First presidential debate (2 Viewers)

[Optimus Prime]

Since we usually have a separate thread for these
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NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden begins an intense period of private preparations Friday at Camp David for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

The 81-year-old Democrat’s team is aware that he cannot afford an underwhelming performance when he faces Republican rival Donald Trump for 90 minutes on live television Thursday night. Biden’s team is expecting aggressive attacks on his physical and mental strength, his record on the economy and immigration and even his family.

Trump, 78 and ever confident, will stay on the campaign trail before going to his Florida estate next week for two days of private meetings as part of an informal prep process.

The former president’s allies are pushing him to stay focused on his governing plans, but they’re expecting him to be tested by pointed questions about his unrelenting focus on election fraud, his role in the erosion of abortion rights and his unprecedented legal baggage.

Thursday’s debate on CNN will be full of firsts, with the potential to reshape the presidential race. Never before in the modern era have two presumptive nominees met on the debate stage so early in the general election season. Never before have two White House contenders faced off at such advanced ages, with widespread questions about their readiness.

And never before has a general election debate participant been saddled with a felony conviction. The debate-stage meeting comes just two weeks before Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial.

“You can argue this will be the most important debate, at least in my lifetime,” said Democratic strategist Jim Messina, 54, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

PRESSURE ON BIDEN


The ground rules for Thursday’s debate, the first of two scheduled meetings, are unusual.

The candidates agreed to meet at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or prewritten notes will be allowed onstage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.

There will be no opening statements. A coin flip determined that Biden would stand at the podium to the viewer’s right, while Trump would deliver the final closing statement.


The next debate won’t be until September. Any stumbles Thursday will be hard to erase or replace quickly.………..

How Biden and Trump are taking very different approaches to preparing for next week's debate

President Joe Biden is beginning an intense period of private debate preparations at Camp David. His trip comes as officials in both parties scramble to set expectations for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

apnews.com

 

[MT15]

Trump may have cognitive decline, but he doesn’t exhibit the lapses in memory and slurred speech.

Yes, he actually does. Just watch him sometimes. He repeatedly said that Haley was the person responsible for the defense of the Capitol on Jan 6. There are mash up clips of him mangling words all over the place.

 

[J-DONK]

It’s paywalled for me. You might take that into consideration.

And when is Trump ever anything but confident in his campaign but if he loses it’ll be totally rigged? I’m not saying it’s not a worthwhile article, in which many great points might be made, but what is the real difference in bravado from his previous two campaigns?

They narrowed their focus, and put old pro's in charge of all of it. Trump seems to actually listen to these two as well. I imagine it's because he is up.

Let me find some good quotes in it:

They are focused on minorities, but in a very targeted demo:

The campaign is now engineering a mobilization program aimed at making absentee voting seamless and customizable based on each voter’s jurisdiction. (The initiative, dubbed “Swamp the Vote,” comes with face-saving disclaimers about this being necessary only to defeat the sinister, election-stealing left.) This project might not assuage the Trump-fueled fears of Republican base voters, but that’s hardly the point. His campaign sees the mail-voting push as a path to attracting a slice of the electorate that the Republican Party has spent two decades ignoring: low-propensity left-leaning voters, especially young men of color, who, due to some combination of panic and boredom, turned out for Biden in 2020.

Ironically enough, it was Obama’s dominant showings with nonwhite voters in 2008 and 2012—winning them by margins of four to one—that inspired a Republican autopsy report that called for kinder, gentler engagement with minority communities. Now record numbers of Black and Latino men might be won over by the same candidate who prescribes mass deportations, trafficks in openly racist rhetoric, and talks about these voters in ways that border on parody. “He says stuff like ‘The Blacks love me!’’” LaCivita remarked to me at one point. He threw his arms up, looking equal parts dumbfounded and delighted. “Who the fork would say that?”

Wiles, for her part, wanted to be clear about the campaign’s aims. “It’s so targeted—we’re not fighting for Black people,” she said. “We’re fighting for Black men between 18 and 34.”

Ronald Brownstein: How Trump is dividing minority voters

When she told me this, we were standing together backstage—LaCivita, Wiles, and me—at the Turning Point USA event in Detroit. Most of the faces in the crowd were white; the same had been true a few hours earlier, when Trump spoke at a Black church on the city’s impoverished west side. But that didn’t matter much to Wiles and LaCivita. The voters they’re targeting wouldn’t even know Trump was in Detroit that day, much less come out to see him. These aren’t people whose neighborhoods will be canvassed by Republican volunteers; rather, they will be the subject of a sweeping media campaign aimed at fueling disillusionment with the Democratic Party.

