Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Commander and chief...LMAO. What an ignorant boob. That she's still in Congress is a travesty.

The bigger travesty is the fact she was ELECTED to office. I know she was unopposed, but still...

 

[superchuck500]

 

[Taurus]

Is Rupert Murdoch buddies with Vlad?

 

[zztop]

alternative points of view reminds me of alternative facts

 

[MT15]

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Definitely no similarities between the way Putin and Trump operate... nope... no sir!

 

[MT15]

Definitely no similarities between the way Putin and Trump operate... nope... no sir!

Honestly the similarities are downright eerie - Putin is using the exact Trump playbook. Now which is chicken and which is egg?

 

[coldseat]

Honestly the similarities are downright eerie - Putin is using the exact Trump playbook. Now which is chicken and which is egg?

Vlad has definitely been doing that longer. He's an old pro.

 

[J-DONK]

Is Rupert Murdoch buddies with Vlad?

They've been allies for a while now. The right is really struggling with a cohesive narrative on Russia.. There is also a lot of infighting over it. Russia, and Republicans have a lot in common. Russia has clearly sided with Republicans in the past with the email leaks, and propaganda. In 2018, 8 Republican senators spent the 4th of July in Moscow.

 

[zztop]

Live updates: Zelenskyy says 9,000 leave besieged Mariupol

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russian forces are blockading Ukraine's largest cities to create a “humanitarian catastrophe” with the aim of persuading Ukrainians to cooperate with them.

apnews.com

“A huge number of shells and mines have been fired at Ukraine and a large part haven’t exploded, they remain under the rubble and pose a real threat,” Monastyrsky said. “It will take years, not months, to defuse them.”

In addition to the unexploded Russian ordnances, the Ukrainian troops also have planted land mines at bridges, airports and other key infrastructure to prevent Russians from using them.

“We won’t be able to remove the mines from all that territory, so I asked our international partners and colleagues from the European Union and the United States to prepare groups of experts to demine the areas of combat and facilities that came under shelling,” Monastyrsky told the AP.

 

[UriUT]

It’s truly sad to think that Russia could ve been a Western country. This is a great read of a conversation with the former foreign minister of Russia under yeltsin.

Kozyrev tried to alert both sides to the problem. In 1992, he delivered a cold war-style speech to the foreign ministers of the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe, in which he excoriated the west and suggested Moscow would force the former Soviet republics to join a new, Russian-dominated federation. An hour later, he returned to the floor to announce that the speech had been a stunt, intended as a wake-up call to the west. It was also a wake-up call to Kozyrev’s boss. “The message to Yeltsin was that if you listen to the [anti-democrat] opposition, that’s where you will be.
For a few years, it worked. Ultimately, however, Yeltsin began to shut Kozyrev and other reformers out, replacing the reform-minded cabinet members with hardliners, and ultimately selecting Vladimir Putin, then director of the Federal Security Service, as his successor.

 

[zztop]

maybe just a coincidence

3 cosmonauts arrive at space station in yellow and blue

A trio of Russian cosmonauts have arrived at the International Space Station wearing yellow and blue flight suits similar to the colors of the Ukrainian flag.

apnews.com

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

My gut tells me it's just coincidence but why bother even changing flight suits that quickly?

 

[SamAndreas]

This is a good thread to take a look at:

 

[SamAndreas]

My gut tells me it's just coincidence but why bother even changing flight suits that quickly?

I think it was an intentional diplomatic signal. I looked and was unable to find any previous photos of flight suits like that. I did find the basic yellow flight suit for sale on the civilian market, but they didn't have the blue parts sewn on.

So I think they whipped them out for this occasion. Bought three yellow suits, and very quickly applied the blue parts to stage this.

I'm watching to see if our astronaut on the station is going to get a ride home with the Russians after all.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I suppose they could always defect. Were they 'dropped off' or is the ship docked there?

 

[UriUT]

This is a good thread to take a look at:

I really like his analyst. He has extensive knowledge of Russian history and culture. One of his thread mentions that Russia s military isn't equipped for this war is their focus of 2 armies. There are other reasons of course but this one has been repeated by gen mark hertling. Hurtling was less specific and named that Russia s army has one that looks pretty and one that fights. Kamil makes the argument that Russia portioned some of there spending to a navy that is particularly useless in this war. Some other military analyst also mentioned this point. In the early days they mentioned that russias military strategy seems to be everyone wants to be involved. The Navy wanted some glory and sent some personnel in. The airborne etc.

 

[UriUT]

I think it was an intentional diplomatic signal. I looked and was unable to find any previous photos of flight suits like that. I did find the basic yellow flight suit for sale on the civilian market, but they didn't have the blue parts sewn on.

So I think they whipped them out for this occasion. Bought three yellow suits, and very quickly applied the blue parts to stage this.

I'm watching to see if our astronaut on the station is going to get a ride home with the Russians after all.

I agree. Itbappears intentional. When asked about the choice in color, they coyly said the color was just laying around when it was made and laughed. Strangely enough the head of their department posted a tom and Jerry video on Twitter that depicts Jerry as Ukraine and Tom as Russia beating up on Jerry while the dog (butch?) was tied up.