General Election 2024 Biden vs Trump (1 Viewer)

[SteveSBrickNJ]

As we head toward the summer and the National Party Conventions, it might be handy to have a thread focused on the upcoming matchup of current President Biden vs Former President Trump.
As of April 28,2024 , CNN's poll shows Trump leading. Yet polls are not always accurate and they are constantly changing.
Feel free to use this thread for all things relating to Biden vs Trump.
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CNN Poll: Trump maintains lead over Biden in 2024 matchup as views on their presidencies diverge

Donald Trump continues to hold an advantage over President Joe Biden as the campaign – and Trump’s criminal trial – move forward, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. And in the coming rematch, opinions about the first term of each man vying for a second four years in the White House...

www.yahoo.com

 

[SaintForLife]

They will be Trumps death knell and SFL knows this

All the polls disagree with you.

 

[LA - L.A.]

They will be Trumps death knell and SFL knows this

If Biden does drop out and if Harris replaces Biden and if Harris beats Trump, how sweet would it be that Trump lost to a woman? Trump go full on apoplectic and probably have an actual stroke if that happened.

Everyone, please careful attention to the fact that I used the word "if."

 

[LA - L.A.]

All the polls disagree with you.

The same polls that have significantly underestimated the votes of women in favor of Republicans by 5% to 20% for every election since Roe was overturned by Trump's Supreme Court justices back in 2022.

 

[MT15]

All the polls disagree with you.

This is objectively false.

 

[MT15]

Guys, I just read a fascinating theory about why Trump repeatedly brings up Hannibal Lecter in every single rally and even in his speech at the convention. He ties it to migrants being released from mental institutions in SA and sent here, despite exactly zero evidence of that happening. Zero.

The current thought on Twitter from a few people is that someone once (possibly recently) explained US asylum laws to him, and he either doesn’t know there are 2 meanings of the word, or his brain has misfired. He thinks asylum means the migrants are from insane asylums.

I have been wondering how he ever came up with the Hannibal Lecter bit, and why he persists so much with it when he knows people are making fun of him. This at least makes a bit of sense.

He’s too stupid to be in charge of anything.

 

[J-DONK]

This big spat on polling, here is some on if Biden drops out in some key swing states:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2024/07/18/so-you-wanted-some-harris-polling-00169524

In a general election that also includes third-party candidates, Trump is leading Biden by one point in Michigan (45 percent to 44 percent) and four points in Pennsylvania (46 percent to 42 percent). Interestingly, Harris replacing Biden atop the ticket makes the Democrats’ chances worse in Michigan, with Trump leading her by five points (46 percent to 41 percent), and better in Pennsylvania, where she cuts Trump’s lead in half (45 percent to 43 percent percent).

But if Harris were to pick one of those state’s governors as her running mate, her chances would improve considerably.

In Michigan, Harris with Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER as her vice presidential nominee are dead even with Trump and Vance, tied at 46 percent according to the poll.

And in Pennsylvania, a hypothetical ticket with Harris running alongside Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO would run one point ahead of Trump and Vance.

 

[MT15]

I stopped reading afte this sentence:

“Public Policy Polling has long been a prolific firm in Democratic politics — it has only a 1.4-star rating out of 3 in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings — but given the intense debate around Biden’s embattled candidacy, it’s the existence of the polling that’s more important than its accuracy.”

 

[J-DONK]

I stopped reading afte this sentence:

“Public Policy Polling has long been a prolific firm in Democratic politics — it has only a 1.4-star rating out of 3 in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings — but given the intense debate around Biden’s embattled candidacy, it’s the existence of the polling that’s more important than its accuracy.”

It gives some insight on who to have as a VP pick.

Also, 538 post Nate Silver is apparently trash. He tore into thier current model.

 

[MT15]

It gives some insight on who to have as a VP pick.

Also, 538 post Nate Silver is apparently trash. He tore into thier current model.

Nate Silver…who works for a website that is mostly funded by Peter Thiel and taking bets on all election related things? That Nate Silver?

There is something going on with a whole bunch of tech bros, one of whom persuaded Trump to change his policy on crypto in one (1) meeting. Flipped him like a pancake.

 

[J-DONK]

Nate Silver…who works for a website that is mostly funded by Peter Thiel and taking bets on all election related things? That Nate Silver?

