bring Europe into it? Seems like if Russia and Trump were best buddies, Russia would have invaded then. I wonder why Russia didn't?
Either way you cut, Russia has no fear at all of the US and NATO now, that much is obvious.

This is not a good way to look at it. It’s just as coldseat says: when Trump was president he was weakening NATO by his words and deeds, so Putin was willing to wait because he hoped NATO would fracture on its own. But with Trump no longer doing that for him, he decided he couldn’t wait any longer.

 

[Farb]

Trump spent 4 years weakening NATO and our traditional western allies with his rhetoric and actions and causing massive divisions here at home while pumping up authoritarians like Putin by buddying up with him. He was doing all of Putin's work for him. Putin, figured this was an opportune time to strike because he thought he had Germany in a compromised position and that NATO was at its weakest point thanks to Trump.

Thankfully we have Biden in charge now, who at least understands the threat from Putin and is versed in geopolitics. Things would be even more unstable if Biden didn't rally NATO to unite and stiffen their backs.

This isn't going to go well for Putin. Globally or at home.

I know, imagine if NATO countries spent their share of money to beef up their own military instead of relying on the US. Is that what you mean by weakening NATO?