First presidential debate (1 Viewer)

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    Optimus Prime

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    Since we usually have a separate thread for these
    =================

    NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden begins an intense period of private preparations Friday at Camp David for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

    The 81-year-old Democrat’s team is aware that he cannot afford an underwhelming performance when he faces Republican rival Donald Trump for 90 minutes on live television Thursday night. Biden’s team is expecting aggressive attacks on his physical and mental strength, his record on the economy and immigration and even his family.

    Trump, 78 and ever confident, will stay on the campaign trail before going to his Florida estate next week for two days of private meetings as part of an informal prep process.

    The former president’s allies are pushing him to stay focused on his governing plans, but they’re expecting him to be tested by pointed questions about his unrelenting focus on election fraud, his role in the erosion of abortion rights and his unprecedented legal baggage.

    Thursday’s debate on CNN will be full of firsts, with the potential to reshape the presidential race. Never before in the modern era have two presumptive nominees met on the debate stage so early in the general election season. Never before have two White House contenders faced off at such advanced ages, with widespread questions about their readiness.

    And never before has a general election debate participant been saddled with a felony conviction. The debate-stage meeting comes just two weeks before Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial.

    “You can argue this will be the most important debate, at least in my lifetime,” said Democratic strategist Jim Messina, 54, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

    PRESSURE ON BIDEN


    The ground rules for Thursday’s debate, the first of two scheduled meetings, are unusual.

    The candidates agreed to meet at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or prewritten notes will be allowed onstage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.

    There will be no opening statements. A coin flip determined that Biden would stand at the podium to the viewer’s right, while Trump would deliver the final closing statement.


    The next debate won’t be until September. Any stumbles Thursday will be hard to erase or replace quickly.………..

     
    Here is a thread from a MI county election official. It would be good to listen to her, IMO, and consider the logistics she is discussing. I have copy-pasted so it isn’t all broken up in separate tweets.

    Hi there! 👋 Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, here. To all of those calling for a change of candidacy in the Presidential Race, please note that the election administration community is going to have some serious issues with that.

    To be clear, Michigan wouldn’t even be the worst of the problems. Our statute requires that a major party’s Presidential and Vice Presidential Candidates be certified to the State within one business day of that party’s national or state convention, whichever is later. The Democrats are holding their National Convention from August 19-22 and their Michigan State Convention on August 24th. The deadline is therefore August 26th. Ballots to Military and Overseas voters must go out by September 21st, 2024 and AV Ballots must be available to Michigan Voters by September 26th, 2024 by law.

    However, as I stated, this is for Michigan only. Every state has different statutory deadlines for ballot access and for Absentee Ballots to go out, and it is therefore dependent on identifying those dates and requirements 50 times. My cursory understanding of other states is that that deadline may already have passed for some states, or may be in the VERY near future.

    It is worth pointing out that even if Democrats follow the strictures of the law state-by-state, you would almost assuredly see lawsuits flying fast and often in any number of states, if they attempt to make a change. Such lawsuits threaten to delay and derail County and Local Clerks’ efforts to program the election and prepare ballots, respectively. Essentially, efforts to prepare for the election would have to be put on hold. That’s not a good thing in Election world.

    After the ballot is created, the election equipment must be tested. This is often a lengthy process that includes testing at the County prior to election materials being distributed to local Clerks, then the local clerks do internal testing and finally Public Accuracy Testing. Delays at any point in the process may impact local clerks’ ability to meet their statutory deadlines.

    So Democrats need to understand the ramifications of the actions that some are talking about. This may extend far beyond the choice for President and put a cloud over the election. It would also give ammunition to a candidate who hasn’t been shy about spreading disinformation about the validity of election results and give the opportunity to further erode the public’s trust in our elections process. And I will not stand for that.

    However Clerks in Michigan are the best in the business and we stand ready to conduct the Presidential Election this November with whatever candidates are legally placed on the ballot through the Primary and nominating Convention process.
     
    On the topic of does Trump/Republicans want Biden to stay in?






    From here on out, anyone with a different opinion, you need to come with a source like this. I'm tired of debating people's opinions with sources.

    Chris Lacivita is Trump's Senior advisor.

    Susie Wiles is this person:


    Investment Bankers aren't equal to life long career politicians, and advisors in the DNP. I don't care what random twitter accounts think about subjects, stop linking them.
    Donk, good grief, this is an article about what a Trump campaign official chose to share with a reporter. Even if he is being truthful, and not strategic, (and why would he tell the truth here, let’s be honest) it’s his opinion. Quit acting like you’re some great impartial person here just looking at facts. When you are shown polling that you don’t like, you find ways to discredit it. There is some serious confirmation bias you are operating with here. Your high horse is showing.

