Civil War 2? (1 Viewer)

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    Optimus Prime

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    Very sobering article
    ================
    If you know people still in denial about the crisis of American democracy, kindly remove their heads from the sand long enough to receive this message: A startling new finding by one of the nation’s top authorities on foreign civil wars says we are on the cusp of our own.

    Barbara F. Walter, a political science professorat the University of California at San Diego, serves on a CIA advisory panel called the Political Instability Task Force that monitors countries around the world and predicts which of them are most at risk of deteriorating into violence.

    By law, the task force can’t assess what’s happening within the United States, but Walter, a longtime friend who has spent her career studying conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Rwanda, Angola, Nicaragua and elsewhere, applied the predictive techniques herself to this country.

    Her bottom line: “We are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.” She lays out the argument in detail in her must-read book, “How Civil Wars Start,” out in January. “No one wants to believe that their beloved democracy is in decline, or headed toward war,” she writes.

    But, “if you were an analyst in a foreign country looking at events in America — the same way you’d look at events in Ukraine or the Ivory Coast or Venezuela — you would go down a checklist, assessing each of the conditions that make civil war likely.

    And what you would find is that the United States, a democracy founded more than two centuries ago, has entered very dangerous territory.”

    Indeed, the United States has already gone through what the CIA identifies as the first two phases of insurgency — the “pre-insurgency” and “incipient conflict” phases — and only time will tell whether the final phase, “open insurgency,” began with the sacking of the Capitol by Donald Trump supporters on Jan. 6.

    Things deteriorated so dramatically under Trump, in fact, that the United States no longer technically qualifies as a democracy. Citing the Center for Systemic Peace’s “Polity” data set — the one the CIA task force has found to be most helpful in predicting instability and violence — Walter writes that the United States is now an “anocracy,” somewhere between a democracy and an autocratic state.

    U.S. democracy had received the Polity index’s top score of 10, or close to it, for much of its history. But in the five years of the Trump era, it tumbled precipitously into the anocracy zone; by the end of his presidency, the U.S. score had fallen to a 5, making the country a partial democracy for the first time since 1800.

    “We are no longer the world’s oldest continuous democracy,” Walter writes. “That honor is now held by Switzerland, followed by New Zealand, and then Canada. We are no longer a peer to nations like Canada, Costa Rica, and Japan, which are all rated a +10 on the Polity index.”…….

    Others have reached similar findings. The Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance put the United States on a list of “backsliding democracies” in a report last month.

    “The United States, the bastion of global democracy, fell victim to authoritarian tendencies itself," the report said.

    And a new survey by the academic consortium Bright Line Watch found that 17 percent of those who identify strongly as Republicans support the use of violence to restore Trump to power, and 39 percent favor doing everything possible to prevent Democrats from governing effectively……



     
    You asked. If you want to have an honest discussion about this stuff, as well as the accusations dating back almost to the founding of Israel, I am all for it.



    The why does not matter. There are civilians involved. That makes it a war crime.
    No, it doesn't. Why would a government that has no rule in an area be responsible on the level of war crimes accusations be responsible for a civilian population utilities that live under another elected government? That makes no sense unless you just really hate Jews and hold them to a higher standard than everyone else. But we know how the Left feels about the Jews.
    Wait, unless this is all the Marxist bull of 'oppressor vs oppressed'. That is what is actually happening.
    Is the US committing war crimes because there are hungry people in Mexico?
     
    No, it doesn't. Why would a government that has no rule in an area be responsible on the level of war crimes accusations be responsible for a civilian population utilities that live under another elected government? That makes no sense unless you just really hate Jews and hold them to a higher standard than everyone else. But we know how the Left feels about the Jews.
    Wait, unless this is all the Marxist bull of 'oppressor vs oppressed'. That is what is actually happening.
    Is the US committing war crimes because there are hungry people in Mexico?

    The US has not engaged in blockades that prevent food, water, and medicine from reaching a foreign country with whom they are engaged in a war. Again, if you want to have an actual conversation as opposed to engaging in foolish and idiotic games, I am here for it.
     
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    Who is keeping those civilians there? Their elected government. Why is Egypt not taking them in? Hamas uses its civilians for human sheilds and are preventing them from leaving. In a perfect world no civilians would be harmed but that is exactly what Hamas wants.
    Lots of excuses for savergery. I hold Israel to a higher standard than Hamas and don’t plan on quibbling about what that means.
     
