First presidential debate (3 Viewers)

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    Optimus Prime

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    Since we usually have a separate thread for these
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    NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden begins an intense period of private preparations Friday at Camp David for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

    The 81-year-old Democrat’s team is aware that he cannot afford an underwhelming performance when he faces Republican rival Donald Trump for 90 minutes on live television Thursday night. Biden’s team is expecting aggressive attacks on his physical and mental strength, his record on the economy and immigration and even his family.

    Trump, 78 and ever confident, will stay on the campaign trail before going to his Florida estate next week for two days of private meetings as part of an informal prep process.

    The former president’s allies are pushing him to stay focused on his governing plans, but they’re expecting him to be tested by pointed questions about his unrelenting focus on election fraud, his role in the erosion of abortion rights and his unprecedented legal baggage.

    Thursday’s debate on CNN will be full of firsts, with the potential to reshape the presidential race. Never before in the modern era have two presumptive nominees met on the debate stage so early in the general election season. Never before have two White House contenders faced off at such advanced ages, with widespread questions about their readiness.

    And never before has a general election debate participant been saddled with a felony conviction. The debate-stage meeting comes just two weeks before Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial.

    “You can argue this will be the most important debate, at least in my lifetime,” said Democratic strategist Jim Messina, 54, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

    PRESSURE ON BIDEN


    The ground rules for Thursday’s debate, the first of two scheduled meetings, are unusual.

    The candidates agreed to meet at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or prewritten notes will be allowed onstage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.

    There will be no opening statements. A coin flip determined that Biden would stand at the podium to the viewer’s right, while Trump would deliver the final closing statement.


    The next debate won’t be until September. Any stumbles Thursday will be hard to erase or replace quickly.………..

     
    I agree with a lot of what you say. It's somewhat disconcerting to me how certain posters here seem so sure they are right about their position - on one side, "changing candidates at this point is a guaranteed loss," on the other, "Biden is guaranteed to lose." I'm voting the D ticket, whoever that ends up being no matter what. All I want is the best shot at defeating Trump, or at least minimizing GOP gains in the House and Senate - but I don't know what the best path is.

    But my lean is... we need a change. Any change is risky, yes, but "staying the course" seems even riskier. I don't take much comfort in Dr. Lichtman's "keys," because there are at least a dozen factors in this race that have no precedent. If you want the incumbency key, then it's simply a matter of Biden resigning the Presidency, Harris becomes President, and the party somehow rallies behind her as the candidate. Boom, you have the incumbency key, but you probably aren't going to feel great about that because it's an unprecedented situation.

    45% of people are going to vote for Biden even if he's in hospice come election day, and 45% of people are going to vote for Trump even if he's caught on video killing a puppy. The 45% who would vote Biden no matter what - wouldn't they vote for Harris if she was the top of the ticket? The question is how to get as many as you can of the other 10%, which will include many who genuinely would love to vote against Trump - they just need an alternative that is palatable enough for them.

    I share your concerns about potential prejudices against a Black woman, but if (just guessing here) 75% of Americans think Biden won't make it through a second term, isn't a Biden campaign also going to be about whether people are good with Harris being President? If so, maybe we should embrace it. We at least know that SHE is capable of debating Trump and effectively arguing her case. I'm convinced Biden's not capable of doing it anymore. If the data is indicating Biden is heading toward a loss, give Harris a shot. I'd rather go down with that than what I saw in the last debate.
    This is me exactly.
     
    I agree with a lot of what you say. It's somewhat disconcerting to me how certain posters here seem so sure they are right about their position - on one side, "changing candidates at this point is a guaranteed loss," on the other, "Biden is guaranteed to lose." I'm voting the D ticket, whoever that ends up being no matter what. All I want is the best shot at defeating Trump, or at least minimizing GOP gains in the House and Senate - but I don't know what the best path is.

    But my lean is... we need a change. Any change is risky, yes, but "staying the course" seems even riskier. I don't take much comfort in Dr. Lichtman's "keys," because there are at least a dozen factors in this race that have no precedent. If you want the incumbency key, then it's simply a matter of Biden resigning the Presidency, Harris becomes President, and the party somehow rallies behind her as the candidate. Boom, you have the incumbency key, but you probably aren't going to feel great about that because it's an unprecedented situation.

    45% of people are going to vote for Biden even if he's in hospice come election day, and 45% of people are going to vote for Trump even if he's caught on video killing a puppy. The 45% who would vote Biden no matter what - wouldn't they vote for Harris if she was the top of the ticket? The question is how to get as many as you can of the other 10%, which will include many who genuinely would love to vote against Trump - they just need an alternative that is palatable enough for them.

