First presidential debate (3 Viewers)

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Optimus Prime

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NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden begins an intense period of private preparations Friday at Camp David for what may be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

The 81-year-old Democrat’s team is aware that he cannot afford an underwhelming performance when he faces Republican rival Donald Trump for 90 minutes on live television Thursday night. Biden’s team is expecting aggressive attacks on his physical and mental strength, his record on the economy and immigration and even his family.

Trump, 78 and ever confident, will stay on the campaign trail before going to his Florida estate next week for two days of private meetings as part of an informal prep process.

The former president’s allies are pushing him to stay focused on his governing plans, but they’re expecting him to be tested by pointed questions about his unrelenting focus on election fraud, his role in the erosion of abortion rights and his unprecedented legal baggage.

Thursday’s debate on CNN will be full of firsts, with the potential to reshape the presidential race. Never before in the modern era have two presumptive nominees met on the debate stage so early in the general election season. Never before have two White House contenders faced off at such advanced ages, with widespread questions about their readiness.

And never before has a general election debate participant been saddled with a felony conviction. The debate-stage meeting comes just two weeks before Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial.

“You can argue this will be the most important debate, at least in my lifetime,” said Democratic strategist Jim Messina, 54, who managed former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign.

PRESSURE ON BIDEN


The ground rules for Thursday’s debate, the first of two scheduled meetings, are unusual.

The candidates agreed to meet at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or prewritten notes will be allowed onstage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.

There will be no opening statements. A coin flip determined that Biden would stand at the podium to the viewer’s right, while Trump would deliver the final closing statement.


The next debate won’t be until September. Any stumbles Thursday will be hard to erase or replace quickly.………..

 
Biden's mental condition has removed the incumbency advantage. We see it in polling. 75% people don't think he should run, etc.
And around 45% of the voters in those polls you rely on say they will still vote for Biden even with everything they know about Biden and Biden is within the margin of error of Trump.

I think Nate Silver still has Biden at like a 1/4.
I'm hoping Nate Silver's streak of being wrong in his odds making and predictions continues.

The one huge advantage of someone else running is Trumps age, and mental capacity goes back into the frying pan. He sounds as bad as Biden in that Florida speech.
Trump will be even more declined in Sept. His decline has been accelerating over the past year and each month it's more noticeable. Extra stress and pressure will accelerate his decline quite a bit. He's just start to get pressued on Project 2025 and the sexual stuff with underage girls provided by Epstein is right on it's heels.

They say patience is a virtue, because it's a very important thing to have, but also a very difficult thing to have.

The election will not be won or lost by anything that happens in July or August. By Sept and October, Trump will have to expose himself and show himself if he wants to win. He won't have any choice. Trump has lots of energy when he speaks, but he hasn't said anything that's not a total lie or bath sheet crazy in months. Eventually, news outlets will start fact checking Trump and people will be reminded of how terrible a person and terribly dangerous Trump is.

All recent historical evidence strongly suggest that about 60% of all women in all states are going to vote for Biden if he's on the ballot. They make up the majority of voters and they are not accurately represented in polling. That's one of the major reasons polling continues to be off.
 
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You didn’t, but you were responding to a post in which I was addressing somebody who had. Rather than asking me to speculate about his health with specifity, which I’ve already addressed, perhaps go back and reconsider the full exchange and decide if that’s really necessary.

I had already agreed with you.

Fair enough, my apologies for not noticing that.
 
He certainly had more appeal there than Clinton did.

Biden was surprisingly very pro labor, and union. His FTC is actually fighting against mergers that would decrease competition.

He ran as a transitionary one term presidency. If he had stuck to that, he would be remembered fondly by the entire base.
 
He ran in the previous election and finished second. I’m confused by your wording.

It was a response to LA’s post. I’m not sure what you’re confused about.

For clarification if that helps, I was wondering who these current “Bernie supporters” translate to now.

Are they the anti-genocide crowd? Young progressives? the Jill Stein brigade? I have a hard time keeping up with it so I was curious.
 
I mean…I don’t know. I’m no conspiracist, but I think there’d be good reason to think that the Biden campaign wouldn’t want this leaked if there were an issue. Maybe he’s got no particular medical issue but his brain just isn’t as sharp? I don’t know. As I’ve said, all speculative.

