Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[UriUT]

Right. That kind of activity is only harmful to your own cause.

What do you mean? Killing a small time soldier already apprehended in front of the camera vs turning an American audience against the south Vietnamese government?

 

[UriUT]

I did wonder about this too. I don't know how serious those types of injuries are in normal circumstances, but given the conditions due to the war etc... I wonder if that is just a slow, painful death

The ukrainians have said they bring wounded Russian soldiers to their hospitals and treating them. And by all accounts from international reporting they are.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

What do you mean? Killing a small time soldier already apprehended in front of the camera vs turning an American audience against the south Vietnamese government?

What do you mean what do I mean? Obviously, killing a POW in front of the whole world doesn't exactly help your cause.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

The ukrainians have said they bring wounded Russian soldiers to their hospitals and treating them. And by all accounts from international reporting they are.

Good, I hope they keep it up.

 

[UriUT]

What do you mean what do I mean? Obviously, killing a POW in front of the whole world doesn't exactly help your cause.

Ok. I misunderstood. My fault.

 

[DaveXA]

I saw the video in question. There were a lot of Russians on the ground, many wounded. Some Ukrainian soldiers pointing rifles, threatening and pushing the Russians towards the ground. None discharged their weapons. The tail end was what became questionable. 2 Russian soldiers were thrown from a vehicle and grimaced. That was supposedly when one can see a rifle discharged. It looked odd and the soldier did react. I’m not an expert on this so i don’t know what to make of it. But in generaI wouldn’t rule out such actions off camera. Ukrainians have recorded pows and such. That is against the Geneva convention I believe.

Edit: I just remembered one video of a Ukrainian soldier calling the mother of the deceased Russian soldier on that soldiers own phone. He taunted the mother that the son was dead. It’s cruel, even with all the reports of women at home in Russia encouraging looting and killing Ukrainians.

Edit: and to the credit of the Ukrainian leadership, they recognize the potential harm and have reminded their troops to adhere to the Geneva convention. That viet cong soldier executed on the streets by a south Vietnamese officer harmed their cause immensely.

I watched the Ukranian soldier call the alleged deceased soldier's mother. I'm 99% sure that was fake. When you ask the questions that need to be asked, i.e. how do we know the soldier is dead, how do we know it was his mother, how did he get her number, and he supposedly used the dead soldier's phone, which I would assume is password protected. I mean, maybe it's true. But it doesn't really add up in my mind.

Also, Russian soldiers generally are not issued phones and not allowed to bring their own for obvious security reasons. They've actually been using stolen Ukranian phones to communicate.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Ok. I misunderstood. My fault.

No problem.

 

[UriUT]

I watched the Ukranian soldier call the alleged deceased soldier's mother. I'm 99% sure that was fake. When you ask the questions that need to be asked, i.e. how do we know the soldier is dead, how do we know it was his mother, how did he get her number, and he supposedly used the dead soldier's phone, which I would assume is password protected. I mean, maybe it's true. But it doesn't really add up in my mind.

Also, Russian soldiers generally are not issued phones and not allowed to bring their own for obvious security reasons. They've actually been using stolen Ukranian phones to communicate.

I don't think finding the mother's number is hard once the soldier is identified. You do bring up a good point about the phone s ownership. That puts real doubt to the authenticity of that video. My problem is the person on the other end had a real genuine reaction. That is really sick if it is fake to discredit the Ukrainians. There haven't been any official response that I've seen on that video yet. Who knows.

 

[nolaspe]

Has this been posted yet? 'And again', yeah, that whole collusion thing w/ the rooskies in '16 and '20 were total farces, amirite?

 

[UriUT]

There Is No Liberal World Order

Unless democracies defend themselves, the forces of autocracy will destroy them.

www.theatlantic.com

This is a long, and amazing piece.

Nobody else anywhere in the Western world felt any threat at all. For 30 years, Western oil and gas companies piled into Russia, partnering with Russian oligarchs who had openly stolen the assets they controlled. Western financial institutions did lucrative business in Russia too, setting up systems to allow those same Russian kleptocrats to export their stolen money and keep it parked, anonymously, in Western property and banks. We convinced ourselves that there was no harm in enriching dictators and their cronies. Trade, we imagined, would transform our trading partners. Wealth would bring liberalism. Capitalism would bring democracy—and democracy would bring peace.