    I’ve posted Biden’s public schedule, and I have posted just now a discussion from a local MI election official explaining some of the logistical pitfalls with changing the ticket.

    You know who else doesn’t engage with what a source says, but disparages the source for something they don’t like about them? You know.

    Oh, and I posted a study from a prof at Northeastern who found that in a specific focus group Biden retained 94% of his voters while Trump only retained 86% of his post debate.
     
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    Why worry about the MAGAs when the democrats are doing more damage than anyone else to their cause? I really dont get it.
    Clooney is the guy that most Democratic voters liked to say he should stick to acting. Now some of those same people are hanging on his every word. Clooney has always been more of a follower than a leader, and his wife is also is very unhappy because she thinks the US is not doing enough to punish and prevent Israel's out of control assualt on Palestinians.

    This is all being fueled by a perfect storm of anxiety, insincerity and a desire to overthrow our government by Trump, Putin, China, North Korea, Saudi Arabia and other nations who want to destroy our democracy, so they have been running a scream campaign about Biden's age to help Trump win to overthrow our democracy.

    Some of the more progressive Democrats have conflicts of interest with another Biden administration and have been trying to bully Biden since he was elected. The previous issue they used was Israel and Hamas. That didn't get the traction they thought it would. They've stirred up the age issue before, but Biden kept that from getting traction by having up and down appearances, not just down ones. Even now he's had up moments during and after the debate, but some progressives aren't going to let go of this until they have no choice.

    What's crazy is that the progressives in Congress are saying they stand with Biden. Those progressives are rational enough to know it's a huge mistake to force Biden out. That completely falls on the deaf ears of some progressive voters who admire those very same Congressional progressives. They're even ignoring one of the Congressional progressives that they drool over as a replacement VP candidate.

    Then you have the billionaire obsessive hoarders who don't want any part of Biden continuing to create more economic equity in our society. They would rather we become a fascist nation than pay more taxes or more in wages to workers. Most of the news outlets are run by those men and the news outlets that aren't run by them are chasing the same story for the same clicks, so they don't lose money.

    The problem is that too many people with good intentions want to get exactly what they want when they want it and they won't stop throwing a tantrum until they get it. We have a society full of too many spoiled brat Veruca Salts. A lot of that comes from the American myth and lie about the "individual achievement" of "rugged individualism." Too many people aren't willing to compromise and others don't even know how to compromise.

    I'm not a fan of Biden. I never have been. I wanted Elizabeth Warren in 2020 and 2 other candidates before Biden. He's done a better job than I though he would. He's aged more than I thought he would. It's also too damn late in the game to change candidates.

    The only people who say it's not too late to change candidates are either well intentioned people being driven by fear or people with purely self-serving and selfish intentions. They are both being herded toward the demise of American democracy by influence campaigns lead by people that want to kill American democracy and pick apart it's carcass. Whether or not American democracy will survive remains to be seen. Fingers crossed.

    I'm very glad that the world's democracies are shifting away from being overly dependent on the US to protect the world's democracies, because I'm not as confident now that American democracy will survive as I was just a couple of weeks ago. I'm still confident, just somewhat less.
     
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    I don’t know if it’s possible or not to do what you’re saying, but the VP is always selected by the presidential candidate and I don’t know why that would need to change for this scenario. I don’t think it’s going to make any of the primary voters feel like it’s bringing a missing fairness to the process.
    Because it adds an element of democracy to choose the VP. The primary voters get both Harris, which they voted for the first time around, plus their VP. Nothing is normal about this approach, but the winner of that process would have a lot of supporters, so it adds more to the ticket than the average VP.
     
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    Sure, but not the lion’s share

    Project 2025 is truly terrifying.

    Abortion rights will continue to stripped.

    Kids will be forced to learn the Bible in school (as history at that)

    What about students of different religions, or those with no religion?

    Fork em’, they don’t matter and aren’t “real” Americans anyway

    Ditto LBGTQ Americans

    American exceptionalism will teach kids that America is the rootinest, tootinest country on Earth that is the best in and at everything and never ever did anything wrong

    “But what about that time America…”

    “I SAID NEVER DID ANYTHING WRONG!!!!”

    Career government employees will be able to be fired just cuz (and more ‘suitable’ people will replace them

    Undocumented will see the second coming of the Trail of Tears and/or Japanese internment camps and…..

