General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump (11 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

Today it begins, Kamala has reached the point that she's the Democratic Party nominee:

There's video from today. this link has video from her first public appearance since Biden endorsed her:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/22/live-updates-harris-democrats-biden-drops-out-trump-campaign.html

She spent yesterday on the telephone for most of the day. I read that yesterday that she called the party leaders in all 50 states. That would take me three days.

She's renamed her YouTube channel, that's the where to go for video: https://www.youtube.com/@kamalaharris

This is her video on her channel from two hours ago:



To play it, start it, and then move it up to 5:47. This was one of those live videos which don't start at zero.

I've named this thread General Election 2024 Harris vs Trump

Trump needs an introduction post as well, a MAGA suporter ought to write it: @Farb, @SaintForLife , @Others, calling for someone to please introduce your GOP candidate for this 2024 general election thread.

 

[LA - L.A.]

I agree with J-Donk here.

And if you look at the Trump campaign, that's exactly who they are targeting. Trump can care less about widening his appeal to make gains....he's doubling down on his core. Trump wants every white man in the country to get off the couch and vote for him.

Trump is also targeting women. All that means is Trump is targeting young men. It doesn't mean anywhere close to the majority of them believe the shirt Trump says or that he will vote for him.

Young people, including young men, is a group that polls historically are inaccurate with. Candidates don't chase polls as much as news outlets, pundits and the general public. It's one of many tools that candidates use, but it's not their most important.

 

[Bayouboy]

If Harris wins the election, I think women will be her MVP. All votes and demographics matter, but the female vote will put her over the top. I just hope it happens. I'm just fearful it will not.

 

[LA - L.A.]

As you can see in my post from yesterday, Trump is seeing a significant uptick in the African American vote compared to last election.

Trump is seeing a modest polling uptick in the percentage of African American men compared to the last election. African American men are a small percentage of voters, so that percentage uptick Trump is seeing is not really enough to change the outcome in any state, even if the polls are accurate which is highly questionable based on recent polling history.

Harris is seeing a substantial uptick in polling of white women, which is one of the largest voting groups. If that polling uptick bears out in the actual voting, the white women switching to Harris vastly outnumber the black men switching to Trump.

The McDonald's gimmick is paying off in spades.

Trump's McDonald's gimmick is only paying off within his cult. Outside of his cult, Trump's getting ridiculed for it.

He definitely knows how to play an audience. How else can a convicted felon with so much baggage and high ranking members of his own cabinet coming out against him a week before the election be rising in the polls?

Because Trump's rise in the polls is intentional fraud. A whole bunch of new garbage polls were created to fake their numbers in Trump's favor knowing that this would fraudulently change the average of polling in Trump's favor. Trump rising in the polls is a intentional deception. Everyone who disregards those propaganda disinformation polls, shows Harris rising and Trump limping, with Harris having much better chances to win the election than Trump.

Don't believe everything you read without cross checking it across several sources who all have a history of being credible. The major news outlets mostly rely on average of polls that include the garbage polls. Trump rising in the polls is a sham, just like everything else involving Trump.

 

[LA - L.A.]

Trump didn't win.
Haley isn't VP.

Everything after that is pure speculation by one person, you. Who has repeatedly voiced his stance here regarding your political views and affiliation.

So it doesn't surprise me in the least that you would post something as absurd as the above.

And I'm sure you will post something in the future that will surpass the absurdity above.

I just wanted to add that the very same Haley, being portrayed as honorable and filled with integrity, endorsed Trump and is supporting Trump's campaign. Honorable people who have integrity don't endorse or support Trump.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

The Bald Eagle knows a threat when it sees one, so do our Generals!!!

 

[LA - L.A.]

Yeah, Steve, there actually is. Haley has zero integrity. She has endorsed Trump. That’s disqualifying. She should never be in a position of public trust ever again.

On one hand, he says he doesn't respect Harris because of her decision. On the other, he says he respects Haley and she would be a better VP. He says this knowing full well that Haley decided to endorse, support and vote for Trump.

 

[LA - L.A.]

If Harris wins the election, I think women will be her MVP. All votes and demographics matter, but the female vote will put her over the top. I just hope it happens. I'm just fearful it will not.

Early voting data in the swing states says it's already happening. At this point, early voting data is the most reliable indicator of how the election will turn out.

 

[Bayouboy]

Because Trump's rise in the polls is intentional fraud. A whole bunch of new garbage polls were created to fake their numbers in Trump's favor knowing that this would fraudulently change the average of polling in Trump's favor. Trump rising in the polls is a intentional deception. Everyone who disregards those propaganda disinformation polls, shows Harris rising and Trump limping, with Harris having much better chances to win the election than Trump.

Don't believe everything you read without cross checking it across several sources who all have a history of being credible. The major news outlets mostly rely on average of polls that include the garbage polls. Trump rising in the polls is a sham, just like everything else involving Trump.

