Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (3 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SaintForLife]

and i quote

That doesn't sound like a surrender plea to me...

Are you familiar with how negotiations work?

 

[efil4]

Ukraine has made little to know progress the last year, about half of the public thinks we are spending too much money on Ukraine, Ukraine is running out of troops and they are pulling people off the streets and forcing them to be cannon fodder, Zelensky is calling for peace talks.

It's over.

sigh. you simply dont read anything.

He isnt calling for "peace talks" you Russian puppet. He is calling for the formation of a "council" to discuss future peace settlement negotiations.

https://apnews.com/article/zelenskyy-davos-yermak-ukraine-switzerland-afb8bb146cd22f6a7d79fcdf177d0786

Lol "cannon fodder" - do you even know that that is?

Sending troops into battle with little to no ammunition, no armor, no artillery support. AKA Russian style of warfare.

 

[SaintForLife]

My opinion from a quick read from the link you posted, to put pressure on Russia to find a way to end the war by way of China.

Why would he want to end the war if Ukraine is winning as yall claim here?

 

[efil4]

Are you familiar with how negotiations work?

yes we all are- apparently you arent - Russia has refused any sort of talks.

see?

Moscow, which hasn’t been invited to any of the meetings, has dismissed the initiative as biased.

“For the moment, it’s illusory to think that Russia would respond positively to an invitation,” he added, “but that’s not the goal” of the Davos conference. “For now, Russia is not ready to take any step or make any concession.”

 

[efil4]

Why would he want to end the war if Ukraine is winning as yall claim here?

Ukrainian towns and cities are being LEVELED/RAZED to the ground by Russia. There are ZERO military targets. ITs Russkie Mir- if we cannot have it, no one will. Scorched Earth war policy.

But you already know this.

 

[coldseat]

Why would he want to end the war if Ukraine is winning as yall claim here?

That's a dumb question. Why wouldn't he want to end the war? It's coming at a huge cost to his people and country, all for the right to just exist peacefully as an independent country. That doesn't mean they'll agree to peace under any terms.

 

[MT15]

SFL-you’re the one who posted the article. You misrepresented what it was about, then you get mad when we try to tell you it doesn’t say what you think it says.

Since you didn’t read it - who told you the war was over and Russia won?

 

[MT15]

Ukrainian towns and cities are being LEVELED/RAZED to the ground by Russia. There are ZERO military targets. ITs Russkie Mir- if we cannot have it, no one will. Scorched Earth war policy.

But you already know this.

Yeah, that had to be one of the most amazing questions I have ever seen posted anywhere.

 

[MT15]

Wait, I’m sure Putin doesn’t mean it. He only brutally invaded Ukraine and committed war crimes because NATO made him do it.

 

[efil4]

Wait, I’m sure Putin doesn’t mean it. He only brutally invaded Ukraine and committed war crimes because NATO made him do it.

There was another one someone posted near border with Moldova. Same slogan.

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

Are you familiar with how negotiations work?

yes. peace talks don't have to mean surrender or giving up territory. if Putin can find a way to pull out of Ukraine and not be seen as being weak, he'd do it in a heart beat.. but someone with a fragile ego like Putin is not capable..

 

[SaintForLife]

Seymour Hersh:

Last November, an analysis by Michael von der Schulenburg, a retired United Nations official, Hajo Funke, a political scientist, and General Harald Kujat, the highest ranking German officer of the Bundeswehr and at NATO before his retirement, concluded that a settlement of the war was possible in March 2022, one month after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. The paper, whose findings were widely reported in Europe but not in the United States, said that the talks were sabotaged by objections from NATO as well as the Biden administration and the British government then headed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Nonetheless, secret peace talks are still ongoing between the leading generals of Russia and Ukraine, with an agreement about an exchange of prisoners on the verge of being worked out. It was the release of American prisoners of war by North Vietnam that was the key factor in ending that war. It’s not clear where the Biden administration stands on such a deal. It’s also not known whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in any way involved with the talks. At this point it seems unlikely.

THE POLITICAL COSTS OF BIDEN’S WARS

As another showdown with Trump looms, Biden’s record abroad is his biggest liability

open.substack.com

The disastrous derailment of early peace efforts to end the war in Ukraine

Michael von der Schulenburg is a former UN Assistant Secretary-General, who worked for over 34 years for the United Nations, and shortly for the OSCE, in many countries in war or internal armed conflicts often involving fragile governments and armed non-state actors
Hajo Funke is Professor Emeritus for political sciences of the Otto-Suhr-Institute/ Freie University Berlin
General (ret.) Harald Kujat was the highest ranging German officer of the Bundeswehr and at NATO

The British Prime Minister’s fateful visit to Kiev on 9 April 2022

This is a detailed reconstruction of the Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations in March 2022 and the associated mediation attempts by the then Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, supported by President Erdogan and former German Chancellor Schröder. It was drawn up by retired General H. Kujat and Professor Emeritus H. Funke, two of the initiators of the recently presented peace plan for Ukraine. And it is also in connection with their peace plan that this reconstruction is so extremely important. It reminds us that we cannot afford to delay ceasefire and peace negotiations again. The human and military situation in Ukraine deteriorates dramatically, with the added danger that it could lead to a further escalation of the war. We need a diplomatic solution to this cruel war for Europe and the Ukraine – and we need it now!