I’d err on the side of hoping officials are truthful, but I’ve been burned in that line of thinking a lot as well 🤷🏻‍♂️

You say that as if it doesn’t seem possible. Cognitive problems or decline aren’t at all uncommon and aren’t relegated to the elderly. Causes can range from expected (age related), functional, stress, nutrient deficiencies, to dementia and other disorders and diseases.

I have a sister who has been dealing with a variety of symptoms for several years related to her cognitive function and mobility. She doesn’t suffer from memory loss but can struggle at times to form and express thoughts. A definitive underlying cause has never been diagnosed, despite thorough testing, surgeries, and other procedures. The general diagnoses include spinal stenosis, peripheral neuropathy (I believe Biden might suffer from both), and functional movement disorder.
 
It was a response to LA’s post. I’m not sure what you’re confused about.

For clarification if that helps, I was wondering who these current “Bernie supporters” translate to now.

Are they the anti-genocide crowd? Young progressives? the Jill Stein brigade? I have a hard time keeping up with it so I was curious.

You said Bernie hasn’t run “in a good while”. I pointed out he ran in the last presidential election and that wording was confusing.
 
You said Bernie hasn’t run “in a good while”. I pointed out he ran in the last presidential election and that wording was confusing.

Okay, I could see how it may be confusing. I was just initially interested because the post I responded to referenced Bernie voters and didn’t know who that would be referring to this election cycle.
You say that as if it doesn’t seem possible. Cognitive problems or decline aren’t at all uncommon and aren’t relegated to the elderly. Causes can range from expected (age related), functional, stress, nutrient deficiencies, to dementia and other disorders and diseases.

I have a sister who has been dealing with a variety of symptoms for several years related to her cognitive function and mobility. She doesn’t suffer from memory loss but can struggle at times to form and express thoughts. A definitive underlying cause has never been diagnosed, despite thorough testing, surgeries, and other procedures. The general diagnoses include spinal stenosis, peripheral neuropathy (I believe Biden might suffer from both), and functional movement disorder.

I’m saying that I have a suspicion that it could be related to some form of early onset issue based on how quickly it has happened (even over the last few years, the changes in speech are jarring when viewed side by side). I am not sure.

Now - No, that doesn’t necessitate any disease, but I’d be curious to know what it would be. Either way, doesn’t seem that we’ll know anytime soon. You’d hope doctors would be able to treat anything he’s going through in that regard, but it may just be that he’s old and exhausted too.

I didn’t know Biden struggled with peripheral neuropathy. My dad has that too and the way I’ve seen him walk reminds me of how I’ve seen Joe walk, so I’m sure that’s painful. I’ve got it too, just a bit of foot dragging here and there for me.
 
Okay, I could see how it may be confusing. I was just initially interested because the post I responded to referenced Bernie voters and didn’t know who that would be referring to this election cycle.


I’m saying that I have a suspicion that it could be related to some form of early onset issue based on how quickly it has happened (even over the last few years, the changes in speech are jarring when viewed side by side).

Now - No, that doesn’t necessitate any disease, but I’d be curious to know what it would be. Either way, doesn’t seem that we’ll know anytime soon.

I didn’t know Biden struggled with peripheral neuropathy. My dad has that too and walks like that (well technically I have it as well but mine isn’t as bad .. yet).

I think it was in his medical report that might have been posted in this thread or I saw it elsewhere.

My main point is that cognitive issues can be related to any of a variety of factors so it’s not accurate to assume dementia or Parkinson’s, as some have.

It’s been hard watching my sister struggle. She used to be an avid runner and now uses a cane and walker. She had to retire from teaching. I wish you well.
 
Bernie hasn’t run for a good while. For clarification, what current group are you talking about?
In 2016, one of the major things that swung the election to Trump was a lot of voters disgruntled that Bernie didn't get the nomination refused to vote out of anger and spite.

Right now, a lot of those voters who didn't vote out of anger and spite in 2016 are banging the drum to push Biden out.

They should know better than to assume that if Biden is pushed out, the people who love and still want Biden, and they make up a significant percentage of the voters, will automatically just vote for whoever replaces Biden.

It's like they've forgotten their own actions in 2016. If Biden is replace a lot of Biden supporters will refuse to vote out of anger and spite, just like Bernie supporters did in 2016.

That creates a big risk of the replacement losing. We know that polling shows that on the question of voting (head to head), not approval, the polls show both Biden and Trump neck and neck, even before accounting for the margin of error. Those same polls show that when it comes to voting, other replacements poll worse than Trump, and that's without anger or resentment because Biden has been forced out.

