Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (3 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[DaveXA]

I wonder if those are the same mines that some crazy Ukrainian driver drove through.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.

 

[UriUT]

Wow, unexpected escalation by the Biden admin.

 

[DaveXA]

Wow, unexpected escalation by the Biden admin.

Escalation? This invasion was escalated weeks ago. And hasn't changed. Russia claimed they would be pulling back their troops and would change their tactics. But a week later, nothing new. We need to send tanks, fighter jets, and other offensive weapons to push Russian troops out of Ukraine. I don't give a shirt about Putin getting mad. He's just going to continue his familiar ramblings and they'll pout like they usually do.

I would push Russia out. Then let them grumble. They're not going to do much else. They know they're going to eventually get embarrassed if they try to keep up the charade.

 

[MT15]

Wow, unexpected escalation by the Biden admin.

I don’t see it as escalation. We’ve been providing a heck of a lot of weapons already.

 

[DaveXA]

I don’t see it as escalation. We’ve been providing a heck of a lot of weapons already.

And fwiw, Ukraine has been fighting with their hands tied this entire war. Their equipment, aside from some defensive weapons, are mostly inferior to Russia's. And not having air cover makes it nearly impossible to go on offense. There are more pilots than there are planes, and the planes they currently do have are 2 generations older than most Russian aircraft. The pilots the Ukrainians have are actually very good. They just need better tech and equipment and they would have a fighting chance to control at least part of their skies.

 

[zztop]

no words

Ukraine says 410 bodies found near Kyiv, witnesses traumatised

Ukraine has found 410 bodies in towns near Kyiv as part of an investigation into possible war crimes by Russia but some witnesses are so traumatised by their ordeal that they are unable to speak, the country's top prosecutor said on Sunday.

www.reuters.com

 

[UriUT]

I don’t see it as escalation. We’ve been providing a heck of a lot of weapons already.

According to macron, tanks seems to be an escalation. We ve been very specific on what we sent. Anti tanks, ammunition, drones, and short range shoulder sam. I'm seeing now anti ship missiles? I think its escalation but i dont think Russia will react differently to these news.

 

[UriUT]

And supposedly the ukrainians have regained most of if not all of the north. And out of the 75 btg 34 are to be regrouped and 16 totally destroyed.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I'm concerned that Putin's next move is going to be gas/chemical weapons with his conventional forces pulling back.

 

[UriUT]

I'm concerned that Putin's next move is going to be gas/chemical weapons with his conventional forces pulling back.

You aren't the only one. I believe the US sent some gear and counter measures for chemical weapons.

 

[UriUT]

Here is Michael Kofman's latest assessment of the war. Note that he explains after this post in the thread that he is only assessing force availability, and not performance. And we've seen that the Ukrainians have been superior there. Plus, they are at full mobilization; thus they may now outnumber the Russians in manpower.

 

[MT15]

Some interesting evidence that the Russians’ claim about Nazis in Ukraine may contain a large measure of projection:

 

[DaveXA]

According to macron, tanks seems to be an escalation. We ve been very specific on what we sent. Anti tanks, ammunition, drones, and short range shoulder sam. I'm seeing now anti ship missiles? I think its escalation but i dont think Russia will react differently to these news.

Is it really an escalation though? It's not like Russia hasn't gotten us there. I mean, sooner or later, Ukraine is going to run out of tanks, planes and everything else, and they will need to replace that equipment, so nah, it's just helping Ukraine maintain their current readiness to fight.

 

[DaveXA]

And supposedly the ukrainians have regained most of if not all of the north. And out of the 75 btg 34 are to be regrouped and 16 totally destroyed.

Sort of, Russia was already pulling out anyway, so that regained territory is mostly due to the pullout and only partly due to UKR pushing them out.

That said, clearly they're pulling out because they couldn't surround and take Kyiv. That's due to Ukranian defenses held up. Going on the offensive and counterattacking is much different and Ukraine needs the kind of weapons, like tanks, planes and armored vehicles to sustain a successful conterattack.

 

[J-DONK]

Sort of, Russia was already pulling out anyway, so that regained territory is mostly due to the pullout and only partly due to UKR pushing them out.

That said, clearly they're pulling out because they couldn't surround and take Kyiv. That's due to Ukranian defenses held up. Going on the offensive and counterattacking is much different and Ukraine needs the kind of weapons, like tanks, planes and armored vehicles to sustain a successful conterattack.

I don't know man. Drones, javelins, and night vision gear are doing some heavy lifting in this conflict.

 

[DaveXA]

I don't know man. Drones, javelins, and night vision gear are doing some heavy lifting in this conflict.

They are, but those things don't hold down territories in an (counter)offensive. You need vehicles for that.

 

[UriUT]

Is it really an escalation though? It's not like Russia hasn't gotten us there. I mean, sooner or later, Ukraine is going to run out of tanks, planes and everything else, and they will need to replace that equipment, so nah, it's just helping Ukraine maintain their current readiness to fight.

it is by the West. It’s a clear deviation from what we’ve been doing. And the news that I’m reading are that it’s not a done deal. It may be offensive.

Sort of, Russia was already pulling out anyway, so that regained territory is mostly due to the pullout and only partly due to UKR pushing them out.

That said, clearly they're pulling out because they couldn't surround and take Kyiv. That's due to Ukranian defenses held up. Going on the offensive and counterattacking is much different and Ukraine needs the kind of weapons, like tanks, planes and armored vehicles to sustain a successful conterattack.

No they retreated. The nsa advisor said so today.

 

[DaveXA]

it is by the West. It’s a clear deviation from what we’ve been doing. And the news that I’m reading are that it’s not a done deal. It may be offensive.

No they retreated. The nsa advisor said so today.

We'll see. So, the Russians aren't escalating things? Do we just sit there and let them rape and kill everyone? Does that not deserve a stronger, or escelated response?


Eh, whether they retreated or pulled out, they've mostly left because they stated as much a week ago. Maybe they were doing a head fake and the Ukranians made sure they weren't just posing, either way, they're moving away from Kyiv, and that's good news.