Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[UriUT]

Someone here mentioned McDowell's??

 

[coldseat]

Someone here mentioned McDowell's??

That was sad, even by Russian standards, lol.

I can't stop watching the light on the sign falling over at the end,

 

[UriUT]

This is interesting:

Sounds like we ve lost the war so now its about attrition from now to me.

Here is someone much more knowledgeable interpreting it. Good read.

 

[UriUT]

Are they really suppressing your views, Tulsi? Or did the majority of your views come from Russian bots and trolls? Lol

This such a weird timeline that we live.

 

[Taurus]

This such a weird timeline that we live.

Man, I'd like someone to do an investigative report on Tulsi. How on Earth does a Hawaiian Democrat become so right-wing unhinged?

 

[zztop]

Wow found a twitter of an American fighting in Ukraine. I’m just going through his feed. Quite insane.

This my fav so far.



This one made me laugh. “Welcome America”.

^ from the same person

 

[Optimus Prime]

Very interesting take from Bill Maher

 

[MT15]

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Very interesting take from Bill Maher

100% agree with it.

 

[zztop]

some interesting info here, for example: He ruled out trying to recapture all Russian-held territory by force, saying it would lead to a third world war, and said he wanted to reach a "compromise" over the eastern Donbas region, held by Russian-backed forces since 2014

but I wonder how they can trust Putin in negotiations. He is a pathological liar.

Ukraine ready to discuss adopting neutral status in Russia peace deal, Zelenskiy says

Ukraine is prepared to discuss adopting a neutral status as part of a peace deal with Russia but such a pact would have to be guaranteed by third parties and put to a referendum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in remarks aired on Sunday.

www.reuters.com

 

[MT15]

I don’t think they can trust Putin. I don’t see anything happening unless Putin is overthrown. I saw a tweet about a speech given by one of Putin’s government that was calling for the same “de-nazification” of Poland and the Balkans. If the tweet is real, anyway.

 

[UriUT]

This is an interesting thread illustrating the background of the Russian troops. They are mostly bumpkins from small towns with no social mobility. Why does this matter? Their deaths are meaningless to Putin. They are not from the Russian elite from Moscow or St Petersburg. They are surprised that a small village has asphalt and street lights. They are looting riches that they would not find back home.



And here is what Julia Ioffe said

 

[UriUT]

Remember the “courageous” Russian state tv lady?



If anyone is interested Julia Ioffe has a very good interview where she gave extensive background on Putin and even the 2016 DNC hack. Very long but it is worth the view. It is very interesting the paranoia putin had for democratic uprising surrounding him.

 

[zztop]

This is an interesting thread illustrating the background of the Russian troops. They are mostly bumpkins from small towns with no social mobility. Why does this matter? Their deaths are meaningless to Putin. They are not from the Russian elite from Moscow or St Petersburg. They are surprised that a small village has asphalt and street lights. They are looting riches that they would not find back home.

There are some who suspect that the apartment bombings in the 1990s (which killed some 300+ people) was his idea/plan. The goal to use that tragedy as a tool to catapult himself to power. He blamed it all on the Chechnya "rebels" and that lead to even more senseless death and destruction.

 

[UriUT]

There are some who suspect that the apartment bombings in the 1990s (which killed some 300+ people) was his idea/plan. The goal to use that tragedy as a tool to catapult himself to power. He blamed it all on the Chechnya "rebels" and that lead to even more senseless death and destruction.

Frontline also has a good video report on that story. It scared me the first time I saw it and changed my views completely of Putin. The Putin perception of the Bush and Obama years were disastrous.

 

[UriUT]

Remember Trump's nominee for ambassador to Germany, a country that has extreme exposure to Russia? Yeah...

 

[Taurus]

Remember Trump's nominee for ambassador to Germany, a country that has extreme exposure to Russia? Yeah...

Ye gods, from Giuliani to this guy, Trump taps just the most pathetic goombahs.

 

[UriUT]

So about those Russian soldiers? There are stories of the Russians grabbing men from the Donetsk regions and conscripting them. Here are some complaining.