General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump (2 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

Today it begins, Kamala has reached the point that she's the Democratic Party nominee:

There's video from today. this link has video from her first public appearance since Biden endorsed her:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/22/live-updates-harris-democrats-biden-drops-out-trump-campaign.html

She spent yesterday on the telephone for most of the day. I read that yesterday that she called the party leaders in all 50 states. That would take me three days.

She's renamed her YouTube channel, that's the where to go for video: https://www.youtube.com/@kamalaharris

This is her video on her channel from two hours ago:



To play it, start it, and then move it up to 5:47. This was one of those live videos which don't start at zero.

I've named this thread General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump

Trump needs an introduction post as well, a MAGA suporter ought to write it: @Farb, @SaintForLife , @Others, calling for someone to please introduce your GOP candidate for this 2024 general election thread.

 

[MT15]

I don't have any hard data, but the increase in girls suicide rate has everything to do with social media.

What about social media, in your opinion, has been toxic to young women?

 

[Bayouboy]

What about social media, in your opinion, has been toxic to young women?

Girls looking at social media and feeling inadequate. Not getting enough likes. Lower self esteem. "My life is not as good as such and such". Hell, grown adults try to portray their lives as magical on social media when their own house of cards is falling around them.

I have a 20 year old daughter and it plays out with her (as an example I can touch).

I don't have receipts....just my gut feeling or opinion.

 

[SamAndreas]

I don't have any hard data, but the increase in girls suicide rate has everything to do with social media.

A good/bad point. Good that you are bringing it up, bad because it reflects off of something bad in our society.

 

[MT15]

Girls looking at social media and feeling inadequate. Not getting enough likes. Lower self esteem. "My life is not as good as such and such". Hell, grown adults try to portray their lives as magical on social media when their own house of cards is falling around them.

I have a 20 year old daughter and it plays out with her (as an example I can touch).

I don't have receipts....just my gut feeling or opinion.

Thanks, I also think that is a large part of it. Maybe the majority, idk. But these feelings have been with us at least since I was a girl. We used to get those feelings from the myriad fashion magazines and our local “mean girls”. I definitely think the internet has put this aspect forward an order of magnitude more than when I was young, though and it needs to be addressed.

But please also consider something I have observed as a woman in on-line spaces. I don’t even go into the more toxic parts of some spaces, just Twitter and TikTok and a little IG and FB. Even I have seen men call women every horrible word in existence. Openly. And they are celebrated by their troll buddies. They are dismissive of every word women speak, if they are not being what they consider submissive. And they also openly shame women’s appearances. Openly saying they are “un-fork-able”, will never get a man, look like a hag, a dog, etc. And there is an army of trolls to validate those posts as well.

Even attractive women get that treatment, if they speak up about things they believe in that don’t fit what these men want to see.

It’s not just randos, it’s accounts like that Tate guy who has millions of followers. There is a sort of subculture out there of mostly younger men who are expressing a lot of hate targeting women. It’s been going on for a while now. I remember Oye outlining it - a gradation that starts with Peterson and Shapiro (not saying they are in on it) and ends up in right-wing hate, even fascism. The algorithms push young men down this path.

Anyway - the open hate from men is what is different than when I was a girl. FWIW that’s my perspective. And we shouldn’t be surprised when the hate ends up also harming the young men expressing it, that is to be expected. So for Donk, the two are related. Intertwined. We have to talk about both, you cannot fix one without the other.

 

[Bayouboy]

Thanks, I also think that is a large part of it. Maybe the majority, idk. But these feelings have been with us at least since I was a girl. We used to get those feelings from the myriad fashion magazines and our local “mean girls”. I definitely think the internet has put this aspect forward an order of magnitude more than when I was young, though and it needs to be addressed.

But please also consider something I have observed as a woman in on-line spaces. I don’t even go into the more toxic parts of some spaces, just Twitter and TikTok and a little IG and FB. Even I have seen men call women every horrible word in existence. Openly. And they are celebrated by their troll buddies. They are dismissive of every word women speak, if they are not being what they consider submissive. And they also openly shame women’s appearances. Openly saying they are “un-fork-able”, will never get a man, look like a hag, a dog, etc. And there is an army of trolls to validate those posts as well.

Even attractive women get that treatment, if they speak up about things they believe in that don’t fit what these men want to see.

It’s not just randos, it’s accounts like that Tate guy who has millions of followers. There is a sort of subculture out there of mostly younger men who are expressing a lot of hate targeting women. It’s been going on for a while now. I remember Oye outlining it - a gradation that starts with Peterson and Shapiro (not saying they are in on it) and ends up in right-wing hate, even fascism. The algorithms push young men down this path.

Anyway - the open hate from men is what is different than when I was a girl. FWIW that’s my perspective. And we shouldn’t be surprised when the hate ends up also harming the young men expressing it, that is to be expected. So for Donk, the two are related. Intertwined. We have to talk about both, you cannot fix one without the other.