From the detailed reconstruction of the March peace efforts 6 conclusions emerge:

1. Just one month after the start of the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators had come very close to an agreement for a ceasefire and to an outline for a comprehensive peace solution to the conflict.

2) In contrast to today, President Zelensky and his government had made great efforts to negotiate peace with Russia and bring the war to a quick end.

3) Contrary to Western interpretations, Ukraine and Russia agreed at the time that the planned NATO expansion was the reason for the war. They therefore focused their peace negotiations on Ukraine’s neutrality and its renunciation of NATO membership. In return, Ukraine would have retained its territorial integrity except for Crimea.

4) There is little doubt that these peace negotiations failed due to resistance from NATO and in particular from the USA and the UK. The reasons is that such a peace agreement would have been tantamount to a defeat for NATO, an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and thus an end to the dream of a unipolar world dominated by the USA.

5. The failure of the peace negotiations in March 2022 led to dangerous intensification of the war that has cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people, especially young people, deeply traumatized a young generation and inflicted the most severe mental and physical wounds on them. Ukraine has been exposed to enormous destruction, internal displacements, and mass impoverishment. This si accompanied by a large-scale depopulation of the country. Not only Russia, but also NATO and the West bear a heavy share of the blame for this disaster.

6) Ukraine’s negotiating position today is far worse than it was in March 2022. Ukraine will now lose large parts of its territory.

7. The blocking of the peace negotiations at that time has harmed everyone: Russia and Europe – but above all the people of Ukraine, who are paying with their blood the price for the ambitions of the major powers and will probably get nothing in return.

Michael von der Schulenburg, Hajo Funke, Harald Kujat - Peace For Ukraine - Brave New Europe

The disastrous derailment of early peace efforts to end the war in Ukraine Michael von der Schulenburg is a former UN Assistant Secretary-General, who worked for over 34 years for the United Nations, and shortly [...]

braveneweurope.com

 

[MT15]

It simply amazes me how you decide that certain people are above reproach and are definitely telling the truth, and it almost always involves some sort of shadowy secret plan about something. There are red flags all over that post.

But let someone you have decided is mainstream in some way do a fact-based common sense analysis and you’re all “CIA Puppet!”.

It is just amazing.

 

[SaintForLife]

It simply amazes me how you decide that certain people are above reproach and are definitely telling the truth, and it almost always involves some sort of shadowy secret plan about something. There are red flags all over that post.

But let someone you have decided is mainstream in some way do a fact-based common sense analysis and you’re all “CIA Puppet!”.

It is just amazing.

Care to point out what the supposed red flags are?

Seymour Hersh is one of the best and most accomplished journalists of our time. I have a feeling you had a different opinion of him when he was reporting on Abu Ghraib during the Bush Presidency.

Are you going to try to discredit these people too?

-Michael von der Schulenburg is a former UN Assistant Secretary-General, who worked for over 34 years for the United Nations, and shortly for the OSCE, in many countries in war or internal armed conflicts often involving fragile governments and armed non-state actors
-Hajo Funke is Professor Emeritus for political sciences of the Otto-Suhr-Institute/ Freie University Berlin
-General (ret.) Harald Kujat was the highest ranging German officer of the Bundeswehr and at NATO

 

[MT15]

Hersh is a journalist who has recently been seen as less and less reliable. His recent writings are self-published, which means he isn’t being held to journalistic standards. His reports have relied on a single anonymous source recently and have been considered a bit off the wall. In other words, his assertions have not been able to be confirmed. This is my understanding from a Reuters article about him.

He seems to be wildly throwing crap at the wall in a bid to recapture his earlier glory. It’s sad, but it happens when people get so captivated by early success that they cannot abide a fade into obscurity.

If he is the person you are pinning everything on, you should be aware of what his current situation is.

 

[MT15]

As for your second article the people you list are NOT the sources. If you actually read the first paragraph, you will find the 2 sentences below. (bolding mine to highlight the actual sources). Yet the article puts the first name large and bold and wants you to think he is a source. That is a HUGE red flag.

“It was drawn up by retired General H. Kujat and Professor Emeritus H. Funke, two of the initiators of the recently presented peace plan for Ukraine. And it is also in connection with their peace plan that this reconstruction is so extremely important.”

It is these 2 men’s “reconstruction” of events from 2 years ago. Not confirmed by any of the others mentioned in the article.

 

[cuddlemonkey]

Care to point out what the supposed red flags are?

Seymour Hersh is one of the best and most accomplished journalists of our time. I have a feeling you had a different opinion of him when he was reporting on Abu Ghraib during the Bush Presidency.

Are you going to try to discredit these people too?

-Michael von der Schulenburg is a former UN Assistant Secretary-General, who worked for over 34 years for the United Nations, and shortly for the OSCE, in many countries in war or internal armed conflicts often involving fragile governments and armed non-state actors
-Hajo Funke is Professor Emeritus for political sciences of the Otto-Suhr-Institute/ Freie University Berlin
-General (ret.) Harald Kujat was the highest ranging German officer of the Bundeswehr and at NATO

I would, but you'll just ignore all of them anyway, so what's the point?

 

[SaintForLife]

I would, but you'll just ignore all of them anyway, so what's the point?

That's fine because I'm largely ignoring you after you insinuated I was a racist.