Left leaning media (PBS, Atlantic, Robert Reich, others) concede Trump his moving up in the polls. This is not right wing media making it up. Now, you can say polls are not accurate (and that historically has been the case many times), but legitimate national polls have a slight surge to the Trump campaign 9 days prior to the election. That's scary to me, because a lot of people do not pay attention to politics until a week or so before the election.

I'm as anti-Trump as you can get, but I'm forking scared as hell he will get re-elected. Too close for my comfort considering the candidate Trump is......

 

[J-DONK]

I don’t believe for a minute that Trump will capture 20% of the African American vote. The polling I have seen is less than 10%.

This is how I think about the race from a very high level.

According to polling the electorate changes :

1. Trump has added support from minoirty young men.

2. Kamala has added support from pretty much every demographic of women.

That's the big changes. This raises a bunch of questions. Trump usually over performed his polling, but that was at least in part becaue of his voting base consistenty at the polls. That should change this cycle.

Republicans know about the change in thier base to a less frequent voter, and embraced early/mail in voting.

This brings up a bunch of questions:

1. Is polling really still -3% points to Trump?
2. Why is there still +D gap in early voting in blue wall states?

 

[SamAndreas]

Seems to be an official sign if you read the small print.

I doubt it's real. If one is printing a sign, they have to print the fine print along with the sign. They can make it say what they want it to say.

I looked and a used UV printer one would need to print a sign like that at home can be bought for under $500.

I also looked at emblems and symbols associated with the criminal, and found none which were at all like that one.

 

[MT15]

Unlike Obama campaigning for Harris, I do not see any clips of Haley campaigning for Trump.

Well, she has offered to, Trump hasn’t asked her to. She’s shameless.

 

[MT15]

This is not right wing media making it up.

Nobody said it was. What I think it is are the right wing polling outfits cooking their polls. Some of that - I am reading that GOP-aligned pollsters are dropping about 2x as many polls late in the election than independent or Dem-leaning. They’re flooding the zone with Trump favorable polls, IMO, so that when he loses he can start the “dems cheated, look at the polls, there’s no way I lost”.

Some of it is also “herding”. Pollsters all massage their data and nobody wants to be an outlier. If they get it wrong they don’t want to be the only one. So, when we see a bunch of Trump friendly polls and it moves the averages, regular pollsters start adjusting to come closer to the mean.

This happened on a smaller scale in 2022 - the “red wave” that didn’t happen was because there were a bunch of GOP pollsters all released near the end. They might also want to discourage Dems and fire up their own base, idk.

 

[MT15]

Trump’s rally at MSG living up to the worst predictions. He’s not even trying to appeal to regular people.

 

[Eeyore]

Meanwhile, at the Madison Square Garden Nazi Rally...



"There's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it's called Puerto Rico."

"And these Latinos, they love making babies too. Just know that. They do. They do. There's no pulling out. They don't do that. They come inside. Just like they did to our country."

Joked about carving watermelons with his black friend for Halloween.

 

[MT15]

This is something I hope every swing voter sees.

 

[SamAndreas]

Nobody said it was. What I think it is are the right wing polling outfits cooking their polls. Some of that - I am reading that GOP-aligned pollsters are dropping about 2x as many polls late in the election than independent or Dem-leaning. They’re flooding the zone with Trump favorable polls, IMO, so that when he loses he can start the “dems cheated, look at the polls, there’s no way I lost”.

Some of it is also “herding”. Pollsters all massage their data and nobody wants to be an outlier. If they get it wrong they don’t want to be the only one. So, when we see a bunch of Trump friendly polls and it moves the averages, regular pollsters start adjusting to come closer to the mean.

This happened on a smaller scale in 2022 - the “red wave” that didn’t happen was because there were a bunch of GOP pollsters all released near the end. They might also want to discourage Dems and fire up their own base, idk.

When there is herding three points need to be established, 1) Which polling outfit, and or outfits, are the sheepdogs, 2) which poling outfits are the sheep, 3) which outfits are not involved.

In this election I'm sirprizerized to report that two outfits appear to be the sheepdogs, and what is surprising to me is that the New York Times appears to be one of the sheepdogs, and the other, no surprize, is FoxNews.

*** I'm pleased to report that "sirprizerized" is not a misspelled word. Spell check told me that. I don't quite understand how it is about championship quarter horse studs, but that's what it is about. That seemed in keeping with medphoric intent so I kept the word in place of "surprised," which I had misspelled while typing.

It's in keeping because quarter horses are bred for being larger sheepdogs for use in herding.

It was boney fingers.

 

[cuddlemonkey]

Meanwhile, at the Madison Square Garden Nazi Rally...



"There's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it's called Puerto Rico."

"And these Latinos, they love making babies too. Just know that. They do. They do. There's no pulling out. They don't do that. They come inside. Just like they did to our country."

Joked about carving watermelons with his black friend for Halloween.

This is a guy that was so racist his agents dropped him and Joe Rogan distanced himself from him.

 

[SamAndreas]

I'm just saying google MAGA Nazi Rally