Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[UriUT]

 

[UriUT]

And if one believe that the military will some how overthrow Putin, this thread will alleviate any misunderstanding of the Russian military. It explains why the Russian military is failing and why it will not pose any political threat to Putin.

 

[MT15]

Agree with this. I read somewhere that Russia signed an agreement at some point guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty, under Putin IIRC, and we see how much that meant to him.

 

[UriUT]

Agree with this. I read somewhere that Russia signed an agreement at some point guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty, under Putin IIRC, and we see how much that meant to him.

Yeah that was the Budapest memorandum. My memory is deteriorating bc the Minsk agreement kept popping up in my head.

Budapest Memorandum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[MT15]

Another tweet about Putin’s recent speech - sounds totally deranged.

 

[UriUT]

Another tweet about Putin’s recent speech - sounds totally deranged.

Lol. I just noticed that he is not sitting at that long table any longer. In the infowars, he clearly realized he’s been out maneuvered.

 

[UriUT]

Some comedic tidbits:

 

[brandon]

Anybody seen @Farb in this thread? Surprised he has nothing to contribute here.

Actually, I'm not surprised at all.

 

[coldseat]

Anybody seen @Farb in this thread? Surprised he has nothing to contribute here.

Actually, I'm not surprised at all.

This isn't a convenient topic for those in the right wing. That's why he confines himself and has increased his post to trans kids, CRT and racism threads. Those social issues are the most fertile discussions for the right wing and where they can most push their outrage and division.

 

[Taurus]

Another tweet about Putin’s recent speech - sounds totally deranged.

Every time Putin speaks, they have to change the sheets at Mar-A-Lago.

 

[UriUT]

Honestly I don’t know how much longer the world can withstand this inhumanity.

 

[MT15]

I’m glad Biden finally said Putin is a war criminal. I don’t like the idea of them giving him anything out of this mess.

 

[UriUT]

A Ukrainian Town Deals Russia One of the War’s Most Decisive Routs

In the two-day battle of Voznesensk, local volunteers and the military repelled the invaders, who fled leaving behind armor and dead soldiers. ‘They had no orders for what to do if they are defeated.’

www.wsj.com

Simply amazing. The Ukrainians deserve to be called defenders of the free world.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Another tweet about Putin’s recent speech - sounds totally deranged.

"Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."

* * *

"...the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

- Herman Goering

 

[nolaspe]

 

[MT15]

A Ukrainian Town Deals Russia One of the War’s Most Decisive Routs

In the two-day battle of Voznesensk, local volunteers and the military repelled the invaders, who fled leaving behind armor and dead soldiers. ‘They had no orders for what to do if they are defeated.’

www.wsj.com

Simply amazing. The Ukrainians deserve to be called defenders of the free world.

Another quote from that article:

”A Kalashnikov rifle slung over his shoulder, Voznesensk’s funeral director, Mykhailo Sokurenko, spent this Tuesday driving through fields and forests, picking up dead Russian soldiers and taking them to a freezer railway car piled with Russian bodies—the casualties of one of the most comprehensive routs President Vladimir Putin’s forces have suffered since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

A rapid Russian advance into the strategic southern town of 35,000 people, a gateway to a Ukrainian nuclear power station and pathway to attack Odessa from the back, would have showcased the Russian military’s abilities and severed Ukraine’s key communications lines.
Instead, the two-day battle of Voznesensk, details of which are only now emerging, turned decisively against the Russians. Judging from the destroyed and abandoned armor, Ukrainian forces, which comprised local volunteers and the professional military, eliminated most of a Russian battalion tactical group on March 2 and 3.”

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Laura Logan giving Comrade Tucker a run for his money:

 

[MT15]

First time I’ve seen US intelligence estimates of Russian casualties.