First presidential debate (2 Viewers)

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    Optimus Prime

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    Since we usually have a separate thread for these
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    NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden begins an intense period of private preparations Friday at Camp David for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

    The 81-year-old Democrat’s team is aware that he cannot afford an underwhelming performance when he faces Republican rival Donald Trump for 90 minutes on live television Thursday night. Biden’s team is expecting aggressive attacks on his physical and mental strength, his record on the economy and immigration and even his family.

    Trump, 78 and ever confident, will stay on the campaign trail before going to his Florida estate next week for two days of private meetings as part of an informal prep process.

    The former president’s allies are pushing him to stay focused on his governing plans, but they’re expecting him to be tested by pointed questions about his unrelenting focus on election fraud, his role in the erosion of abortion rights and his unprecedented legal baggage.

    Thursday’s debate on CNN will be full of firsts, with the potential to reshape the presidential race. Never before in the modern era have two presumptive nominees met on the debate stage so early in the general election season. Never before have two White House contenders faced off at such advanced ages, with widespread questions about their readiness.

    And never before has a general election debate participant been saddled with a felony conviction. The debate-stage meeting comes just two weeks before Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial.

    “You can argue this will be the most important debate, at least in my lifetime,” said Democratic strategist Jim Messina, 54, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

    PRESSURE ON BIDEN


    The ground rules for Thursday’s debate, the first of two scheduled meetings, are unusual.

    The candidates agreed to meet at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or prewritten notes will be allowed onstage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.

    There will be no opening statements. A coin flip determined that Biden would stand at the podium to the viewer’s right, while Trump would deliver the final closing statement.


    The next debate won’t be until September. Any stumbles Thursday will be hard to erase or replace quickly.………..

     
    Don't sweat anything LA. Your post was enjoyable for me to answer. Why I've only been able to tell this story one other time on this board. I don't remember where, or when.

    There have been other boards as well. Other times. It's one of my old stories. I was 13 I think when the Watergate hearings on TV happened.

    The year before that in the fall I drove a JD 4020 with a five bottom, plowing, plowed about a whole square mile myself. Did it with my cousin, together we plowed about two square miles. He was a year older, he would lead and I would follow.

    Two tractors, two 5 bottom plows, in perfect formation, with two kids under 14 driving, driving for 14 days. We were real good at doing that.

    There was nothing wrong with that. I would follow him about 45 feet behind, and over two weeks I bet that interval of space between our tractors didn't vary by more than about 5 feet.

    We were like Air Force pilots flying in formation. That stuff was fun.

    Farm kids got to get out of school in the fall to help their dads. That's not a bad thing either, that's a good thing. I earned a lot doing that instead of being in school.

    I also enjoy typing.
    First time I'm reading it. Interesting stuff.
     
    It's over. It's inevitable. We are just waiting for Biden to realize it.
    *
    I think I should have backed my statement up more.
    The Democratic Party leaning NBC NEWS organization has a story that does that.
    (Yahoo News reposted it)
    *
     
    Last edited:
    The polls are not broken.
    So you believe what the cross tabs are showing in these polls? That the Democratic base has collapsed for Biden and they are turning to Trump? That women in general are changing from Biden to Trump? Even black women?

    If the cross tabs look like that, how can we take these polls seriously? Even if you believe the overall numbers because you think they seem right, if the data that goes into the overall number looks like complete garbage, that calls the overall data into serious doubt right?

    What’s the first thing they teach about data? GIGO, right? Do they still teach that?
     
    So you believe what the cross tabs are showing in these polls? That the Democratic base has collapsed for Biden and they are turning to Trump? That women in general are changing from Biden to Trump? Even black women?

    If the cross tabs look like that, how can we take these polls seriously? Even if you believe the overall numbers because you think they seem right, if the data that goes into the overall number looks like complete garbage, that calls the overall data into serious doubt right?

    What’s the first thing they teach about data? GIGO, right? Do they still teach that?
    I get your points, but I don't think that's how the polls are meant to be used. Extrapolating then into electoral college results isn't what they're meant to do. And a given poll not being accurate or not using a good methodology doesn't invalidate the value of polls in general.
     
    Speaking only for myself, it's not an issue of whether or not their opinions have merit. It's an issue of their opinions not having any more merit or importance than anyone else's just because they're well known celebrities.
    That’s a nice saying, but some people are more informed and intelligent, so not everyone’s opinion carries the same weight. I won’t say all, but many of the people pictured are people that have credibility in my eyes. Besides, that still doesn’t justify the generalization that is implied. I find that type of generalization demeaning and unproductive. It would be equally demeaning and unproductive if I posted a picture of all black men and implied their stances are somehow of less value. If those men were talking about something culturally specific, and they understand that culture better, I might listen, but if someone just posts all their pics and opinions about something as generic as the topic of Biden remaining, then their race and gender shouldn’t diminish their message, unless they spin their race and gender into the message, at which point they start losing me.
     