This has been one of our core tenets in our foreign policy. Opening our markets will one day bring liberalism to China and Russia. Well who knew that trading with these autocratic nations would corrupt our system.

Even when the Russians, having grown rich on the kleptocracy we facilitated, bought Western politicians, funded far-right extremist movements, and ran disinformation campaigns during American and European democratic elections, the leaders of America and Europe still refused to take them seriously. It was just some posts on Facebook; so what? We didn’t believe that we were at war with Russia. We believed, instead, that we were safe and free, protected by treaties, by border guarantees, and by the norms and rules of the liberal world order.

Here we have very suspicious relations between Boris Johnson and the Russian Oligarchs.



And of course, we know what happened in our country.

 

[UriUT]

“Now we're going to f*ck them all.” What's happening in Russia's elites after a month of war

Sanctions and propaganda have rallied even those who were against the invasion around Putin

faridaily.substack.com

Very long read and fractuous. Worth reading though.

“Since they adopted sanctions against us, we’re going to f*ck them. Now they’ll have to buy rubles on the Moscow Exchange to buy gas from us. But that's just the beginning. Now we're going to f*ck them all.”

In short, it can be said that, over the past month, Putin’s dream of a consolidation among the Russian elite has come true. These people understand that their lives are now tied only to Russia, and that that’s where they’ll need to build them. The differences and the influence of various circles and clans have been erased by the fact that, for the most part, people have lost their past positions and resources.

For years, after seeing the color springs blossom around him in Ukraine, Belarus, etc and seeing dictators die humiliating deaths, Putin has paradoxically achieved from a failing war what he sought. A united Russia, all supporting him.

 

[DaveXA]

“Now we're going to f*ck them all.” What's happening in Russia's elites after a month of war

Sanctions and propaganda have rallied even those who were against the invasion around Putin

faridaily.substack.com

Very long read and fractuous. Worth reading though.




For years, after seeing the color springs blossom around him in Ukraine, Belarus, etc and seeing dictators die humiliating deaths, Putin has paradoxically achieved from a failing war what he sought. A united Russia, all supporting him.

Eh, I dunno. There was recent polling in Russia where Putin's support has actually be trending down, not up. Supposedly it's around the low 60% range. Which if I understand correctly has been steadily dropping for a while now.

 

[UriUT]

Eh, I dunno. There was recent polling in Russia where Putin's support has actually be trending down, not up. Supposedly it's around the low 60% range. Which if I understand correctly has been steadily dropping for a while now.

Nah according to the last independent Russian polling, his approval rating is up. Take that polling with a caveat that those polled may not be truthful. They may be weary that what they say may be reported, as has been for all polling in Russia.

 

[UriUT]

Here's another thread of the sentiments in Russia. They are in a trance. Remember the sentiments in our country in the opening days of the 2nd Iraq war?

 

[UriUT]

WTF?

 

[UriUT]

We've read the news that Putin has been isolating, possibly due to covid fears. The big news from this article is that he may have suffered from thyroid cancer.

Evidence of the importance of Shcheglov can be considered the fact that last year his father, Nikolai Shcheglov, also a surgeon, was made a State Duma deputy from United Russia .

Lor - and Putin, as it was said, is followed by several doctors of this specialty - is the doctor who, among other things, can be the first to detect problems with the thyroid gland, including oncological ones. Then a surgeon and an oncologist are involved, Israeli doctor Mikhail Fremderman believes.

Putin has publicly shown interest in the problem of thyroid cancer. In July 2020, he met with the head of the National Medical Research Center for Endocrinology, Ivan Dedov, who is the boss of Putin's eldest daughter Maria. Dedov told the president about the high prevalence of thyroid cancer and spoke about the new hormonal drug "Tyrogin", which fights metastases after surgery. “Recovery of 95-98%?” Putin asked and heard an affirmative answer.

 

[DaveXA]

WTF?

While it looks dangerous as hell, those are actually anti-tank mines and not anti-personnel. It takes a substantial amount of weight/pressure to detonate those things.

 

[UriUT]

While it looks dangerous as hell, those are actually anti-tank mines and not anti-personnel. It takes a substantial amount of weight/pressure to detonate those things.

I wonder if those are the same mines that some crazy Ukrainian driver drove through.