As we stood chatting, I remembered something that one of Trump’s allies had told me months earlier—a sentiment that has since been popularized and described in different ways: “For every Karen we lose, we’re going to win a Jamal and an Enrique.” Wiles nodded in approval.

“That’s a fact. I believe it. And I so believe we’re realigning the party,” she told me.

Wiles paused. “And I don’t think we’re gonna lose all the Karens, either. They buy eggs. They buy gas. They know. They may not tell their neighbor, or their carpool line, but they know.”

This part goes into how focused the campaign is on only a few battleground states:

The Trump campaign’s approach wouldn’t be feasible in most presidential elections. But in 2024, LaCivita told me, there are “probably four” true battlegrounds: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (He said the campaign feels confident, based on public and private polling, as well as its own internal modeling, that Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina are moving out of reach for Biden.) In this scenario, Trump’s team doesn’t need to execute a national campaign. They are “basically running four or five Senate races,” Beth Myers, a senior adviser to Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign against Barack Obama, told me. “And they can get away with it, because the playing field is just that small now.”

Myers is no Trump fan. Still, she credits Wiles and LaCivita with developing a strategy that recognizes both the “excesses” of past Republican campaigns and the realities of a new electorate. In 2012, Romney and Obama fought over a much larger map that included Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, and even, at least initially, Missouri and Indiana. “Vendors got involved and started telling us that we needed seven ‘touches’—that the number of contacts was more important than who we were contacting,” Myers said. “But we got that wrong. I think the quality of the touch is much more important than the quantity of the touch, and I think that’s what Chris is doing here.”

 

[LA - L.A.]

Correct.


Anyone who thinks Biden is fit to run for reelection, or even be the President at this moment, is in a cult.

Hey, I can play that childish game too. Don't believe me? Here you go.

Anyone, who thinks that "anyone who thinks Biden is fit to run for reelection, or even be the President at this moment, is in a cult," is in a cult.

See how easy it is to say stupid, immature, irrational crap?

 

[Incumbent]

Observance of someone’s speech has no bearing at all in speculating that there may be an underlying medical condition? Am I repeating what you said right?

No, you aren’t repeating what I said correctly.

It’s possible to observe signs of cognitive decline. It’s an assumption to conclude that it is the result of a specific condition, without being the doctor seeing the patient.

We are all free to speculate as we wish, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re right.

 

[LA - L.A.]

There is a 0% chance that if Biden is on the ticket, the Dems win.

Since you can see into the future, would you help a brother out by giving me the winning Super Lotto numbers for Wednesday Nov 6th, 2024? I've already got the Mega Millions numbers covered with someone else.

 

[SamAndreas]

I was going to mention the former there, I remember reading how in the debate's aftermath some Democrats were surprised/frustrated that they weren't hearing from Biden directly.

I don't know who he has and has not had meetings with inside the party in the time since (outside of the group of governors), but I would not be surprised at all if it's being controlled in order to prevent an elected Democrat from meeting with him and immediately coming with "yeah, I saw it firsthand and we have to make a change."

So Biden has a cold during the debate, the old calls for for 7 to 10 days before completely recovering, during that time increase fluids, get more rest.

So suddenly there were Democrats who were frustrated that Biden didn't just waltz in to where they were, and immediately rim them up nice in person?

I don't think brown nose rimming folks is one of the things a person with a cold ought to be doing. Why, those frustrated critters might come down with Biden's cold down there in their nether regions. If he were to please them.

That was a good call on Biden's part to not do that.

 

[Incumbent]

They narrowed their focus, and put old pro's in charge of all of it. Trump seems to actually listen to these two as well. I imagine it's because he is up.

Let me find some good quotes in it:

They are focused on minorities, but in a very targeted demo:



This part goes into how focused the campaign is on only a few battleground states:

If any of that turns out to be true, it doesn’t sound like who the Democratic candidate is would matter. They seem to think they can tap into something they haven’t been able to before.

They are also targeting voters who can be difficult to turn out. It remains to be seen if messaging about Project 2025 resonates with people who don’t want to see the police state strengthened.

 

[LA - L.A.]

I respectfully disagree. I know you don't like Biden very much due to the war in Palestine, but Biden has something that none of the other candidates have. Credibility and a record of success when it comes to his actual track record with regards to jobs, inflation etc.. He also have a long lifetime of experience with foreign politics and a lot of goodwill among most foreign leaders. You just don't "plug" some new person into that spot. Biden also have a solid cabinet and has managed to gather a team of very good people.