    An interesting discussion over perceived Democratic complacency and how we got here vs what we do now:

     
    I get your points, but I don't think that's how the polls are meant to be used. Extrapolating then into electoral college results isn't what they're meant to do. And a given poll not being accurate or not using a good methodology doesn't invalidate the value of polls in general.
    No I don’t think you understand what I am saying. I never said extrapolate them. When the data used to get the numbers looks like women (including black women) are abandoning Biden and turning into Trump voters in significant numbers - that should call the entire data set into question. Should it not? Aside from polls, is there any real evidence that women are suddenly backing Trump? This would be a monumental shift in the electorate like has rarely been seen before. It means that women who voted for Biden in 2020, after Roe, after Jan 6, suddenly say - I like Trump and what he is doing.

    And I posted somewhere an explanation of “herding” in polls. Which is well studied and a known propensity for pollsters to adjust their data - which they already do anyway - if their polls seem to deviate too much from previously published polls. Nobody wants to be the outlier - there is safety in numbers, right?

    We have seen polls get it wrong repeatedly since 2021, when you see election results, in a way that would have been unheard of in polling’s heyday. I’m not saying all polls are broken, but what I am saying is that the aggregators are throwing in polls that probably shouldn’t be in their averages.

    Part of my skill set when I was working was being able to look at data and correlate to real life conditions. I had to know when data looked suspicious. In the medical realm, it mattered a lot if a lab result was in error, and sometimes our analyzers put out bad numbers. It was something that a supervisor had to develop a feel for, and know what to do to investigate the numbers. In fact, when I trained new employees, I emphasized this - anybody can load an analyzer with samples and report the numbers it spits out. We pay people to spot trends that something is going south before bad results get reported.

    I don’t know enough about polling to know what they are doing wrong, but everything I am seeing, and I am reading from people online who see the same, is flashing red warning signs. Do not believe these numbers.
     
    An interesting morning, on the Google News topic "News about Biden, Democrats" it has been eclipsed by the new and exciting topic of the Republican Convention.

    News about Biden is now at third. Was first, then second, now third. But this isn't baseball. There's no home to run to, for this one.

    There were only two new stories added this morning, so far, both were added 5 hours ago, neither worth a click. AOL and Politico are both third rate sources.
     
    Two tractors, two 5 bottom plows, in perfect formation, with two kids under 14 driving, driving for 14 days. We were real good at doing that.
    Not to turn this into a Four Yorkshiremen bit, but I was bushhogging, plowing, combining and bailing hay by the age of 10. I was always driving solo, though. Driving in formation would have killed some of the monotony of it. I do still miss it sometimes.

    Glad the context of my first post was understood.

    Farm kids got to get out of school in the fall to help their dads.
    I never go to do that.
     
    I can't speak to women, minorities or other people for that matter.

    But I do have a former President of the Association of Graduates from the Air Force Academy to give me insight into what our brave men and women think.

    My dad graduated in '69 from the Academy and retired as a Lt Col, having served in Vietnam and as a Squadron Commander of K-135s out of Seymor Johnson AFB in North Carolina.

    He is still very much in touch with people at every level of the Air Force including the GA.

    My dad voted for President Obama twice, Ron Johnson in '16 (despises Hillary) and voted for Biden last time. He hates Trump more than I do and that is saying a lot. He openly wishes death upon him.

    He isn't sure he can vote for Joe Biden again.

    He is very worried about how many people are focusing on winning the election when those in the military are worried about who is going to command them.

    The military brass hate Trump. A lot. They would never say anything disparaging about a CiC publicly however. He isn't going to get more votes from them.

    But the rank and file he does much better with, as Republicans typically do.

    Biden won the military popular vote in 2020. He needs to perform well here again.

    Quoting my dad here "Saying you shut it down at 8 each day doesn't instill confidence. Tyranny doesn't sleep"

    Telling the military men and women that these concerns don't matter and they should just shut up and vote can be a problem with a group you don't typically win in the first place.

    It looks like the dust has settled and he is going to stay in the race. History will tell us if this was when we defeat tyranny and enter a new era or was the final nail in democracy and the free world's coffin. I have very little hope the American people will make the right decision.
     