I've seen what you reference here.....especially on Twitter. Actually, this sort of bullying is part of "social media" as a whole. So this behavior falls under the broad category of social media. Further "proof" that social media has to be playing a big part in the uptick of suicides among girls.

 

[SamAndreas]

There is a reason Trump is targeting white men, sure. He doesn’t have any other demographic he can count on. ABC polling that just came out shows this. It has Harris up 4 nationally, similar to Biden in 2020. Trump has lost a measure of support he had in 2020 from nearly every demographic, with the exception of young voters. I have seen other polls indicating that between 10-15% of registered Rs plan to vote for Harris. If it’s even 7-8% there’s no way Trump wins, and Harris wins comfortably.

The young voters crosstab decrease for Harris compared to Biden could be partly Palestine, could be partly the malaise Donk talks about among young men. But the majority of that age group still goes for Harris.

I don’t see Trump winning, tbh. (I admit to feeling concerned from time to time, PTSD from 2016 I suppose).

What you have highlighted now needs to have the error calculated for the sub groups in question. The overall error for the top line number might be plus or minus 3%. For the difference between the candidates top line numbers doubling that 3% to 6% for comparison. What i'm calling a comparison is where simple subtraction is done to the numbers. Saying how much one candidate is leading the other by is a subtraction of one top line number from the other to view the difference. That error typically is about 6 points for the average polls.

To discuss the error in subgroupings found in the poll the error is calculated from the size of the subgroup in the population being looked at. For this I will turn to Pew Research.

How does the margin of error apply to subgroups?

"Generally, the reported margin of error for a poll applies to estimates that use the whole sample (e.g., all adults, all registered voters or all likely voters who were surveyed). But polls often report on subgroups, such as young people, white men or Hispanics. Because survey estimates on subgroups of the population have fewer cases, their margins of error are larger – in some cases much larger."

"A simple random sample of 1,067 cases has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for estimates of overall support for individual candidates. For a subgroup such as Hispanics, who make up about 15% of the U.S. adult population, the sample size would be about 160 cases if represented proportionately. This would mean a margin of error of plus or minus 8 percentage points for individual candidates and a margin of error of plus or minus 16 percentage points for the difference between two candidates. In practice, some demographic subgroups such as minorities and young people are less likely to respond to surveys and need to be “weighted up,” meaning that estimates for these groups often rely on even smaller sample sizes. Some polling organizations, including Pew Research Center, report margins of error for subgroups or make them available upon request."

I haven't gathered the data to calculate the error in a black men subgroup typified by this discussion. From experience in working with this type of statical math I'm going to guess that subgroup is too small a part of the larger poll to even bother with reporting that subgroup data. Old time polling houses didn't even report subgroup data from subgroups which were too small to be meaningful.

I'm going to guess instead that the margin of error for subgroups like black men or black women would be in the realm of 30% for the individual candidate, and 60% for the margin of error for the difference between two candidates.

A basic evaluation is that error is too much to bother with, throw it out. Assuming one doesn't have data is better than going forward with what the polling report might mindlessly generate numbers for, without saying what the margin of error is for those low line numbers.

5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls

Some of the better-known statistical rules of thumb that a smart consumer might think apply in polls are more nuanced than they seem. In other words, as is so often the case in life, it’s complicated.

www.pewresearch.org

 

[SamAndreas]

I agree with J-Donk here.

And if you look at the Trump campaign, that's exactly who they are targeting. Trump can care less about widening his appeal to make gains....he's doubling down on his core. Trump wants every white man in the country to get off the couch and vote for him.

In your first sentence you said you agree with J-Donk. In your second sentence it appear to me you are disagreeing with J-Donk's assessment. The opposite of what J-donk has been saying.

J-Donk appears to me to be arguing that the Criminal has widened his appeal to include a significant number of Black men.

I agree with you I think the Criminal is doubling down on his core.

I don't think there is usable data on black men at this time because their number amoung the whole population is too small for a cheesy newsmaker poll with N equal to about a 1,000 to produce.

A case of garbage in, garbage out.

 

[Bayouboy]

The amount of African American support that he's getting is absolutely mind boggling. When he wins the Presidency, he will largely be able to thank black men for his victory. I can understand some folks being hesitant to "put a woman in charge", but to flip to the alternative that is almost openly racist??? Make it make sense.

In your first sentence you said you agree with J-Donk. In your second sentence it appear to me you are disagreeing with J-Donk's assessment. The opposite of what J-donk has been saying.

J-Donk appears to me to be arguing that the Criminal has widened his appeal to include a significant number of Black men.

I agree with you I think the Criminal is doubling down on his core.

I don't think there is usable data on black men at this time because their number amoung the whole population is too small for a cheesy newsmaker poll with N equal to about a 1,000 to produce.

