Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[B4YOU]

I think Biden has threaded the needle well with the exception of labeling Putin a war criminal. It’s an escalation of rhetoric that accomplished nothing.

Biden often speaks from the heart. Sometimes that’s him getting ahead of the Obama admin and backing gay marriage. Other times it’s inarticulate blunders. I think his statement is somewhere between the two but not helpful to a negotiated peace.

 

[MT15]

I don’t think it hurt anything for him to say it. Psaki was immediately able to clarify that it was a statement from his heart and not a legal opinion. At the same time, I do think I read that the US and other NATO nations are gathering evidence in order to make the legal case for war crimes.

Plus, there’s pretty much zero evidence that Putin has any desire to negotiate at this point.

 

[UriUT]

Love this. Hopefully more will come.

 

[DaveXA]

Love this. Hopefully more will come.

Need to find a way to get the word to them that it's a legitimate offer. I doubt many Russian soldiers are aware of this. With the mess that is the ruble, 10k dollars is a ton of money for them.

 

[UriUT]

Need to find a way to get the word to them that it's a legitimate offer. I doubt many Russian soldiers are aware of this. With the mess that is the ruble, 10k dollars is a ton of money for them.

He elaborated further in his thread. The Ukrainians have been blasting sms to the Russian soldiers. He’s actually been advocating this “salt”. Yeah the West needs to do this. Remember that the Iraqi insurgency was quelled under Patreus using this exact method. There were videos of us troops sitting in a room with literal piles of usd handing them out to Iraqis.

 

[DaveXA]

He elaborated further in his thread. The Ukrainians have been blasting sms to the Russian soldiers. He’s actually been advocating this “salt”. Yeah the West needs to do this. Remember that the Iraqi insurgency was quelled under Patreus using this exact method. There were videos of us troops sitting in a room with literal piles of usd handing them out to Iraqis.

I wasn't aware of that. Good to know.

 

[UriUT]

I hope this is true. I have read that Kherson is a real possibility for the Ukrainians.

 

[brandon]

I hope this is true. I have read that Kherson is a real possibility for the Ukrainians.

Good news for now.

But if Putin is staring utter defeat in the face, bad things might happen.

 

[Dragon]

I think it's time to catalog her as "too stupid to give a thought about" and stomp her back to obscurity.

Why don't people boycot the sponsors of his show and write and tell them why? Money talks

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

Good news for now.

But if Putin is staring utter defeat in the face, bad things might happen.

Hopefully the bad things happen to Putin...
But its noteworthy to say, IF Putin does something bad like nuclear or chemical, its 100% Putins/Russia's fault and no one elses.. There will be plenty of "if Ukraine would just have surrendered" or "the west shouldn't have been helping Unkrain", Etc...

 

[RobF]

Good news for now.

But if Putin is staring utter defeat in the face, bad things might happen.

Speculative, but reading about Mariupol, I've been wondering if Putin/Russia have already pivoted to what they'd do if they're looking at defeat.

Because I would guess, in that situation, they might look to do as much damage as possible, destroy as much infrastructure, cause as much depopulation, in order to weaken Ukraine generally, increase the cost of rebuilding to allies, and for future intimidation (in a, "Sure, you can resist, but just look at what it'll cost you," way).

Particularly targeting the separatist regions. Harder for depopulated areas to resist in future, and perhaps counter-intuitively, I can see that it would swing those regions towards Russian influence (thinking in terms of who's more likely to stay in those regions after this).

Then get as much in the way of concessions as they can in negotiating a withdrawal.

Then having created that situation, target it with the psyops. Lots of astroturfing accusing the West/etc. of forgetting Ukraine in the rebuilding process, accusations of waste and corruption, and boatloads of gaslighting (trying to spin the whole "Russia caused all the damage in the first place" thing in a, "Look what they made us do" way), and perhaps offers of investment towards the separatist regions.

Like I said, just speculation. The devastation could just as easily still be aimed at winning, in the sense of if they can't take towns intact, they'll take the piles of rubble if that's what it takes. But as things have developed, I can't see how they could occupy even part of an actively resisting Ukraine over any significant period of time while under crippling sanctions. Maybe they don't see, or accept, that. Or maybe they'll take the sanctions and occupation of piles of rubble over anything else.