    “I SAID NEVER DID ANYTHING WRONG!!!!”

    Freedom of the press and freedom to criticize the government and politicians (or make fun of them in SNL skits) will be under attack and scrutiny

    President Biden will not allow that to happen
    President Harris will not allow that to happen
    President Newsom will not allow that to happen
    President Whitmer will not allow that to happen

    Is this whole situation a cluster fork coming at the worse possible time?

    Sure

    Are there legitimate questions and concerns about Biden?

    Sure

    Are there legitimate questions about who would offer the best chance of winning?

    Sure

    If democrats lose will there be forever second guessing, and criticizing what was done, and endless speculating about what should have been done instead? (With 100% certainty that the “something else” would have guaranteed victory)

    Sure

    But no matter if Biden stays in or steps down and if he steps down no matter who the nominee is if Donald Trump wins I first, foremost and nearly exclusively will blame the people who voted for Donald Trump

    I get all of that. I just think that if we continue in this cycle of “every election is the potential end of democracy”, it makes a lot of sense for us as rational humans to investigate how we got to this point with as much humility as possible.

    Because ultimately if we don’t, the same shirteshow will just keep repeating.
     
    Because it adds an element of democracy to choose the VP. The primary voters get both Harris, which they voted for the first time around, plus their VP. Nothing is normal about this approach, but the winner of that process would have a lot of supporters, so it adds more to the ticket the the average VP.

    But it also means sticking the nominee with a VP they might not prefer. Typically, a VP selection is also a strategic electoral move. I don’t think that should be relinquished.
     
    I mentioned this in previous posts. If Biden stays in the race, the emphatic calls that were made for him to step aside can’t really be walked back.


    Yeah they’ve burned bridges for sure. I didn’t like to see it and I didn’t really focus on the source, but there is a lot of sniping back at Clooney right now. Someone said how would he know about Biden’s behavior during the fundraiser because he left as quickly as he could and Biden stayed for 3 hours and talked to everyone he could. 🤷‍♀️
     
    I get all of that. I just think that if we continue in this cycle of “every election is the potential end of democracy”, it makes a lot of sense for us as rational humans to investigate how we got to this point with as much humility as possible.

    Because ultimately if we don’t, the same shirteshow will just keep repeating.
    We got here because the GOP has capitulated totally and because people refused to vote for Clinton.
     
    And so you think that confirms a diagnosis of some form of dementia? There’s nothing official supporting that and while it’s clear he’s showing some signs of his age, that doesn’t mean he has dementia. Criticism is justified but causally fitting in claims as if they are facts seems pretty, uh, cultish? Blue MAGA? Maybe we’re better off sticking to what we know and being clear when we’re expressing matters of opinion or interpretation.

    I think there undoubtedly signs that point to a worrisome trend regarding his health.
     
    Donk, good grief, this is an article about what a Trump campaign official chose to share with a reporter. Even if he is being truthful, and not strategic, (and why would he tell the truth here, let’s be honest) it’s his opinion. Quit acting like you’re some great impartial person here just looking at facts. When you are shown polling that you don’t like, you find ways to discredit it. There is some serious confirmation bias you are operating with here. Your high horse is showing.

    I’ve posted Biden’s public schedule, and I have posted just now a discussion from a local MI election official explaining some of the logistical pitfalls with changing the ticket.

    You know who else doesn’t engage with what a source says, but disparages the source for something they don’t like about them? You know.

    Oh, and I posted a study from a prof at Northeastern who found that in a specific focus group Biden retained 94% of his voters while Trump only retained 86% of his.

    Since you won't read the article before discarding it. This wasn't a simple sit down. This is talking about one of their meetings in March. This article is an extremely deep dive into Trump's campaign.

    What unites them, with each other and Trump, is an obsession with winning. To that end, Wiles and LaCivita have never been focused on beating Biden at the margins; rather, their plan has been to bully him, to humiliate him, optimizing Trump’s campaign to unleash such a debilitating assault on the president’s age and faculties that he would be ruined before a single vote is cast this fall.

    At one point that March evening, the three of us sat discussing the era of hyperpolarization that Trump ushered in. Given the trench-warfare realities—a vanishing center of the electorate, consecutive presidential races decided by fractions of percentage points, incessant governing impasses between the two parties—I suggested that Electoral College blowouts were a thing of the past.

    They exchanged glances.

    “You know, I could make a case—” Wiles began.

    “I could too,” LaCivita said. He was grinning.

