First presidential debate (1 Viewer)

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    Optimus Prime

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    Since we usually have a separate thread for these
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    NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden begins an intense period of private preparations Friday at Camp David for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

    The 81-year-old Democrat’s team is aware that he cannot afford an underwhelming performance when he faces Republican rival Donald Trump for 90 minutes on live television Thursday night. Biden’s team is expecting aggressive attacks on his physical and mental strength, his record on the economy and immigration and even his family.

    Trump, 78 and ever confident, will stay on the campaign trail before going to his Florida estate next week for two days of private meetings as part of an informal prep process.

    The former president’s allies are pushing him to stay focused on his governing plans, but they’re expecting him to be tested by pointed questions about his unrelenting focus on election fraud, his role in the erosion of abortion rights and his unprecedented legal baggage.

    Thursday’s debate on CNN will be full of firsts, with the potential to reshape the presidential race. Never before in the modern era have two presumptive nominees met on the debate stage so early in the general election season. Never before have two White House contenders faced off at such advanced ages, with widespread questions about their readiness.

    And never before has a general election debate participant been saddled with a felony conviction. The debate-stage meeting comes just two weeks before Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial.

    “You can argue this will be the most important debate, at least in my lifetime,” said Democratic strategist Jim Messina, 54, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

    PRESSURE ON BIDEN


    The ground rules for Thursday’s debate, the first of two scheduled meetings, are unusual.

    The candidates agreed to meet at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or prewritten notes will be allowed onstage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.

    There will be no opening statements. A coin flip determined that Biden would stand at the podium to the viewer’s right, while Trump would deliver the final closing statement.


    The next debate won’t be until September. Any stumbles Thursday will be hard to erase or replace quickly.………..

     
    Thank god it's just a poll that tells us what people might be thinking only at the time they were polled.

    Thank god it's not any reliable indicator of what the future election might bring.

    Thank god the election is 4 months away which means the typical American will change their minds about a dozen times during that time span.

    Biden was +9 at this point in the race in 2020. I do not understand individuals on this board going with the "polls don't matter".
     
    Oops! My bad on the quoting mishap. I think for some reason I merged their comment with yours and thought that was the original. It’s rough sometimes trying to quote / multi quote on my phone. Maybe I’ll leave the quoting for when I’m at my desktop.
    Good idea that using the desktop. I can't use my phone to post. My thumb is about the size of the whole screen on my phone.

    And my diminishing eyesight, I have hell using that phone for anything other than making and receiving calls.
     
    That's not really what happened. I say this as a "Bernie Bro". Bernie never had a majority of the vote. He also never made any inroad with the black vote in the south. It killed his candidacy every time.

    There was some orchestration behind the scenes to go with Biden once he finally started winning primaries. That was simply an effort to stop fracturing the much larger centrist vote.

    If there was a mistake in all of this, it's that Biden should have ran in 2016 and challenged HRC.

    I don't have any sour grapes over how a competitive primary process plays out. I simply want competitive primaries. I hope that is one of the major takeaways from this mess.
    What I mean is that it was no secret that establishment Democrats had basically decided that Clinton was gonna be the nominee. That was always pretty obvious. That doesn't mean the voting was illegitimate or anything, but it was pretty obvious at the time where that was headed.
     
    I get that, but I don't think Obama's loyalty goes as far as supporting and endorsing Biden if he thinks Biden is unfit or doesn't have a good chance of beating Trump.
    At this late a stage, I actually can see him doing that because switching horses this late in the game is pretty much unprecedented and there's a ton of risks. Unless Biden is literally at death's door, I don't see Obama not supporting him.
     
    Biden was +9 at this point in the race in 2020. I do not understand individuals on this board going with the "polls don't matter".
    I've never said "polls don't matter."

    What I keep saying is the historical fact that the polls have not been reliable predictors of actual election outcomes, especially since 2022.

    That historical fact is not going to stop being a historical fact.

    Also, -3 is within the margin of error. What that means is that if they same poll was run several times during the same time period, Biden would polled ahead of Trump.

    I've still never said "polls don't matter." They are not forecasts and have never been designed to be forecasts. You keep quoting them like they show Biden will lose. That's not true.
     
    I've never said "polls don't matter."

    What I keep saying is the historical fact that the polls have not been reliable predictors of actual election outcomes, especially since 2022.

    That historical fact is not going to stop being a historical fact.

    Also, -3 is within the margin of error. What that means is that if they same poll was run several times during the same time period, Biden would polled ahead of Trump.

    I've still never said "polls don't matter." They are not forecasts and have never been designed to be forecasts. You keep quoting them like they show Biden will lose. That's not true.
    I will say this much tho, as unreliable as they are, they're far closer than they should be. I'll never understand why Biden doesn't have a double digit lead at this point.
     