A case of garbage in, garbage out.

As you can see in my post from yesterday, Trump is seeing a significant uptick in the African American vote compared to last election. He's not necessarily targeting them with ads or anything......they are coming over at their free will. I gotta assume some of it is that Harris is a woman, but it's a trend that honestly doesn't make a whole lotta sense.

I'll admit, Trump is masterclass at all of this. The McDonald's gimmick is paying off in spades. He definitely knows how to play an audience. How else can a convicted felon with so much baggage and high ranking members of his own cabinet coming out against him a week before the election be rising in the polls? Make it make sense.

 

[fooferdoggie]

why is it that when I see republican-constitution on the ballet I know its just the opposite now? one guy I looked up he went on about voting fraud. Another MAGA.

 

[efil4]

As you can see in my post from yesterday, Trump is seeing a significant uptick in the African American vote compared to last election. He's not necessarily targeting them with ads or anything......they are coming over at their free will. I gotta assume some of it is that Harris is a woman, but it's a trend that honestly doesn't make a whole lotta sense.

I'll admit, Trump is masterclass at all of this. The McDonald's gimmick is paying off in spades. He definitely knows how to play an audience. How else can a convicted felon with so much baggage and high ranking members of his own cabinet coming out against him a week before the election be rising in the polls? Make it make sense.

Stop looking at the polls. Stop thinking he is attracting any more than his core support.

He isn't.

What you see and hear is his supporters shouting over and drowning out any sort of opposition. That's how they operate

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

There was no "situation room" because 1. The US was NOT involved in the operation and 2. Nor were they given a definitive operation time

So you can make up whatever explanation you want.

But when you are wrong, you are REALLY WRONG.

And when it comes to information, you are wrong more than right. And apparently ok with that because you keep coming back to show all of us just how little you research.

I would think that when our ally Israel was bombing military sites in Tehran Iraq....I would think-hope that the President had his chief of staff and also his most trusted military advisor at his side. Ya know...just in case. It was worthy of monitoring, even if from the Oval Office rather than the Situation Room.

 

[efil4]

I would think that when our ally Israel was bombing military sites in Tehran Iraq....I would think-hope that the President had his chief of staff and also his most trusted military advisor at his side. Ya know...just in case. It was worthy of monitoring, even if from the Oval Office rather than the Situation Room.

So NOW its "his chief of staff and also his most trusted military advisor"??

And how do you know President Biden DIDNT HAVE him/his CoS and SEC of Defense monitoring?

Which btw has NOTHING to do with VP Harris.

Nothing.

Keep trying.

 

[J-DONK]

I would think that when our ally Israel was bombing military sites in Tehran Iraq....I would think-hope that the President had his chief of staff and also his most trusted military advisor at his side. Ya know...just in case. It was worthy of monitoring, even if from the Oval Office rather than the Situation Room.

There are like 3-4 assumptions and fallacies in this statement.

The only time I know of everyone crowding in a room to watch a military operation was the Bin Laden raid.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

So NOW its "his chief of staff and also his most trusted military advisor"??

And how do you know President Biden DIDNT HAVE him/his CoS and SEC of Defense monitoring?

Which btw has NOTHING to do with VP Harris.

Nothing.

Keep trying.

IF Trump had won in 2020 and if Haley had been his VP, in this very hypothetical musings of mine, I believe Haley ( hypothetically running for President) would have chosen to remain in the White House. Kamala hopes to be the next President but at a potentially dangerous moment it was more important to her to be on a Texas stage with Beyonce.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

There are like 3-4 assumptions and fallacies in this statement.

The only time I know of everyone crowding in a room to watch a military operation was the Bin Laden raid.

I never suggested "everybody" should "crowd" into a room. 4 people can very comfortably be inside the Oval Office. Pres., VP, Chief of Staff, Military Advisor.

 

[Bayouboy]

Stop looking at the polls. Stop thinking he is attracting any more than his core support.

He isn't.

What you see and hear is his supporters shouting over and drowning out any sort of opposition. That's how they operate

While I do not consider polling to be 100% accurate, it is a tool we use to gauge things. In fact, after Biden plummeted in the polls after his debate performance, the Dems pivoted to Harris......so they are not totally irrelevant. That being said, Trump is way up in African American support compared to 2020 in most major polls. I think he's almost at 20%. That's pretty substantial considering who Trump is as a candidate.

 

[MT15]

While I do not consider polling to be 100% accurate, it is a tool we use to gauge things. In fact, after Biden plummeted in the polls after his debate performance, the Dems pivoted to Harris......so they are not totally irrelevant. That being said, Trump is way up in African American support compared to 2020 in most major polls. I think he's almost at 20%. That's pretty substantial considering who Trump is as a candidate.

I don’t believe for a minute that Trump will capture 20% of the African American vote. The polling I have seen is less than 10%.

 

[MT15]

Powerful ad.