Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

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    superchuck500

    superchuck500

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    Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

    Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.


    VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

    But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

    Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

    There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
    Click to expand...

    www.nytimes.com

    Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

    If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.
    www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com


    www.nytimes.com

    Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

    Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.
    www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

    snyder.substack.com

    How to think about war in Ukraine

    Start with the Ukrainians
    snyder.substack.com snyder.substack.com


     
    zztop said:
    speaking of this


    apparently it first started circulating on pro-russian outlets first.
    but then again, if this actually took place by Ukraine soldiers, I'd call shooting Russian kneecaps pretty mild compared to atrocities Russians have committed against Ukrainian civilians etc
    Click to expand...
    The ukrainians have issued a statement that claims it was false. I tend to agree with you that it probably happened but am uncertain. I can understand why these soldiers may have shot these pows considering the atrocities the russians have committed: rape, deliberately bombing civilians, etc. However these war crimes cannot happen. The reason that ukrainians have garnered near universal support internationally is because they portrayed this war as a good vs evil war. A fight for freedom and self determination. If this and other acts come out, they risk losing support. Why support the ukrainians if they arent any better than the Russians? The russians are already using the azoz battalion and some have latched on to that.
     


    The ridiculousness of these Russians. I believe amb mcfaul made a point that lavrov has minimal contribution to any negotiations. Mcfaul almost never sees him when he was serving. In other words this guy is not a serious person...more akin to baghdad Bob.
     
    UriUT said:
    The ukrainians have issued a statement that claims it was false. I tend to agree with you that it probably happened but am uncertain. I can understand why these soldiers may have shot these pows considering the atrocities the russians have committed: rape, deliberately bombing civilians, etc. However these war crimes cannot happen. The reason that ukrainians have garnered near universal support internationally is because they portrayed this war as a good vs evil war. A fight for freedom and self determination. If this and other acts come out, they risk losing support. Why support the ukrainians if they arent any better than the Russians? The russians are already using the azoz battalion and some have latched on to that.
    Click to expand...

    I can't disagree with this, and I realize it is a slippery slope etc. Just a little unusual it would appear on pro Russian sites first, if that info is accurate.
     
    In a war it seems you will have bad actors who will break the rules on just about any side. We’ve seen some bad behavior among our own troops. I would judge that differently than when the entire objective of the aggression seems to be aimed at destroying civilian targets and killing civilians.
     
    This is what happens when the person in charge doesn’t care one bit about human life, his own troops or civilians.

     
    zztop said:
    speaking of this


    apparently it first started circulating on pro-russian outlets first.
    but then again, if this actually took place by Ukraine soldiers, I'd call shooting Russian kneecaps pretty mild compared to atrocities Russians have committed against Ukrainian civilians etc
    Click to expand...
    Of course I have no idea about the veracity of this but it certainly raises a lot of questions if true. First, the tapes tell you it isn't compulsive. It's well organized. Second, what do they do with the wounded prisoners? Just leave them to die or suffer? If they treat them then you're just using your own scarce medical supplies. Third, if I'm a Russian soldier and I think I'll be tortured if captured, I'm fighting to the death rather than raising my hands in surrender.

    Too bad.
     
    zztop said:
    I can't disagree with this, and I realize it is a slippery slope etc. Just a little unusual it would appear on pro Russian sites first, if that info is accurate.
    Click to expand...
    I saw the video in question. There were a lot of Russians on the ground, many wounded. Some Ukrainian soldiers pointing rifles, threatening and pushing the Russians towards the ground. None discharged their weapons. The tail end was what became questionable. 2 Russian soldiers were thrown from a vehicle and grimaced. That was supposedly when one can see a rifle discharged. It looked odd and the soldier did react. I’m not an expert on this so i don’t know what to make of it. But in generaI wouldn’t rule out such actions off camera. Ukrainians have recorded pows and such. That is against the Geneva convention I believe.

    Edit: I just remembered one video of a Ukrainian soldier calling the mother of the deceased Russian soldier on that soldiers own phone. He taunted the mother that the son was dead. It’s cruel, even with all the reports of women at home in Russia encouraging looting and killing Ukrainians.

    Edit: and to the credit of the Ukrainian leadership, they recognize the potential harm and have reminded their troops to adhere to the Geneva convention. That viet cong soldier executed on the streets by a south Vietnamese officer harmed their cause immensely.
     
    Last edited:
    SaulGoodmanEsq said:
    It wouldn't surprise me but... that's what you get for invading a sovereign nation.
    Click to expand...
    Let's not forget that the average Russian soldier didn't ask to go to Ukraine. So, while he is responsible for his actions while he is there, he is not responsible for being there in the first place. Now any mercenaries on the Russian side or other kinds of volunteers from elsewhere are a different story.
     
    BullSheetBuddha said:
    Let's not forget that the average Russian soldier didn't ask to go to Ukraine. So, while he is responsible for his actions while he is there, he is not responsible for being there in the first place. Now any mercenaries on the Russian side or other kinds of volunteers from elsewhere are a different story.
    Click to expand...
    I’m beginning to question the “innocence” of these mf Russian soldiers. Some yeah but the atrocities are unbearable. The intercepted calls tell a different innocent story. I suppose many come from poor background and don’t know better. and many are of ethnic minorities who sees no other opportunities. Still there comes a time when your moral compass needs to click. There are reports of soldiers hitching rides back to the contested region in Georgia after refusing orders. Raping a young mother after killing her husband while her young child is hiding nearby deserves the worst warcrime conviction.

    Hell this war has serious support in Russia. Don’t give me this bs about propaganda. You hear calls of people back home encouraging looting and killing. Family in Ukraine pleading to deaf ears of their relatives back in Russia. Soldiers giving orders to bomb civilians after clearing out their “properties”. Families who view their sons a commodities. They don’t search out what happens to their dead sons. A chess super grandmaster was mocking the Kyiv mayor and calling for his death. He has access to western, unadulterated media.
     
    BullSheetBuddha said:
    Second, what do they do with the wounded prisoners? Just leave them to die or suffer? If they treat them then you're just using your own scarce medical supplies.
    Click to expand...

    I did wonder about this too. I don't know how serious those types of injuries are in normal circumstances, but given the conditions due to the war etc... I wonder if that is just a slow, painful death
     

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