    Try reading that carefully SFL. Whoever wrote that dreamed that conversation out of thin air.

    It falls apart if read carefully. The first part of it conflicts with its second part, and the author is entangled in the middle of that like a spider caught in its own web.

    There was no member of the House Democratic Party caucus talking to that author. That author on Twitter should be ignored.
     
    I will say this much tho, as unreliable as they are, they're far closer than they should be. I'll never understand why Biden doesn't have a double digit lead at this point.
    The last round of voting, the polls underestimated almost all Democratic candidates by 5% when going against a Republican candidate. It was as high as 20% in some cases.

    If the election were held right now, it's just as probable that Biden would win by anywhere from 1% to 17%, as it's probable that he would lose.

    If the push to replace Biden fades out amongst Democratic leadership, I think it will be because internal Democratic polling shows Biden doing better than public polling.
     
    Try reading that carefully SFL. Whoever wrote that dreamed that conversation out of thin air.

    It falls apart if read carefully. The first part of it conflicts with its second part, and the author is entangled in the middle of that like a spider caught in its own web.

    There was no member of the House Democratic Party caucus talking to that author. That author on Twitter should be ignored.

    The source was Axios.

     
    At this late a stage, I actually can see him doing that because switching horses this late in the game is pretty much unprecedented and there's a ton of risks. Unless Biden is literally at death's door, I don't see Obama not supporting him.
    Dave the two of them together reside on the side of my refrigerator. A refrigerator magnate thing. I see them sitting there together there everyday.

    They are sitting in a long row of folding chairs in two chairs which are very close to each other. They are both big grinning and laughing. The body language is such that they fit together. They have a strong bond for being together.

    I got it here and on the back is a handwritten message from Obama. I'll type it in and quote it.

    "Joe Biden is my brother - no one knows America like he does. the man doesn't have an ounce of quit in him. And when it comes to delivering a better future for our children and grandchildren, I know he's the man for the Job."-- B. Obama
     
    TBH, I think if there was a good second choice he would.

    Emerson came out today with a Trump vs Biden, and vs the field. It's not good for anyone except Trump.

    Biden -3
    Harris -6
    Newsom -8
    Whitmer -10


    What are your thoughts seeing the rest of the field trailing Biden, since you strongly advocate for making a candidate change?

    I recognize the fallibility of polling but I can’t deny that it’s unnerving seeing Trump lead.

    While so much attention is on Biden, my bigger concern is how bad the Democratic Party often is at messaging and connecting their platform with people.
     
    What are your thoughts seeing the rest of the field trailing Biden, since you strongly advocate for making a candidate change?

    My guess, we are mainly seeing name recognition. I'm basing that off of the order of polling. It makes sense Whitmer would be last with the least exposure. It is, and will always be a gamble to swap.

    I recognize the fallibility of polling but I can’t deny that it’s unnerving seeing Trump lead.

    While so much attention is on Biden, my bigger concern is how bad the Democratic Party often is at messaging and connecting their platform with people.

    Right now, that's on Biden. He can't communicate effectively.
     
    My guess is we are mainly seeing name recognition. I'm basing that off of the order of polling. It makes sense Whitmer would be last with the last exposure. It is, and will always be a gamble to swap.

    This is why I said in another post that if there’s a change, I think the party has to go with somebody with a solid national profile. And I’m not sure what a viable list of those candidates would look like.

    Right now, that's on Biden. He can't communicate effectively.

    That’s part of it, but I think it’s a persistent and systemic problem.

    The overturning of Roe is a huge assist to Democractic candidates but I think the party continues to struggle with the economic “dining table” issues, even though they have ideas while Republicans really don’t.
     
    This is why I said in another post that if there’s a change, I think the party has to go with somebody with a solid national profile. And I’m not sure what a viable list of those candidates would look like.



    That’s part of it, but I think it’s a persistent and systemic problem.

    The overturning of Roe is a huge assist to Democractic candidates but I think the party continues to struggle with the economic “dining table” issues, even though they have ideas while Republicans really don’t.

    I don't think it's really a messaging problem, I think it's a media problem.

    First, most Americans are tragically uninformed when it comes to how politics and policies are affecting their lives. Second, half of US media (right wing news) produces purposeful propogande and misinformation peddling for support of the GOP. Even if you aren't plugged into those sources of media, it filters into social media where there is a lot of propaganda exposure for the average American. Third, the balance of the media of focused more on horse race and click bait news for profit motive and don't do a serious job of informing voters with accurate and in depth, comprehensive coverage and how government policy is actually effecting their lives. It's also not clear that voters would listen if they did.
     

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