First presidential debate (2 Viewers)

[Optimus Prime]

Since we usually have a separate thread for these
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NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden begins an intense period of private preparations Friday at Camp David for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

The 81-year-old Democrat’s team is aware that he cannot afford an underwhelming performance when he faces Republican rival Donald Trump for 90 minutes on live television Thursday night. Biden’s team is expecting aggressive attacks on his physical and mental strength, his record on the economy and immigration and even his family.

Trump, 78 and ever confident, will stay on the campaign trail before going to his Florida estate next week for two days of private meetings as part of an informal prep process.

The former president’s allies are pushing him to stay focused on his governing plans, but they’re expecting him to be tested by pointed questions about his unrelenting focus on election fraud, his role in the erosion of abortion rights and his unprecedented legal baggage.

Thursday’s debate on CNN will be full of firsts, with the potential to reshape the presidential race. Never before in the modern era have two presumptive nominees met on the debate stage so early in the general election season. Never before have two White House contenders faced off at such advanced ages, with widespread questions about their readiness.

And never before has a general election debate participant been saddled with a felony conviction. The debate-stage meeting comes just two weeks before Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial.

“You can argue this will be the most important debate, at least in my lifetime,” said Democratic strategist Jim Messina, 54, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

PRESSURE ON BIDEN


The ground rules for Thursday’s debate, the first of two scheduled meetings, are unusual.

The candidates agreed to meet at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or prewritten notes will be allowed onstage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.

There will be no opening statements. A coin flip determined that Biden would stand at the podium to the viewer’s right, while Trump would deliver the final closing statement.


The next debate won’t be until September. Any stumbles Thursday will be hard to erase or replace quickly.………..

How Biden and Trump are taking very different approaches to preparing for next week's debate

President Joe Biden is beginning an intense period of private debate preparations at Camp David. His trip comes as officials in both parties scramble to set expectations for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

apnews.com

 

[LA - L.A.]

I hadn’t really thought of it that way, but I suspect you are correct here.

I read about it a long time ago somewhere. The same thing happens within cults, because cults are fascist in nature. A lot of times it's emotional abuse, because that's just as effective and easier to get away with.

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[LA - L.A.]

Glad to see them start pushing back on reporters. She used some serious Socratic Aikido on the reporter. Don't know if it will do much good with the Fox audience, but that will do a lot of good with the other networks.

 

[SamAndreas]

There isn't a single incident that I know of in American history, since the advent of telecommunications, that the party that had a contested convention won the election.

Correct me if I'm wrong anyone.

It amazes me how many people will say "those who forget history or doomed to repeat it" on the one hand and then on the other hand "a contested convention and new candidates will pump up the excitement and give a bump to the party" on the other hand. It's irrational thinking. It's wishcasting at the highest level.

"Correct me if I'm wrong anyone." Caused a chuckle to arise this early in the morning, it will be a good busy day. You're not wrong. I'm going to take this where you left it and expand upon it.

There are two points of history which are factors which did interrelate, have come back upon almost exactly 100 years apart. A real good example of history repeating itself Starts with a panepicidimic, followed by a resurgence of the far right.

Back them this infected both Democrats and Republicans. That time it was very much based upon the church, with a racist focus, and both political parties came together whereas church affiliation came during that period.

This time it's less about religion, more focused amoung Republicans.

A hundred years ago folks had a mask debate with tears in their eyes. Australia had forced their population to immunize, and that did not work at all, they didn't know what a virus was. They had formulated it to deal with the secondary bacterial results of what the virus.

In the, and this the part which is almost exactly 100 years ago the KKK took over parts of America. I grew up in Colorado and Colorado was one of the places they took over. Watch this, the Colorado Experience:



Watch that and you will learn about the Criminal they had from a 100 years ago who tried to overthrow the established way through strong arm tactics and force. There are differences, lots of differences, and there are breathtaking similarities.

Another thing to take away from this, once it happened, it didn't happen. I grew up there and never heard a peep about it having happened other than a minor blip in school about how the Klan had become popular back then in parts of the US, not a peep that it happened there, and that well,,, some of my kin folk were involved.

That wasn't passed down, I found out about it in that video. One of those Colorado state legislature members from the kkk colorado congress was my great great uncle. The elders were ashamed, after the fact, and it just wasn't talked about, not in my family, not by anyone else's family as far as I can determine.

 

[Incumbent]

I've heard several make this argument, and I think it is possible, but I think Trump is hard to match. They will have a hard time finding someone that garners the same cultish following. It may take another generation, which may give us enough time to put in protections against another such person, which the founders didn't envision could go unchecked. It will take a long time to undue the damage that the Supreme Court has done, but that starts with a decade of democratic rule to rebalance the power of the presidency and strengthen democracy. If we come through this, and enact legislation to prevent another existential threat to democracy from being able to succeed, then we may become a stronger nation.

It’s certainly possible and I like the optimism of that, but looking around the country, there is a growing number of christofascist politicians. What they might lack in Trump’s headscratching allure, they make up for with skill and ability. And it’s possible that the allure of Trump is really just the unbridled contempt and rage-peddling. If so, that is extremely easy to replicate and we’re already seeing that. Texas state politics is a prime example.

 

[Lapaz]

It’s certainly possible and I like the optimism of that, but looking around the country, there is a growing number of christofascist politicians. What they might lack in Trump’s headscratching allure, they make up for with skill and ability. And it’s possible that the allure of Trump is really just the unbridled contempt and rage-peddling. If so, that is extremely easy to replicate and we’re already seeing that. Texas state politics is a prime example.

If you're right, then the next election doesn't matter, because we're either we're doomed now with Trump or soon thereafter with another. If I'm right, then there is hope that a few election wins can improve our democracy.

 

[Incumbent]

If you're right, then the next election doesn't matter, because we're either we're doomed now with Trump or soon thereafter with another. If I'm right, then there is hope that a few election wins can improve our democracy.

No, it means every election matters.

 

[Lapaz]

I share those concerns and I also wish Biden had chosen to be a one-term president. There are a number of things I wish had gone differently, including; Clinton had won in 2016, one of the younger candidates got the nomination in 2020. People looking for who to blame now, don’t overlook the big steps that got us here.

All the public spectacle feels like taking a wrecking ball to whatever chances we have. I do have to remind myself that there is a lot more going on than we see. Maybe Biden isn’t giving a private audience to people he should? Or maybe the behind the scenes interactions aren’t raising alarm?

I’d like to buy into the excitement of a contested convention but I absolutely don’t see that happening. If it happens, and it elevates the ticket with voters, I will be elated and relieved to be wrong. One fear I have is if we go the contested route and Harris doesn’t emerge as the nominee, we will do insurmountable harm within the base, and I’m not at all convinced she’d be our strongest candidate.

I, for one, am currently not advocating a contested election, yet. I'm advocating that Biden agree to end his run, and endorse Harris, and then having a mini-primary online election with ranked choice to select a VP. I'm now convinced that Harris should nominate the VP candidates. The VP can be chosen via a contested convention, but I would prefer a vote, with emphasis on the purple states. I said yet, because if Biden has a few more bad incidents, and refuses to step aside, that may force the contested election. The situation is unique, so there will some day be a winner from a contested election, and it could be this one, if it is deemed necessary to have the contested election.

By the way, I would love all VPs to be selected in a similar manner in the future. Some countries elect both, without the president getting a say. I wouldn't go that far. I think the presidential nominee should narrow the list down to 3 to 5 candidates, and then hold an election. Then the nation would support both candidates, which is an improvement over the current system for the 2nd in line for the presidency.

 

[Incumbent]

Not to lose sight of the stark contrasts between the candidates, one of them is still capable of sounding presidential and the other one is Donald Trump.

A mashup of their remarks from speaking engagements yesterday.

 

[Bayouboy]

We need to understand how and why it’s this close. Why the choice between the two isn’t an obvious one for so many.

Watch the video above, then ask yourself how is this race even close?

 

[Heathen]

I agree with a lot of this and wrestle with the same ideas.

I don’t know the answers other than we rarely have the pieces in place all at the same time to ever fully effect sweeping positive changes. It’s why I’m so opposed to any efforts to suppress enthusiasm for Democrats, even when those candidates are far from what I’d prefer. I do understand the argument that looks at that differently.

Right, and I can understand your view especially in light of a crucial election. His health situation or slow speaking / bad debate, etc is completely separate for me from his policies or what I do / don’t like.

Any post mortem has to include the loss of Clinton when all indications were present that a Trump win would be a disaster for progress, and not one we would ever easily recover from.

I agree. I just don’t agree that all of that fault falls on voters. I can’t give an exact breakdown because I truly don’t know, but I believe it involves both democratic voters and the party itself as well as the Clinton campaign.

We’re living it now. People can fairly criticize her candidacy, but then we should be honest in recognizing that Sanders has also been a failed national candidate because he’s been unsuccessful winning over voters when he’s run. That’s not said to aggravate pressure points, but we have to make a comprehensive examination if we want to make sufficient inroads.

I don’t think many even progressive voters thought Sanders visions were going to become mainstream in an election cycle or two. For what Sanders ran for, he really did a huge number on bringing ideas that were considered “extremist”, “radical”, “utopian” etc like universal health care, pre-K, calling out the out of control corporations influencing politics, etc to the mainstream. Now many progressive ideas at least are very popular amongst the public, at least polling wise.

I think that you’re right, he was a failed candidate. We have to investigate that too. And I think it comes down partly to pitching ideas that were new and people weren’t used to them. In the end, many people went with a familiar face and policy in Clinton. I’m not blaming the American people for not embracing progressive ideas fully then. They voted how they voted. I voted for Clinton myself, and the majority of other Bernie voters I know did as well.

Certain progressive policies poll well in the abstract but then meet voter resistance in real scenarios. Progressive candidates don’t typically do well enough to win outside of progressive strongholds. I don’t know how we bridge the divides.

I think much of it as I mentioned earlier is a current climate that still reflects many conservative “norms” even amongst the Democratic Party but more so nationally - at least in comparison to other similar democratic nations (UK, France, Germany, Australia) etc

So there is evidence people have warmed up to these ideas quite a bit, but it’s not something that will likely happen quickly. Though I say that knowing certain candidacies and politicians can push these ideals forward more quickly with enough momentum.

Hell, look how the GOP has changed in both policy and behavior in the last 8 years.

 

[Heathen]

Watch the video above, then ask yourself how is this race even close?

I know.. it’s hard for me to ask that question and then think of pointing to fellow voters. Maybe they share some of the blame, I can admit, but there’s very clearly a larger issue at play.

 

[MT15]

Something to keep in mind:

 

[MT15]

Watch the video above, then ask yourself how is this race even close?

I’m not so sure it’s as close as the polls would have you believe. Election results starting in 2022 tell a different story than the polls.

I saw a discussion where a retired pollster was saying that by looking at cross tabs most polls are underrepresenting women and black voters. He may be on to something.

 

[Lapaz]

No, it means every election matters.

You said that it is a growing sentiment, and that Trump is easily replicated. I don't think he is easily replicated, but I do think the sentiment to turn this country into a Christian nationalist authoritarian country is strong, engrained, insidious, and most concerning growing sentiment. If he is easily replacted, eventually another Trumpist will win an election with a lot more understanding of how to convert the country. The only hope is that losing leads the Republican party to rebuke christofacists.

 

[SamAndreas]

There is one thing I like about this thread, its how it's a topic which calls for people to write their own responses where they try to show each other how they feel. Makes for interesting reading once someone has decided that the issue is going to blow over or result in Harris being at the top of the ticket like I have. Win, or almost maybe win.

About that attempt a couple days ago I made to turn myself into the fart lady and sing this thread to sleep. The spell I got from Hogwarts, it didn't work out very well.

I wound up with the farts part, didn't get the lady part, and with those farts being thunderous, I couldn't hardy sing now could I.

Certainly not to sing something to sleep.

 

[SamAndreas]

Live in three hours:

 

[SamAndreas]

Here's the data being tracked at PBS, Last updated 11 July 12:45 PM (et)

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/05/g-s1-8551/biden-support-tracker

I'll set N to be 535 divided by 2 est. for Democrats in Congress >>> N =267, that should closely approximate their actual numbers. The time for the point will be the date and time of the last up date above.

The four calculations will be:

1) Percent who want Biden to step down at this point: 15 people 5.6%


2) Percent who want Biden to stay at this point: 34 people 12.7%


3) Percent who are wishy washy on the fence at this point: 21 people 7.80%


4)Percent who haven't said at this point: 197 undecided 73.8%



Test 5.6 + 12.7 + 7.8 + 73.8 = 99.9 - 100 = 0.1 rounding error

Total error will be whatever the error is when N was calculated instead of counted. est +/- 4 people 1.5% +rounding error 0.1%, Total error +/- 1.6%.

There will be no standard sistical error to add to the above because 15 +34 + 21 + 197 = N and in this case N = the universe, all Congress critters have been polled and counted. An assumption has been made that all Congress Critters have been badgered by news reporters for days, as thus all of them have been polled. That the sharks in the water type reporters have not missed a one of them who have indicated Biden should step down or was wishy washy in the slightest.

So this is the most accurate poll you have probably ever seen. I could have reduced the error down to +/- 0.1 by having counted them instead of estimating them to come up with N.