 

[UriUT]

Speculative, but reading about Mariupol, I've been wondering if Putin/Russia have already pivoted to what they'd do if they're looking at defeat.

Because I would guess, in that situation, they might look to do as much damage as possible, destroy as much infrastructure, cause as much depopulation, in order to weaken Ukraine generally, increase the cost of rebuilding to allies, and for future intimidation (in a, "Sure, you can resist, but just look at what it'll cost you," way).

Particularly targeting the separatist regions. Harder for depopulated areas to resist in future, and perhaps counter-intuitively, I can see that it would swing those regions towards Russian influence (thinking in terms of who's more likely to stay in those regions after this).

Then get as much in the way of concessions as they can in negotiating a withdrawal.

Then having created that situation, target it with the psyops. Lots of astroturfing accusing the West/etc. of forgetting Ukraine in the rebuilding process, accusations of waste and corruption, and boatloads of gaslighting (trying to spin the whole "Russia caused all the damage in the first place" thing in a, "Look what they made us do" way), and perhaps offers of investment towards the separatist regions.

Like I said, just speculation. The devastation could just as easily still be aimed at winning, in the sense of if they can't take towns intact, they'll take the piles of rubble if that's what it takes. But as things have developed, I can't see how they could occupy even part of an actively resisting Ukraine over any significant period of time while under crippling sanctions. Maybe they don't see, or accept, that. Or maybe they'll take the sanctions and occupation of piles of rubble over anything else.

Not speculative at all. They did not destroy any infrastructure early on in the campaign. Communications were left intact. Mass media was the same. It was clear that they anticipated that the Ukrainians would fold in the first few days. It cannot be coincidence that their version of the National guard, rosniagardia(sp?), were heavily from their police force. Heck there were hidden stash of riot gear and even celebratory uniforms found near Kyiv.

All of a sudden they decide to destroy infrastructure indiscriminately? Recently the manufacturing hub in Russian control areas were destroyed. Their troops were told not to destroy buildings in some comms. Ive seen many military analyst made your point. Russia is preparing to destroy Ukraine and make recovery as difficult as possible. This war is lost by the Russians and they know it. Its a matter of bleeding ukrainians as much as possible now. They didnt anticipate the response, particularly that of the West. Lavrov recent admitted that they couldn't fathom that the West would go as far as freezing the Russian central banks assets. "Thievery" he said.

 

[UriUT]

Too lazy to find the link. Reuters finally removed tass, one of russia s many propaganda outlet, from their market platform.

 

[UriUT]

More news from Ukraine's counter offensive around Kyiv.

I was wondering where richard Engel was.

 

[UriUT]

NATO: Up to 40,000 Russian Troops Killed, Wounded, Taken Prisoner or Missing in Ukraine

NATO says that up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded, taken prisoner or are missing in Ukraine, said a senior military official from the alliance. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization calculates the figure based on information provided by Ukrainian authorities and information obta

www.wsj.com

I honestly can't even digest these numbers. Not even a month into this war.

 

[MT15]

I was reading accounts that there were lots of Russian tanks and trucks just abandoned and left in the road. So, a lot of these may be soldiers who deserted. I do think the killed number that US intelligence put out was low, admittedly so.

 

[zztop]

not surprising.

US finds Russian troops have committed war crimes in Ukraine

Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the Biden administration has made a formal determination that Russian troops have committed war crimes in Ukraine.

apnews.com

also

Journalist reportedly kidnapped and tortured by Russian soldiers in Ukraine

"Nikita has given us a chilling testimony that confirms the intensity of the war crimes perpetrated by the Russian army against journalists," the group Reporters Without Borders says.

www.cbsnews.com

was held for nine days and subjected to electric shocks, beatings with an iron bar and mock execution, he told the group

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

This is yet another example of a likely poor showing for Democrats this November...

Biden approval rating drops to new low of 40%, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

U.S. President Joe Biden's public approval rating fell to a new low of 40% this week, a clear warning sign for his Democratic Party as it seeks to retain control of Congress in the Nov. 8 election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll. Biden's approval rating, down three percentage points...

news.yahoo.com