If one is using polling as a guide, I think the unknown risk that comes with a new candidate who's already polling in voting behind Biden is an irrational risk to take.

There's two things that the people who want Biden out consistently do when quoting polls.
  1. They quote the approval or is he too old results and never quote the head to head results which is asking the voters who they would vote for out of Biden and Trump.
  2. They ignore the margin of error in polls on the few occasions they acknowledge the head to head result.
I think they always do that, because when you look at the Biden vs Trump head to head results, even since the debate, and factor in the margin of error, the polls they cite show Biden and Trump are in a neck and neck race.

The polls also show that none of the likely replacements are doing any better in the head to head question. People think a new person will get a bump, but they're overlooking three things.
  1. The replacement is just as likely to loose Democratic voters as gain them. In the head to head polling, Biden has a high percentage of Democratic voters saying they will vote for him. There's not much ground to gain there and a lot of ground to lose with voters not voting out of protest over Biden being removed.
  2. I don't think any replacement is going to gain any ground with Republican voters.
  3. If there truly is a significant number of undecided/independent/sitter voters, I don't think it's rational to assume they will get behind a replacement candidate. I think that there's a few really big risks with a replacement candidate here.
    1. They will immediately get smeared by Trump and foreign actors with just as much false propaganda as Biden has been hit with. Everybody's focused only on the question of too old right now, but it's not the only things voters care about and they dislike a lot of other things a lot more than being too old, pocket book issues for starters.
    2. The replacement candidate will start out behind with the so called "sitters." Their campaign will be just coming out the gate while Trump is already in the final stretch on every level, and as I said above, they will have mud kicked in their face before they even get out of the gate. It's pie in the sky, wing and a prayer to think they can catch up in four months time. It's not rational to think they can.
If one is relying on polls, they should rely more on the head to head voting results more than anything else and they should factor in the margin of error.

I think the reason the people who want Biden out avoid citing and discussing those two things is that they know the polls they cite and rely on don't actually make a case for replacing Biden as the most rational and safest move.

I think that's the reason they only cite and talk about the approval results and the "too old" results, because those are the only results they can make any kind of case with.

It's a weak case, because the only thing that will matter when people start voting his how they vote. The polls the "Biden must go" crowd cite have consistently shown that on the question of how voters will actually vote:
  • Biden and Trump have consistently been in a neck and neck race, even though people know how old Biden is and after seeing Biden in the debate. He's been hit as hard as he can be hit and still neck and neck with Trump in the polls they rely on.
  • None of the potential replacements are doing any better and none of them have taken any hits at all.
 
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In 2016, one of the major things that swung the election to Trump was a lot of voters disgruntled that Bernie didn't get the nomination refused to vote out of anger and spite.

Right now, a lot of those voters who didn't vote out of anger and spite in 2016 are banging the drum to push Biden out.

They should know better than to assume that if Biden is pushed out, the people who love and still want Biden, and they make up a significant percentage of the voters, will automatically just vote for whoever replaces Biden.

It's like they've forgotten their own actions in 2016. If Biden is replace a lot of Biden supporters will refuse to vote out of anger and spite, just like Bernie supporters did in 2016.

That creates a big risk of the replacement losing. We know that polling shows that on the question of voting (head to head), not approval, the polls show both Biden and Trump neck and neck, even before accounting for the margin of error. Those same polls show that when it comes to voting, other replacements poll worse than Trump, and that's without anger or resentment because Biden has been forced out.

If one is using polling as a guide, I think the unknown risk that comes with a new candidate who's already polling in voting behind Biden is an irrational risk to take.

There's two things that the people who want Biden out consistently do when quoting polls.
  1. They quote the approval or is he too old results and never quote the head to head results which is asking the voters who they would vote for out of Biden and Trump.
  2. They ignore the margin of error in polls on the few occasions they acknowledge the head to head result.
I think they always do that, because when you look at the Biden vs Trump head to head results, even since the debate, and factor in the margin of error, the polls they cite show Biden and Trump are in a neck and neck race.