    In the scenario they were imagining, not only would Trump take back the White House in an electoral wipeout—a Republican carrying the popular vote for just the second time in nine tries—but he would obliterate entire downballot garrisons of the Democratic Party, forcing the American left to fundamentally recalibrate its approach to immigration, economics, policing, and the many cultural positions that have antagonized the working class. Wiles and LaCivita wouldn’t simply be credited with electing a president; they would be remembered for running a campaign that altered the nation’s political DNA.
     
    Don't be pedantic.

    If you don't think George Clooney's matters that's on you.

    on top of being known by literally everybody in a society that idolizes its celebrities, he is a major DNC donor and fundraiser? Major.
    I chuckled a bit over you calling me Pendanic, that was a bit of a hoot.

    You might want to refresh your memory as to that words meaning.

    I don't live in a society which keeps celebrities. And if he's wonderful uncle moneybags where donating it is concerned he's probably a billionaire. I want billionaire undue influence squeezed out of our politics, so I'm willing to see him depart.

    I would like to not allow those kinds of large political influence donations at all. They undermine my every step, as I walk on this Earth.

    That last I was describing billionaires as if they were gophers in their burrows down below my feet.
     
    Here is a thread from a MI county election official. It would be good to listen to her, IMO, and consider the logistics she is discussing. I have copy-pasted so it isn’t all broken up in separate tweets.

    Hi there! 👋 Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, here. To all of those calling for a change of candidacy in the Presidential Race, please note that the election administration community is going to have some serious issues with that.

    To be clear, Michigan wouldn’t even be the worst of the problems. Our statute requires that a major party’s Presidential and Vice Presidential Candidates be certified to the State within one business day of that party’s national or state convention, whichever is later. The Democrats are holding their National Convention from August 19-22 and their Michigan State Convention on August 24th. The deadline is therefore August 26th. Ballots to Military and Overseas voters must go out by September 21st, 2024 and AV Ballots must be available to Michigan Voters by September 26th, 2024 by law.

    However, as I stated, this is for Michigan only. Every state has different statutory deadlines for ballot access and for Absentee Ballots to go out, and it is therefore dependent on identifying those dates and requirements 50 times. My cursory understanding of other states is that that deadline may already have passed for some states, or may be in the VERY near future.

    It is worth pointing out that even if Democrats follow the strictures of the law state-by-state, you would almost assuredly see lawsuits flying fast and often in any number of states, if they attempt to make a change. Such lawsuits threaten to delay and derail County and Local Clerks’ efforts to program the election and prepare ballots, respectively. Essentially, efforts to prepare for the election would have to be put on hold. That’s not a good thing in Election world.

    After the ballot is created, the election equipment must be tested. This is often a lengthy process that includes testing at the County prior to election materials being distributed to local Clerks, then the local clerks do internal testing and finally Public Accuracy Testing. Delays at any point in the process may impact local clerks’ ability to meet their statutory deadlines.

    So Democrats need to understand the ramifications of the actions that some are talking about. This may extend far beyond the choice for President and put a cloud over the election. It would also give ammunition to a candidate who hasn’t been shy about spreading disinformation about the validity of election results and give the opportunity to further erode the public’s trust in our elections process. And I will not stand for that.

    However Clerks in Michigan are the best in the business and we stand ready to conduct the Presidential Election this November with whatever candidates are legally placed on the ballot through the Primary and nominating Convention process.
    This is using old fashion systems. Hire the American Idol online voter website developer. This could be done in days. It’s not rocket science.
     
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    I think there undoubtedly signs that point to a worrisome trend regarding his health.

    Certainly and he’s at an age (so is Trump) where health and mortality have to be taken into consideration. The White House has revealed health conditions he’s dealing with.

    You can observe Biden, see he’s showing signs of slowing down, but that’s not a basis for assuming specific medical conditions. I have long believed Trump shows signs of cognitive decline, but I haven’t diagnosed that with specificity because I can’t do that.

    Both of them are old men who aren’t quick on their feet, literally and figuratively, anymore. Ideally, neither would be in this race.
     
    I mentioned this in previous posts. If Biden stays in the race, the emphatic calls that were made for him to step aside can’t really be walked back.


    I don’t buy that. If he stays, of course they prefer Biden. I think it is nonsense that we have to appear unified in candidates, because we are unified against Trump.
     
    I don’t buy that. If he stays, of course they prefer Biden. I think it is nonsense that we have to appear unified in candidates, because we are unified against Trump.

    It's more of the what did Jon call it "Shut the F UP" crowd. That then tell us they aren't actually saying that.
     

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