    I have very little hope the American people will make the right decision.
    This saddens me. I have great faith in the American people. They may wake up slowly to what is happening, which I think partially explains 2016, but they won’t make the same mistake twice.

    And that 8PM quote isn’t from Biden. It was an anonymous source. When he was asked about it, he said he didn’t say that. And if you look at his schedule, he hasn’t been stopping events at 8 PM either.

    Media did a lot of damage to Biden in the past 2 weeks. Well, and their anonymous sources. Pundits piled on too. I don’t think the public has been moved by them.
     


    Looking more and more like an attempted coup by a few democrats backed by nolabel

    Thanks for posting that, because I don't do social media. Last night something started to occur to me and the above combined with the below drove it home for me:


    If Biden and Harris win the election and Biden can't serve his full term, Kamala Harris becomes president. That's an objective fact.

    Not speaking of anyone on this board.

    Most of the people pushing for Biden to step out, due to concerns he couldn't finish his term, said that they wanted Harris to replace him. Most of them also said they were confident Harris would win. When you think about it, that doesn't make sense. If Harris would win, then surely Biden Harris would also win. Anyone that would vote for Harris is also going to vote for Biden Harris, because they know that if Biden has to step down, Harris becomes president. I think that most of the people who would vote for Harris, think it's a given that Biden wouldn't be able to finish his term and would vote Biden Harris with the expectation that Harris would become president at some point during Biden's term.

    The people who pushed for Biden to step out, because he is "too and old and frail to finish his term," also claimed they want Harris to replace Biden, because they're confident Harris would win. If they are being sincere about all of that, then it makes no sense for them to want to push Biden out. If they are right that Harris would win, then that means Biden Harris would also win.

    Something to take note of, it wasn't until recently that the loudest and pushiest people who want Biden forced out, never mentioned Harris as a possible replacement until recently. Their go to list of possible replacements either didn't include Harris or had her at the bottom of the list. It's only recently, as their attempts to force Biden out intensified, that they started talking about Harris being the heir apparent replacement. It's also noteworthy, that none of them committed their full support to Harris as the replacement if Biden stepped down. They just started talking about her more and that she was the one that made the most sense.

    I think the reason that the Black and Hispanic Congressional Caucus leaders publicly stood and stand behind Biden, is because they're comfortable with giving Biden a chance and they want Harris to succeed him if he can't finish his term. I think they realize that the best way to make sure it's either Biden or Harris as president is to support Biden Harris. I think they believe, based on what they know from behind the scenes, that if Biden gets pushed out, so will Harris. I think black, hispanic/latino, women, young, LGBTQIA+ and voters from other marginalized groups want Biden to stay in the race. I think they believe Biden Harris is the only guarantee that Harris isn't swept aside.

    The tweet Dragon posted and the CNN article above supports the possibility that the push to get Biden out was mostly a push to get Harris out and/or to sabotage the Democrats chances of winning the presidency.
     
    Everyone keeps trying to make this election like 2020. Incumbent with low approval rating. Pandemic. Two impeachments. George Floyd protests and he invaded my city with Blackwater mercenaries. Lost by like 70k votes across 5 states.

    It feels a lot more like 2016 to me. Not incumbent and nobody's seems to care about his record at all. No excitement for the Dem candidate and Trump saying wild shirt that nobody cares about or will have any repercussions for. Trump won by like 40k votes across 5 states. Because of apathy.

    I hope I am wrong

    But i am not planning on selling $300k of stock to buy Antiguan citizenship for my family because i think i am wrong either
     
    Smerconish is a pretty objective guy.
    That's not been my experience of Smerconish at all and I've watched a lot of hours of him. My obervation is that he's highly subjective and biased, but does a pretty good song and dance to hide it. That's just my opinion.

    This is why those of us who want Biden to drop feel the way we do.
    How confident are you that Harris would win and why do you have that level of confidence?

    What they decide in the last few weeks is all that really matters.
    This as has been historically proven to be the case. That's why it's not wise to overreact to anything that's happening right now.
     
    That's not been my experience of Smerconish at all and I've watched a lot of hours of him. My obervation is that he's highly subjective and biased, but does a pretty good song and dance to hide it. That's just my opinion.


    How confident are you that Harris would win and why do you have that level of confidence?


    This as has been historically proven to be the case. That's why it's not wise to overreact to anything that's happening right now.


    I’m not very confident Harris or anyone else would win. I think anyone but Biden would have a non 0 chance though.


    It’s not “right now”. The debate wasn’t the beginning of this.
     

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