There is something going on with a whole bunch of tech bros, one of whom persuaded Trump to change his policy on crypto in one (1) meeting. Flipped him like a pancake.

People always attack the person when they can't debate their ideas.

Who you work for isn't a strong indication of political afflication.

Either you forgot, or never knew who Fox News employees give the most money too:

Democrats took more cash from Fox PAC than Republicans since 2018

“No one who wants to take money from Fox News or Rupert Murdoch should consider themselves a Democrat,” critic says.

www.salon.com

 

[MT15]

People always attack the person when they can't debate their ideas.

Who you work for isn't a strong indication of political afflication.

Either you forgot, or never knew who Fox News employees give the most money too:

Democrats took more cash from Fox PAC than Republicans since 2018

“No one who wants to take money from Fox News or Rupert Murdoch should consider themselves a Democrat,” critic says.

www.salon.com

You don’t think there’s a potential conflict of interest with Nate Silver working for a website that handicaps and takes bets on elections and then publicly evaluating polls and polling firms?

Really?

 

[J-DONK]

You don’t think there’s a potential conflict of interest with Nate Silver working for a website that handicaps and takes bets on elections and then publicly evaluating polls and polling firms?

Really?

Finish this thought. How does Nate Silver benefit from disingenuously evaluting polls? Keep going.

My guess is Nate's affliation begins, and ends at stuff like this:



It's essentially advertising prop betting.

 

[MT15]

Finish this thought. How does Nate Silver benefit from disengiouisly evaluting polls? Keep going.

it’s a gambling site. How do they make money? They keep the race close in the betting. They want there to be about the same number of people who bet both sides. He would have millions of dollars and his cushy job that pays him a half a million a year riding on not screwing this up. He is trying to get Biden to drop out and has been for a while now. Why would he do that?

A new candidate would probably generate a lot more interest and more betting. And just agitating for chaos on the Democrat side makes it closer anyway.

But there is also another angle. People have been noticing Silver becoming more partisan, more conservative. Jobs are different when you get that kind of money, IMO. They want your soul. You wouldn’t be allowed to differ ideologically in any significant way from leadership. It’s part of the package. His direct boss is in the picture above with Don Jr in Madison. And his boss’s boss is Peter Thiel.

 

[MT15]

It's essentially advertising prop betting.

Which would be a conflict of interest for him to evaluate polls and comment on polling would it not?

 

[J-DONK]

it’s a gambling site. How do they make money? They keep the race close in the betting.

You are getting betting sites confused with media coverage. My understanding of betting sites going back to college is they use the spread to keep the betting amounts even.
They don't try to influnece the actual events, nor the discussion around them. It's why betting odds are often times used as a "No BS" way of actually determining the odds of something.

 

[MT15]

Trump is speaking today in Michigan and has repeated his lie that he was awarded “Michigan Man of the Year” before he became a politician. This is a symptom of his disordered mind. He’s been told, it’s been fact-checked, yet he continues to say it.

You are getting betting sites confused with media coverage. My understanding of betting sites going back to college is they use the spread to keep the betting amounts even.
They don't try to influnece the actual events, nor the discussion around them. It's why betting odds are often times used as a "No BS" way of actually determining the odds of something.

It wouldn’t be the first time someone uses media coverage to put their thumb on the scale, though. Nate Silver is very much out in the political arena and publicly trying to influence things he is taking bets on. It stinks ethically.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Nate Silver…who works for a website that is mostly funded by Peter Thiel and taking bets on all election related things? That Nate Silver?

There is something going on with a whole bunch of tech bros, one of whom persuaded Trump to change his policy on crypto in one (1) meeting. Flipped him like a pancake.

Nate Silver is the only reason 538 has/had any relevance.

 

[Saint Jack]

The things you have to tell yourself to deal with the reality of Trump having a huge lead in the battleground states.

Are you saying the majority of the country is a cult.

What about the people who told us and keep telling us that Biden is fine mentally despite everyone else knowing that was complete BS for at least 3 years? Sounds like a cult.

Do you think abortion is a bigger issue that the economy, inflation, the border and Ukraine?

Yeah. Trump supporters are a cult and they are heavily underestimating just how hated Donald is outside his base.