Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[brandon]

So you think provoking NATO to war shows a fear of NATO? How is your abacus coming along?

I'm sorry, did Putin attack a NATO country we weren't aware of?

 

[UriUT]

So you think provoking NATO to war shows a fear of NATO? How is your abacus coming along?

My small brain needs an abacus again. How does attacking a weaker foe who has no link to NATO be provoking NATO? Tell me attacking Poland for example is more like sticking it to NATO.

This is 4d level chess.

 

[coldseat]

I know, imagine if NATO countries spent their share of money to beef up their own military instead of relying on the US. Is that what you mean by weakening NATO?

No. I meant exactly what I said.

Trump spent 4 years weakening NATO and our traditional western allies with his rhetoric and actions

Why are you and other conservatives so committed to doing Putin's work for him?

 

[LA - L.A.]

No. I meant exactly what I said.


Why are you and other conservatives so committed to doing Putin's work for him?

They see Putin as a kindred spirit, because of their shared xenophobia, And like with Putin, their xenophobia is the primary motivator in their lives. Putin is going to order people to commit mass murder, that's how he plans on holding Ukraine. Hopefully he will be disobeyed or forcefully stopped.

 

[Lapaz]

They see Putin as a kindred spirit, because of their shared xenophobia, And like with Putin, their xenophobia is the primary motivator in their lives. Putin is going to order people to commit mass murder, that's how he plans on holding Ukraine. Hopefully he will be disobeyed or forcefully stopped.

Yes, Putin is the leader many on the right dream of. They don't appreciate how good we have it with our freedoms. No one agrees with you all of the time, and even "kindred" authoritarians will do things you don't like, but then you won't have the freedom to complain or a right to solicit change. It has happened in countries all over the world that similar narrowminded and short-sighted people have supported authoritarians, only later to regret it. Many on the right think Trump is their dream-boat, but can't see past their noses to realize that he won't solve whatever problems they have in their life that leads them to want to support an authoritarian.

As far as the conflict in Ukraine, I've been hearing that Russia's soldiers may not want to fight Ukranians, while Ukranians are motivated to keep their way of life. Even if Russia wins quickly, this could easily turn into an insurgency that will be a drain on Russia, on top of the sanctions, and they may have to abandon much quicker than they abandoned Afghanistan.

 

[MT15]

 

[MT15]

And this:

 

[Lapaz]

Yeah baby! Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine!

 

[Lapaz]

By the way, electronics are going to be impacted.

Semiconductors, food supplies at risk amid elusive situation in Europe - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

"Ukraine is a major supplier of semiconductor raw material gases, including neon, argon, krypton and xenon. Ukraine supplies nearly 70 percent of the world's neon gas."

 

[superchuck500]

Sure, Russia was just waiting on what exactly?
A new POTUS that was not his 'ally' or love buddy to go to war and maybe bring Europe into it? Seems like if Russia and Trump were best buddies, Russia would have invaded then. I wonder why Russia didn't?
Either way you cut, Russia has no fear at all of the US and NATO now, that much is obvious.

I don’t think it’s about fear - it’s about calculating relative interests. Putin has correctly calculated that the US and NATO will not engage Russia militarily over Ukraine. And he has calculated that he can ride out the sanctions and other response - but we don’t if that’s true yet.

But seriously, it’s abundantly obvious why Putin didn't invade Ukraine under Trump.
Because Trump was activity undermining NATO in a number of ways, antagonizing Western European allies, and withholding arms to Ukraine.

Why on earth would Putin do anything to mess that up? Trump advanced far bigger goals for Putin than what he gets from invading Ukraine.

 

[superchuck500]

Ask that in a month, when China is taking back Taiwan, and Putin is moving his army towards the baltic states.

Okay, let’s talk in a month.

 

[UriUT]

Unreal.

 

[MT15]

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Sure, Russia was just waiting on what exactly?

Most likely setting up trade arrangements with China which Putin basically concluded with Xi about a week ago. And as others have mentioned, why act when Trump is President as he's basically doing your job for you with zero cost?

As far as the 'no fear now' thing, I see you've pivoted to the right's current talking point of 'weakness' after they realized doubling-down on praising Putin wouldn't fly with a lot of voters. You send in troops and it's a nuclear holocaust and the world ends.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I know, imagine if NATO countries spent their share of money to beef up their own military instead of relying on the US. Is that what you mean by weakening NATO?

Bless your almost child-like libertarian heart for still thinking the US can exist in vacuum and ignore global politics.

 

[B4YOU]

Unreal.

You can listen to the audio exchange and even watch a Snake Island soldier’s TikTok of the initial Russian fire.

13 dead over a meaningless rock in the Black Sea.

 

[MT15]

This guy is supposed to be a journalist for a Kyiv paper. I don’t know if he is accurate or not:

 

[MT15]

I think this guy is legit: