First presidential debate (2 Viewers)

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    Optimus Prime

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    Since we usually have a separate thread for these
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    NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden begins an intense period of private preparations Friday at Camp David for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

    The 81-year-old Democrat’s team is aware that he cannot afford an underwhelming performance when he faces Republican rival Donald Trump for 90 minutes on live television Thursday night. Biden’s team is expecting aggressive attacks on his physical and mental strength, his record on the economy and immigration and even his family.

    Trump, 78 and ever confident, will stay on the campaign trail before going to his Florida estate next week for two days of private meetings as part of an informal prep process.

    The former president’s allies are pushing him to stay focused on his governing plans, but they’re expecting him to be tested by pointed questions about his unrelenting focus on election fraud, his role in the erosion of abortion rights and his unprecedented legal baggage.

    Thursday’s debate on CNN will be full of firsts, with the potential to reshape the presidential race. Never before in the modern era have two presumptive nominees met on the debate stage so early in the general election season. Never before have two White House contenders faced off at such advanced ages, with widespread questions about their readiness.

    And never before has a general election debate participant been saddled with a felony conviction. The debate-stage meeting comes just two weeks before Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial.

    “You can argue this will be the most important debate, at least in my lifetime,” said Democratic strategist Jim Messina, 54, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

    PRESSURE ON BIDEN


    The ground rules for Thursday’s debate, the first of two scheduled meetings, are unusual.

    The candidates agreed to meet at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or prewritten notes will be allowed onstage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.

    There will be no opening statements. A coin flip determined that Biden would stand at the podium to the viewer’s right, while Trump would deliver the final closing statement.


    The next debate won’t be until September. Any stumbles Thursday will be hard to erase or replace quickly.………..

     
    Here's the data being tracked at PBS, Last updated 11 July 12:45 PM (et)


    I'll set N to be 535 divided by 2 est. for Democrats in Congress >>> N =267, that should closely approximate their actual numbers. The time for the point will be the date and time of the last up date above.

    The four calculations will be:

    1) Percent who want Biden to step down at this point: 15 people 5.6%


    2) Percent who want Biden to stay at this point: 34 people 12.7%


    3) Percent who are wishy washy on the fence at this point: 21 people 7.80%


    4)Percent who haven't said at this point: 197 undecided 73.8%



    Test 5.6 + 12.7 + 7.8 + 73.8 = 99.9 - 100 = 0.1 rounding error

    Total error will be whatever the error is when N was calculated instead of counted. est +/- 4 people 1.5% +rounding error 0.1%, Total error +/- 1.6%.


    Two-thirds of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll – including a majority of Joe Biden’s own supporters – say he should step aside as his party’s presumptive nominee for president given his debate performance two weeks ago. That’s even as Biden continues to run evenly with Donald Trump, with no meaningful post-debate change in vote preferences.
     
    That's an IPSOS poll, it has SOS in the title, send them a lifeboat please. That pollster disqualified themselves in my eyes in 2016. I caught them cooking the books. They randomized their results +/- 2% in harmony with the polling averages across quite a few categories, over quite a long length of time.

    They did better polling once the election was only a month away. They were fairly accurate once they did that. Election day is judgment day for pollsters, only their last poll will be evaluated by the news hounds for judgment about how they did.

    That creates kind of licence for them to be rotten during the early stages of an election year. It begs for abuse.
     
    That's an IPSOS poll, it has SOS in the title, send them a lifeboat please. That pollster disqualified themselves in my eyes in 2016. I caught them cooking the books. They randomized their results +/- 2% in harmony with the polling averages across quite a few categories, over quite a long length of time.

    They did better polling once the election was only a month away. They were fairly accurate once they did that. Election day is judgment day for pollsters, only their last poll will be evaluated by the news hounds for judgment about how they did.

    That creates kind of licence for them to be rotten during the early stages of an election year. It begs for abuse.

    Keep on coping.
     
    A group that can't be ignored...

    1720728294551.png
     
    A group that can't be ignored...

    1720728294551.png
    Exactly zero Haley supporters would vote for Harris, IMO. And if Biden steps down, I don’t see how it’s anybody except Harris. 🤷‍♀️

    She will be attacked hard as too progressive in a way that Biden wasn’t. Also because she is a woman, and not white.

    I am fine with her being president I am just worried about getting those undecideds to vote for her.

    The people (pundits) who are calling on Biden to step down have almost all talked about bypassing Harris, from what I see. If they are successful, and then bypass Harris to put someone in they like better, well, I think that’s one of the few scenarios where Trump is re-elected. The entire base of the party would be livid, all women and especially black women.

    This (the rush throw away the incumbency with no clear path forward) scares me to death, to be honest.
     
    Exactly zero Haley supporters would vote for Harris, IMO. And if Biden steps down, I don’t see how it’s anybody except Harris. 🤷‍♀️

    She will be attacked hard as too progressive in a way that Biden wasn’t. Also because she is a woman, and not white.

    I am fine with her being president I am just worried about getting those undecideds to vote for her.

    The people (pundits) who are calling on Biden to step down have almost all talked about bypassing Harris, from what I see. If they are successful, and then bypass Harris to put someone in they like better, well, I think that’s one of the few scenarios where Trump is re-elected. The entire base of the party would be livid, all women and especially black women.

    This (the rush throw away the incumbency with no clear path forward) scares me to death, to be honest.

    If Biden exits, he gets to negotiate his terms. If he wants Harris, that's what will happen.

    There will be no coup here. If he does press forward, you will hear soft whimpers, and crying from the halls of Congress though.
     
    You said that it is a growing sentiment, and that Trump is easily replicated. I don't think he is easily replicated, but I do think the sentiment to turn this country into a Christian nationalist authoritarian country is strong, engrained, insidious, and most concerning growing sentiment. If he is easily replacted, eventually another Trumpist will win an election with a lot more understanding of how to convert the country. The only hope is that losing leads the Republican party to rebuke christofacists.

    Might feel like splitting hairs to you but there are a couple of points I think we are understanding differently. I didn’t say growing sentiment, I said a growing number of Christofascist politicians are winning elections. I think their popularity with voters in certain places is the result of tapping into beliefs that already existed. I think the relationship between Christianity and fascism has been simmering a long time in this country.

    I didn’t say that Trump was easy to replicate, I said if the allure of Trump is centered in his contempt and rage-peddling, that is easy to replicate. Governor like Abbott and DeSantis are good examples. Their political success is largely the result of the needless and damaging culture wars they wage.
     
    Exactly zero Haley supporters would vote for Harris, IMO. And if Biden steps down, I don’t see how it’s anybody except Harris. 🤷‍♀️

    She will be attacked hard as too progressive in a way that Biden wasn’t. Also because she is a woman, and not white.

    I am fine with her being president I am just worried about getting those undecideds to vote for her.

    The people (pundits) who are calling on Biden to step down have almost all talked about bypassing Harris, from what I see. If they are successful, and then bypass Harris to put someone in they like better, well, I think that’s one of the few scenarios where Trump is re-elected. The entire base of the party would be livid, all women and especially black women.

    This (the rush throw away the incumbency with no clear path forward) scares me to death, to be honest.
    I agree with a lot of what you say. It's somewhat disconcerting to me how certain posters here seem so sure they are right about their position - on one side, "changing candidates at this point is a guaranteed loss," on the other, "Biden is guaranteed to lose." I'm voting the D ticket, whoever that ends up being no matter what. All I want is the best shot at defeating Trump, or at least minimizing GOP gains in the House and Senate - but I don't know what the best path is.

    But my lean is... we need a change. Any change is risky, yes, but "staying the course" seems even riskier. I don't take much comfort in Dr. Lichtman's "keys," because there are at least a dozen factors in this race that have no precedent. If you want the incumbency key, then it's simply a matter of Biden resigning the Presidency, Harris becomes President, and the party somehow rallies behind her as the candidate. Boom, you have the incumbency key, but you probably aren't going to feel great about that because it's an unprecedented situation.

    45% of people are going to vote for Biden even if he's in hospice come election day, and 45% of people are going to vote for Trump even if he's caught on video killing a puppy. The 45% who would vote Biden no matter what - wouldn't they vote for Harris if she was the top of the ticket? The question is how to get as many as you can of the other 10%, which will include many who genuinely would love to vote against Trump - they just need an alternative that is palatable enough for them.

    I share your concerns about potential prejudices against a Black woman, but if (just guessing here) 75% of Americans think Biden won't make it through a second term, isn't a Biden campaign also going to be about whether people are good with Harris being President? If so, maybe we should embrace it. We at least know that SHE is capable of debating Trump and effectively arguing her case. I'm convinced Biden's not capable of doing it anymore. If the data is indicating Biden is heading toward a loss, give Harris a shot. I'd rather go down with that than what I saw in the last debate.
     
    Just now catching some of the news from today and... man, from the debate through all that's happened since.. I just think Biden's too thoroughly damaged and think that ultimately his inner, inner circle will have to come to grips with that.

    I think Kamala probably ends up as the nominee, whether you think it's right or wrong.. this whole firestorm is just too much off the heels of that debate.
     


    Maybe a gaffe, maybe his meds are wearing off and it’s why the press conference is delayed.
     
    I agree with a lot of what you say. It's somewhat disconcerting to me how certain posters here seem so sure they are right about their position - on one side, "changing candidates at this point is a guaranteed loss," on the other, "Biden is guaranteed to lose." I'm voting the D ticket, whoever that ends up being no matter what. All I want is the best shot at defeating Trump, or at least minimizing GOP gains in the House and Senate - but I don't know what the best path is.

    But my lean is... we need a change. Any change is risky, yes, but "staying the course" seems even riskier. I don't take much comfort in Dr. Lichtman's "keys," because there are at least a dozen factors in this race that have no precedent. If you want the incumbency key, then it's simply a matter of Biden resigning the Presidency, Harris becomes President, and the party somehow rallies behind her as the candidate. Boom, you have the incumbency key, but you probably aren't going to feel great about that because it's an unprecedented situation.

    45% of people are going to vote for Biden even if he's in hospice come election day, and 45% of people are going to vote for Trump even if he's caught on video killing a puppy. The 45% who would vote Biden no matter what - wouldn't they vote for Harris if she was the top of the ticket? The question is how to get as many as you can of the other 10%, which will include many who genuinely would love to vote against Trump - they just need an alternative that is palatable enough for them.

    I share your concerns about potential prejudices against a Black woman, but if (just guessing here) 75% of Americans think Biden won't make it through a second term, isn't a Biden campaign also going to be about whether people are good with Harris being President? If so, maybe we should embrace it. We at least know that SHE is capable of debating Trump and effectively arguing her case. I'm convinced Biden's not capable of doing it anymore. If the data is indicating Biden is heading toward a loss, give Harris a shot. I'd rather go down with that than what I saw in the last debate.

    I’m not quite as comfortable with a change as you seem to be but this is a good post.
     
    If Biden exits, he gets to negotiate his terms. If he wants Harris, that's what will happen.
    Exactly how does that work? Once he releases his delegates, they can vote for whoever they want, can they not? I mean, he could ask them to vote for Harris, but I don’t know of a way to force them to.
     

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