Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Swiping right.

 

[nolaspe]

Ah yes, deflecting to Biden, Pelosi, and Obama right on cue... Her first phrase is composed entirely of crocodile tears...

 

[brandon]

Ah yes, deflecting to Biden, Pelosi, and Obama right on cue... Her first phrase is composed entirely of crocodile tears...

Looks like @Farb has his marching orders and will finally join the thread.

 

[insidejob]

Laura Logan giving Comrade Tucker a run for his money:

What happened to her? I remember when she first started out and she was not a nut bag then.

 

[zztop]

Honestly I don’t know how much longer the world can withstand this inhumanity.

at least some good news from this atrocity:

The Kyiv Independent reported at least 130 survivors had been pulled from the wreckage, adding that the bomb shelter reportedly survived the attack. The rescue efforts were continuing.

 

[UriUT]

First time I’ve seen US intelligence estimates of Russian casualties.

That’s supposedly a very conservative number of deaths. From what I’ve been seeing, the rule of thumb is 3x deaths would be a casualty number. So conservative number is 21k out of commission from the invasion force. That is a significant number. On the low end. That explains the troop movement from the eastern military sector, the occupied Georgian area, and Syrian. They are stretched militarily. I’ve seen 75% of all Russian btg are deployed in Ukraine currently. And a significant number has been destroyed…casualty number. Insanity.

 

[DaveXA]

Yeah that was the Budapest memorandum. My memory is deteriorating bc the Minsk agreement kept popping up in my head.

Budapest Memorandum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Not that I believe him, but Poots claims Ukraine broke that agreement and references that in his speech yesterday.

 

[DaveXA]

Some comedic tidbits:

McDowell's was better.

 

[UriUT]

Not that I believe him, but Poots claims Ukraine broke that agreement and references that in his speech yesterday.

Yeah wouldn’t it be great if Ukraine actually broke the agreement and has nukes? Moscow would be burning in hell as retaliation for all those atrocities by the Russian military.

 

[zztop]

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Insidious.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

The Putin wing of the GOP should get a new spokesman:

 

[MT15]

Slight threadjack: I saw today where Old Marge was giving a speech on the floor of the House complaining about the CDC possibly recommending another Covid booster for ages over 65. She actually said “you don’t ever see the CDC recommending a 2nd or 3rd polio booster”.

No dipshirt, there are actually 4 polio vaccines given to children by the time they go to school.

Not only is she just freaking stupid, her staff is just as dumb, or she won’t listen to them.

 

[UriUT]

The Case for Ukrainian Neutrality

A deal doesn’t have to be a death sentence.

www.foreignaffairs.com

I can't agree with any of these points. It's naive and overly optimistic on Putin's intention.

 

[UriUT]

When you want to hate all Russian state TV drones, you stumble on this.

 

[nolaspe]

After the vote, the 8 gqp'ers crammed themselves into their clown car and went to cracker barrel...

The eight Republicans who voted against suspending trade relations with Russia

Far-right congresswoman claims ‘real Americans’ care more about gas prices and inflation and accused legislators of preparing to send American troops to war

www.independent.co.uk

 

[DaveXA]

The Putin wing of the GOP should get a new spokesman:

Commander and chief...LMAO. What an ignorant boob. That she's still in Congress is a travesty.

 

[UriUT]

I think it's time to catalog her as "too stupid to give a thought about" and stomp her back to obscurity.