The polls also show that none of the likely replacements are doing any better in the head to head question. People think a new person will get a bump, but they're overlooking three thingsthings.
  1. The replacement is just as likely to loose Democratic voters as gain them. In the head to head polling, Biden has a high percentage of Democratic voters saying they will vote for him. There's not much ground to gain there and a lot of ground to lose with voters not voting out of protest over Biden being removed.
  2. I don't think any replacement is going to gain any ground with Republican voters.
  3. If there truly is a significant number of undecided/independent/sitter voters, I don't think it's rational to assume they will get behind a replacement candidate. I think that there's a few really big risks with a replacement candidate here.
    1. They will immediately get smeared by Trump and foreign actors with just as much false propaganda as Biden has been hit with. Everybody's focused only on the question of too old right now, but it's not the only things voters care about and they dislike a lot of other things a lot more than being too old, pocket book issues for starters.
    2. The replacement candidate will start out behind with the so called "sitters." Their campaign will be just coming out the gate while Trump is already in the final stretch on every level, and as I said above, they will have mud kicked in their face before they even get out of the gate. It's pie in the sky, wing and a prayer to think they can catch up in four months time. It's not rational to think they can.
If one is relying on polls, they should rely more on the head to head voting results more than anything else and they should factor in the margin of error.

I think the reason the people who want Biden out avoid citing and discussing those two things is that they know the polls they cite and rely on don't actually make a case for replacing Biden as the most rational and safest move.

I think that's the reason they only cite and talk about the approval results and the "too old" results, because those are the only results they can make any kind of case with.

It's a weak case, because the only thing that will matter when people start voting his how they vote. The polls the "Biden must go" crowd cite have consistently shown that on the question of how voters will actually vote:
  • Biden and Trump have consistently been in a neck and neck race, even though people know how old Biden is and after seeing Biden in the debate. He's been hit as hard as he can be hit and still neck and neck with Trump in the polls they rely on.
  • None of the potential replacements are doing any better and none of them have taken any hits at all.

I knew eventually someone would blame progressives for the schism over Biden.

 
I think a great analogy would be drawing 4 cards in 5 card draw when all we have Jack high.
I now understand you better. You've made a number of gambling analogies which suggests you're a gambler.

Let's follow you're analogy through: going to a replacement would be like throwing even the Jack away and drawing 5 cards or just dropping out of the round all together.

How is that in any way the best course of action in your analogy?

Also, you don't seem to take in account something simple. Things can get a lot worse under Biden.
And you aren't taking into account they could also get much worse with a replacement too, especially since the replacement won't have been vetted, challenged and mud smeared as much as Biden has. None of us have any idea how a replacement will fair.

CNN showed polling from this point in the race Trump actual election results were 5 points higher.
Just yesterday you ridiculed MT15 for "cherry picking" polls and not just staying with one poll and told her it wasn't a good look.

Yet, here you are jumping to a different cherry picked poll, because at the time you posted the above, the poll you've been consistently quoting doesn't show the same voting lead for Trump that CNN does.

That hypocrisy is not a good look for you at all, but you keep putting it on.

Back to the gambler thing, it seems to fit you're mindset about this issue. You're willing to gamble on getting a better hand and like a lot of gamblers you've talked yourself into believing you're not taking a gamble.

It's fine if you to do that with yourself, but stop trying to convince people that you know that the least risky thing to do is kick Biden out, because you don't know squat about that.

You're chasing a gambler's hunch on that and have convinced yourself you know the new cards you draw are going to fall exactly the way you want them to.

Gambling and life doesn't work that way, amigo.
 
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Who in your mind deserves blame if Democrats run Biden in a few months and lose?
It will be a cumulative effort if Biden or a replacement loses.

All of the infighting to get Biden out will have contributed to that cumulative loss, regardless of it's Biden or a replacement.

All of this chaotic infighting is going to hurt the chances of Biden or a replacement winning.
 
No offense to anyone, I don't understand arguing against Biden, and then also say your not voting for him. I'll vote for whoever is up there. I just disagree about our chances with JRB.
Genuine question with truce flag in one hand and olive branch in the other.

Is there a specific day on which if Biden refuses to step out of the race, you'll start supporting him and stop arguing for him to be replaced.

I'll go first, if a replacement is certified by the DNC Convention, then I'll give them my full support immediately.

I'll keep any issues I might have with the process, the candidates, or the people who made replacing Biden happen to my damn self, until the day after Nov 5th. For me to do anything else would just be a selfish, privileged exercise in self-indulgence. People, who don't check the demographic boxes I check off, can't afford that same privilege.

If Trump wins, I could skate by unscathed if I wanted. Others don't have that privilege either. These are just the standards I hold myself up to, I don't expect anyone else to have my standards.
 
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