Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[efil4]

"mysterious deaths"

...is it though? lol

Suspicious deaths of notable Russians in 2022–2024 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

no its not.

Its the same guy who places his army inside tanks like these.




and sends infantry on assaults with hardly any artillery support, little recon, no real armament....

 

[MT15]

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

that'll boost moral..lol

 

[Taurus]

Mission accomplished

 

[efil4]

that'll boost moral..lol

you should see some of the "morale boosting" UAF drone videos.

Russians are getting slaughtered daily. And they just keep coming-

Used to be in squads of 30-50. Then 20. Now its squads of 5, sometimes up to 10. First hit takes out 2-5 and the rest simply run away.

 

[MT15]

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

that'll really hurt the feelings of they sympathisers in Congress. heck they may change their mind and fund Ukraine so Russia can keep their money..

 

[Optimus Prime]

Two years into the war in Ukraine, once a destination for American extremists, many within the underground far-right movement in the US are avidly disavowing it and advising followers to stay away. Extremists now see the upcoming election year as tailor-made for activism on the home front.

At the outset of the war, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued an intelligence bulletin that far-right American extremists were heading to the conflict and could use it to hone terrorist skills to bring back stateside.

After an open call for international volunteers, the Ukrainian military attracted nearly 20,000 fighters from around the world. Within weeks, there were already so-called American “Boogaloo Bois” flying out.


In a November 2023 audio message on Telegram, the ex-Marine Christopher Pohlhaus – the leader of neo-Nazi network the Blood Tribe known for its racist and homophobic protests across the US – recently told followers he was not allowing his “guys” to join in the conflict.

“I will still continue to support the struggle of the people there,” said Pohlhaus before explaining how a disagreement with his personal ally and Russian militia leader fighting for Ukraine, Denis Nikitin (whom Pohlhaus infamously pledged allegiance to over the summer), caused the group to cut ties.

“I’m not going to allow our guys, my guys’ efforts and blood to go towards [the war],” he said.

According to him, though several of his members had been “super stoked and preparing to go to Ukraine”, they would pivot all of their money and resources to focusing on domestic activism, particularly their hate rallies, seeing no benefit to fighting in the war. In the same message, Pohlhaus, who confirmed the recording to the Guardian via text message, acknowledged that he was one of the last public-facing neo-Nazi leaders in the US to support the war in Ukraine.

For its part, the DHS did not respond to multiple emails from the Guardian on whether it was continuing to track rightwing extremists traveling to Ukraine.…….

Neo-Nazis in the US no longer see backing Ukraine as a worthy cause

Like mainstream Republicans blocking military aid, American rightwing extremists are disavowing a war they once admired

www.theguardian.com

 

[brandon]

Two years into the war in Ukraine, once a destination for American extremists, many within the underground far-right movement in the US are avidly disavowing it and advising followers to stay away. Extremists now see the upcoming election year as tailor-made for activism on the home front.

At the outset of the war, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued an intelligence bulletin that far-right American extremists were heading to the conflict and could use it to hone terrorist skills to bring back stateside.

After an open call for international volunteers, the Ukrainian military attracted nearly 20,000 fighters from around the world. Within weeks, there were already so-called American “Boogaloo Bois” flying out.


In a November 2023 audio message on Telegram, the ex-Marine Christopher Pohlhaus – the leader of neo-Nazi network the Blood Tribe known for its racist and homophobic protests across the US – recently told followers he was not allowing his “guys” to join in the conflict.

“I will still continue to support the struggle of the people there,” said Pohlhaus before explaining how a disagreement with his personal ally and Russian militia leader fighting for Ukraine, Denis Nikitin (whom Pohlhaus infamously pledged allegiance to over the summer), caused the group to cut ties.

“I’m not going to allow our guys, my guys’ efforts and blood to go towards [the war],” he said.

According to him, though several of his members had been “super stoked and preparing to go to Ukraine”, they would pivot all of their money and resources to focusing on domestic activism, particularly their hate rallies, seeing no benefit to fighting in the war. In the same message, Pohlhaus, who confirmed the recording to the Guardian via text message, acknowledged that he was one of the last public-facing neo-Nazi leaders in the US to support the war in Ukraine.

For its part, the DHS did not respond to multiple emails from the Guardian on whether it was continuing to track rightwing extremists traveling to Ukraine.…….

Neo-Nazis in the US no longer see backing Ukraine as a worthy cause

Like mainstream Republicans blocking military aid, American rightwing extremists are disavowing a war they once admired

www.theguardian.com

Sure glad my political stances consistently don’t align with nazis.

 

[MT15]

you should see some of the "morale boosting" UAF drone videos.

Russians are getting slaughtered daily. And they just keep coming-

Used to be in squads of 30-50. Then 20. Now its squads of 5, sometimes up to 10. First hit takes out 2-5 and the rest simply run away.

And evidently warehouse workers are being conscripted to send to Ukraine, and some of them were upset about it enough to set their warehouse on fire. Allegedly.

 

[SaintForLife]

Sure glad my political stances consistently don’t align with nazis.

What are the vital US interests in Ukraine? I said there wasn't any and you said that was a wild take.

 

[zztop]

This whole wildberry people roundup to be sent to the front lines thing got me thinking... why aren't more of them just surrendering to Ukraine? Obviously theres quite a few who do not want to be cannon fodder... so why not just surrender once they get to the front line? (I am probably missing some key element to this simple idea)

 

[brandon]

What are the vital US interests in Ukraine? I said there wasn't any and you said that was a wild take.

The primary US interest in Ukraine is deterrence.

Why are you so consistently aligned with nazis?

 

[efil4]

This whole wildberry people roundup to be sent to the front lines thing got me thinking... why aren't more of them just surrendering to Ukraine? Obviously theres quite a few who do not want to be cannon fodder... so why not just surrender once they get to the front line? (I am probably missing some key element to this simple idea)

Some are.

But what is lost on just about all of us, is we aren't dirt poor, ( from areas with no paved roads, no indoor plumbing, avg salary of $26/mo). Nor brought up in a full authoritarian regime that controls every piece of information a citizen will digest.


So the allure of 200,000 rubles to sign up, followed by 80,000 per month, coupled with the decades of being subjected to State TV and Russkie Mir or " Mother Russia" is too much.

 

[MT15]

Some are.

But what is lost on just about all of us, is we aren't dirt poor, ( from areas with no paved roads, no indoor plumbing, avg salary of $26/mo). Nor brought up in a full authoritarian regime that controls every piece of information a citizen will digest.


So the allure of 200,000 rubles to sign up, followed by 80,000 per month, coupled with the decades of being subjected to State TV and Russkie Mir or " Mother Russia" is too much.

Not to mention they presumably have families back in Russia. The reprisals would most likely be severe.

 

[bird]

What are the vital US interests in Ukraine? I said there wasn't any and you said that was a wild take.

Using your reasoning opposing the USSR from the end of WW2 to the collapse of the USSR was not in our interest.

 

[SaintForLife]

The primary US interest in Ukraine is deterrence.

Why are you so consistently aligned with nazis?

I'm remembering why I had you on ignore for so long.

 

[MT15]

I'm remembering why I had you on ignore for so long.

Once again, care to address the deterrence answer, or just going to sling insults?