Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SamAndreas]

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Russia says post-1991 'illusions' about the West are over

Russia has lost any illusions about ever relying on the West and Moscow will never accept a world order dominated by the United States, which is acting like a sheriff seeking to call all the shots in a saloon bar, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Western nations have imposed sweeping...

www.yahoo.com

 

[SamAndreas]

Russia says post-1991 'illusions' about the West are over

Russia has lost any illusions about ever relying on the West and Moscow will never accept a world order dominated by the United States, which is acting like a sheriff seeking to call all the shots in a saloon bar, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Western nations have imposed sweeping...

www.yahoo.com

I guess I would call what Lavrov is doing a projection. What he's saying the US is doing is actually what Russia is doing.

Acting like an out of control sheriff.

The US isn't at this moment kicking in saloon doors around town, and then plugging all the occupants inside with his six shooter like what Russia is doing.

 

[SamAndreas]

 

[cuddlemonkey]

Russia says post-1991 'illusions' about the West are over

Russia has lost any illusions about ever relying on the West and Moscow will never accept a world order dominated by the United States, which is acting like a sheriff seeking to call all the shots in a saloon bar, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Western nations have imposed sweeping...

www.yahoo.com

Naked links are generally frowned upon here. Do you have any thoughts on this?

 

[MT15]

Naked links are generally frowned upon here. Do you have any thoughts on this?

Well, we’ve all been guilty of posting links without discussion sometimes. I would be interested in what Steve thinks of this article though.

 

[zztop]

interesting he mentions China and India. I read India just bought 3 million barrels of Russian oil

 

[UriUT]

I'll take "Let's not believe what the Russians are saying" for 600, Alex.

 

[UriUT]

Well, we’ve all been guilty of posting links without discussion sometimes. I would be interested in what Steve thinks of this article though.

Can I quote Adlai Stephenson at the UN? Please, pretty please??

 

[MT15]

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

I'll take "Let's not believe what the Russians are saying" for 600, Alex.

Taking pages right out the the American Right wing playbook: Sandy Hook, etc..

 

[MT15]

good thread from this guy:

 

[B4YOU]

Special Report: How the U.S. made its Putin problem worse

In September 2001, as the U.S. reeled from the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, Vladimir Putin supported Washington's imminent invasion of Afghanistan in ways that would have been inconceivable during the Cold War.

www.reuters.com

2014 article on Bush and Obama relations with Russia that I found informative.

 

[UriUT]

Taking pages right out the the American Right wing playbook: Sandy Hook, etc..

That's not the first I've seen right wing playbook used by the Russians. Notably, I saw lots of "cancel" thrown around.

 

[UriUT]

good thread from this guy:

At the end of that thread, he mentions that veterans will do what they can to avoid wars. I have never served, and have held a rifle once. I can tell you that after witnessing the gore of this tik tok war from afar no less, I wouldn't want any wars. Not that I didn't appreciate avoiding wars at all costs before. The images that are readily available online shadows that of hollywood shock movies. Truly tragic.

And I agree that Mark Hertling has great perspectives. He had an exchange with Adam Kinzinger on risks of escalation. He explained that NFZ or Mig transfers shouldn't be viewed as risks. Risks can be minimized he said. Rather, he views those decisions more as gambles. If anyone has played poker, it's akin to pot odds. One can determine a good bet based on a few factors. Here he explains that even if the odds that nuclear war is low, the gamble of such actions isn't necessarily a smart bet. The damage from such wars is astronomical and the reward from such actions as mig transfers is very little.

 

[superchuck500]

Seriously TFG

 

[MT15]

As I said earlier, I am grateful every day that Trump is no longer in power. Good lord.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Well, we’ve all been guilty of posting links without discussion sometimes. I would be interested in what Steve thinks of this article though.

I think that Putin and Lavrov are quite an evil duo. The lies and twisted propaganda coming out of their mouths is clear for the entire world to see.