If you replace Biden with someone else there may be infighting in the democratic party and the losers supporters may stay home rather than vote. Most obvious candidates would also be scrutinized at at whole new level and you never know what will surface. Replacing Biden now is what the MAGAs want and will IMHO ensure a Trump victory

You'd think, that of all people, the Bernie supporters that refused to vote in 2016 which gave the election win to Trump would realize that if Biden is pushed out, a lot of people will be angry about that and not vote, which will likely throw the election to Trump just like in 2016.

What's notable is that there is a huge overlap in the Bernie supporters that didn't vote because "Bernie got screwed" and the people who are now banging the drum demanding Biden drop out. They don't seem to understand that a risky amount of Biden supporters will let their anger over Biden being forced out overcome their fear of Trump winning and will not vote.

Even more notable, Bernie has told everyone we need to get behind Biden and get focused on policy, yet too many of his supporters are ignoring that. They trust Bernie's judgment except when it comes to that.

 

[Heathen]

Interestingly - Biden has great blue-collar appeal. He does well with working class voters.

He certainly had more appeal there than Clinton did.

 

[MT15]

He certainly had more appeal there than Clinton did.

And he is picking up support from seniors as well. I’ve been reading about it for weeks now.

 

[Heathen]

No, you aren’t repeating what I said correctly.

It’s possible to observe signs of cognitive decline. It’s an assumption to conclude that it is the result of a specific condition, without being the doctor seeing the patient.

We are all free to speculate as we wish, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re right.

Thanks for clarifying that.

I didn’t make any assumptions to a particular condition. What I did say, and I’ll repeat, is that appears to be some level of cognitive issue occurring.

What is your speculation as to his health?

 

[J-DONK]

If any of that turns out to be true, it doesn’t sound like who the Democratic candidate is would matter. They seem to think they can tap into something they haven’t been able to before.

They are also targeting voters who can be difficult to turn out. It remains to be seen if messaging about Project 2025 resonates with people who don’t want to see the police state strengthened.

The only thing they are worried about would be a Biden dropout from the race.

 

[MT15]

What I am saying is that there’s most certainly a basis for assuming a possible medical condition from observed behavior.

Yes, but you would have to assume that Biden’s physician is lying about his health as well because he makes his medical reports public and they are not the Trumpy medical reports either. I read Biden’s the other day, it’s public.

 

[Incumbent]

Thanks for clarifying that.

I didn’t make any assumptions to a particular condition. What I did say, and I’ll repeat, is that appears to be some level of cognitive issue occurring.

What is your speculation as to his health?

You didn’t, but you were responding to a post in which I was addressing somebody who had. Rather than asking me to speculate about his health with specifity, which I’ve already addressed, perhaps go back and reconsider the full exchange and decide if that’s really necessary.

I had already agreed with you.

 

[Incumbent]

The only thing they are worried about would be a Biden dropout from the race.

That’s an opinion, for sure.

 

[Heathen]

You'd think, that of all people, the Bernie supporters that refused to vote in 2016 which gave the election win to Trump would realize that if Biden is pushed out, a lot of people will be angry about that and not vote, which will likely throw the election to Trump just like in 2016.

What's notable is that there is a huge overlap in the Bernie supporters that didn't vote because "Bernie got screwed" and the people who are now banging the drum demanding Biden drop out. They don't seem to understand that a risky amount of Biden supporters will let their anger over Biden being forced out overcome their fear of Trump winning and will not vote.

Even more notable, Bernie has told everyone we need to get behind Biden and get focused on policy, yet too many of his supporters are ignoring that. They trust Bernie's judgment except when it comes to that.

Bernie hasn’t run for a good while. For clarification, what current group are you talking about?

 

[Heathen]

Yes, but you would have to assume that Biden’s physician is lying about his health as well because he makes his medical reports public and they are not the Trumpy medical reports either. I read Biden’s the other day, it’s public.

I mean…I don’t know. I’m no conspiracist, but I think there’d be good reason to think that the Biden campaign wouldn’t want this leaked if there were an issue. Maybe he’s got no particular medical issue but his brain just isn’t as sharp? I don’t know. As I’ve said, all speculative.

I’d err on the side of hoping officials are truthful, but I’ve been burned in that line of thinking a lot as well

 

[SamAndreas]

I know they were normal, but do you deny that if the party knew what they know today, that he would’ve been challenged by more serious contenders? Do you believe the electorate would’ve chosen differently? I do. It’s not usually the case that an electorate becomes convinced that the candidate can not finish anither term. Has that ever happened?

Not for the Presidency, that I'm aware of. Mel Carnahan was elected the the US Senate posthumously. Beat John Ashcroft.

There weren't chattering folks back then who thought he ought to drop out if that race after he was dead, hell no, that attracted some sympathy and more votes, might have been why he won.

Being dead might actually be a political advantage in an election, sometimes.