    I share your concerns about potential prejudices against a Black woman, but if (just guessing here) 75% of Americans think Biden won't make it through a second term, isn't a Biden campaign also going to be about whether people are good with Harris being President? If so, maybe we should embrace it. We at least know that SHE is capable of debating Trump and effectively arguing her case. I'm convinced Biden's not capable of doing it anymore. If the data is indicating Biden is heading toward a loss, give Harris a shot. I'd rather go down with that than what I saw in the last debate.
    You make a lot of sense. Can you talk me out of my sense of impending doom next?
     
    I'm not sure this was posted. Obama didn't endorse Clooney's letter, but he didn't discourage it either.


    Politico reports that before the Hollywood actor (and major Democratic donor) published his New York Times op-ed calling for Biden to step down, he “reached out to former president Barack Obama to give him a heads-up.” As Politico, which spoke to people familiar with the conversation, notes: “While Obama did not encourage or advise Clooney to say what he said, he also didn’t object to it.” The outlet adds that “the lack of pushback is an eye-popping revelation given that the former president was one of the first big voices defending Biden following his abysmal debate performance (while many of his former aides have been some of the incumbent’s biggest critics).”
     
    I'm not sure this was posted. Obama didn't endorse Clooney's letter, but he didn't discourage it either.

    The swell was dying off until the Clooney letter and now it's hotter than ever.. my guess here is that Obama did not want to directly advise Clooney to write it but that he also viewed the letter as.. a need or necessity maybe (?).. given the current state of everything.
     
    45% of people are going to vote for Biden even if he's in hospice come election day, and 45% of people are going to vote for Trump even if he's caught on video killing a puppy.
    This part I don’t see happening, tbh. I think Trump’s “lead” in the polls is smoke and mirrors. I don’t think he has broadened his appeal at all, his attempts to garner black and Latino votes seem clownish, and I think he will not be able to back away from abortion or his fascistic Project 2025. He talks like a maniac, nobody but the 20-30% of the cult are voting for him, IMO. (Of course I can’t be sure).

    The economy is going well, we avoided a recession, jobs are fantastic, the stock market is good, prices are retreating, border crossings are way down and manufacturing jobs are coming back. Biden has quietly done some really good things for the middle/poorer classes - drug prices for seniors, airlines have to refund now, expanded Affordable Care Act, etc.

    I sure hope you’re right about people being excited to vote for Harris. I mean I would be, but we’ve been burned in this situation before by the rest of the country.
     
    The swell was dying off until the Clooney letter and now it's hotter than ever.. my guess here is that Obama did not want to directly advise Clooney to write it but that he also viewed the letter as.. a need or necessity maybe (?).. given the current state of everything.

    There is going to be at least one amazing book that will come out of this mess if not more then one.

    There are couple of super interesting things I observed so far.

    Most of the Obama sphere is against Biden running despite Obama's public support.

    Pelosi is clearly saying "It's time to give it up Joe." without actually saying it publicly.

    The entire progressive block was advised by someone to stay out of this. This is a fight between the major party brokers. They have all loudly, and publicly supported Biden.
     
    The economy is going well, we avoided a recession, jobs are fantastic, the stock market is good, prices are retreating, border crossings are way down and manufacturing jobs are coming back. Biden has quietly done some really good things for the middle/poorer classes - drug prices for seniors, airlines have to refund now, expanded Affordable Care Act, etc.
    I don't disagree, but a big problem is that most Americans think the economy is terrible:

    Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.

    The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
    • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.
    • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
    • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
    Many Americans put the blame on Biden for the state of the economy, with 58% of those polled saying the economy is worsening due to mismanagement from the presidential administration.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden
    Fewer than a quarter of Americans (23%) currently rate the country’s economic conditions as excellent or good, while 36% say they are poor and about four-in-ten (41%) view conditions as “only fair.”
     
    I don't disagree, but a big problem is that most Americans think the economy is terrible:


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden

    And I can sum it up: shirt is expensive. It affects everyone but hits those at the bottom much more severely and reality is that there are many more people at or near the bottom than there are people at or near the top.
     
    Okay. I’ve seen reports that consumer confidence is increasing steadily.

    Unless I'm looking in the wrong place, I don't really see a lot within here that makes me believe it's going to balance out over the next few months.
     

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