    Who is keeping those civilians there? Their elected government. Why is Egypt not taking them in? Hamas uses its civilians for human sheilds and are preventing them from leaving. In a perfect world no civilians would be harmed but that is exactly what Hamas wants.
    >Who is keeping them there? Really Dude? Are you staying up on current events? 🙄 Israel and Egypt is not their government. The residents of Gaza are being kept in a kill box by those that surround them as they scurry around trying not to be blown up by the next Bunker Buster used on a civilian target. No one on this board is saying give Hamas a break, but they are saying give Palestinians a break, and by the accounts I’ve seen Israel is so full of retaliatory blood lust, it has the appearance of kill them all, including those that shake a first at us as they run away. 😬
     
    The US has not engaged in blockades that prevent food, water, and medicine from reaching a foreign country with whom they are engaged in a war. Again, if you want to have an actual conversation as opposed to engaging in foolish and idiotic games, I am here for it.
    Hamas has received internal aid plethora of times for the citizens of Gaza. What they do is horde it under the civilians for their jihad (see fuel for 'hospitals'.)
     
    >Who is keeping them there? Really Dude? Are you staying up on current events? 🙄 Israel and Egypt is not their government. The residents of Gaza are being kept in a kill box by those that surround them as they scurry around trying not to be blown up by the next Bunker Buster used on a civilian target. No one on this board is saying give Hamas a break, but they are saying give Palestinians a break, and by the accounts I’ve seen Israel is so full of retaliatory blood lust, it has the appearance of kill them all, including those that shake a first at us as they run away. 😬
    Yes, really.

    https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/...r-10-13-23/h_ad9fb74f40837ae2aca06c68bc57cd92
    Hamas on Friday told Palestinians living in Gaza not to leave their homes, according to a statement sent to media organizations.

    The armed group, which governs the territory, accused Israel of engaging in “psychological warfare” by sending messages that told Palestinian civilians and employees of international organizations to evacuate to the south.


    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/10/13/why-cant-people-leave-gaza/71170077007/
    The Israeli military called for the evacuation of Gaza City Friday ahead of an expected ground invasion against Hamas, which controls the territory. Israel’s order calls for people living in north Gaza to move south of the Wadi Gaza area, located in the middle of the Gaza strip. Hamas, which launched the deadly incursion into Israel on Oct. 7, told residents to remain in place.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...ng-people-evacuate-idf-103988919?id=103804516
    Early Sunday morning, Israel Defense Forces Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus went live on X and stated Hamas is blocking "the evacuation of civilians."

    IDF said Hamas issued warnings to residents in Gaza to ignore Israel’s evacuation notice that was issued Friday morning. When civilians did try to leave, Hamas "stopped civilians” and “convoys of Gazan civilians trying to flee," according to Conricus.

    But as Israel is fighting these religious zealots that use their own civilians as shields (kosher for their religion) they have opened and reopened, at the expense of Israeli lives, an evaction route for the civilians. Why wouldn't they the mean jews just kill them all if they were in the throws of blood lust?
    https://www.reuters.com/graphics/IS...orces-encircle-gaza-city-push-civilians-south

    On Monday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said they had reopened an evacuation route for Gazans fleeing south. IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus expressed hope that residents would do so, leaving northern Gaza relatively clear of civilians.

    “Then we will continue to fight and take the fight to Hamas wherever they are,” Conricus said in a regular briefing. “Underground, above ground, we'll be less limited or restricted because of the presence of civilians, and we'll be able to dismantle Hamas.”
     
    Hamas has received internal aid plethora of times for the citizens of Gaza. What they do is horde it under the civilians for their jihad (see fuel for 'hospitals'.)

    It took you nearly a month to come up with a response that doesn't address anything I said.
     
    The escalating battle between Texas Governor Greg Abbott and the Biden administration over the southern border is bringing warnings that a "civil war" is on the verge of breaking out in the U.S.

    Conservatives are speculating that a war could erupt as Abbott defends Texas' "constitutional right to self-defense" in response to President Joe Biden's immigration policies. On Thursday, the governor accused the White House of having "broken the compact between the United States and the States" after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that federal Border Patrol agents can remove razor wire installed at the border at Abbott's direction.

    Internet personality Terrence Williams responded to Abbott's statement by warning his 1.7 million followers that "CIVIL WAR IS COMING SOON" in a post on X (formerly Twitter).

    "You are trying to start a civil war," Williams told the president in a video posted online. "You got everybody in the state of Texas all bent up."

    Conservative commentator Carmine Sabia agreed, writing on X, "Joe Biden is about to start a Civil War over his treasonous handling of the border."

    On X, conservative podcaster Graham Allen questioned, "Has Civil War officially begun? Oklahoma and Texas are now defending America!"

    Abbott's GOP allies, who include Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, have expressed support for his position and vow to continue assisting Texas as migrants keep crossing the border at record-breaking levels. Migrant encounters reached an all-time high last month, when 302,000 incidents were documented.

    The feud between Abbott and the Biden administration has escalated in recent weeks as the governor has ramped up his Operation Lone Star and increased the law enforcement roles of the Texas Department of Public Safety and the Texas National Guard. Earlier this month, Texas authorities seized a public park on the shores of the Rio Grande in Eagle Pass and blocked Border Patrol agents from accessing roughly 2.3 miles of the southern border.

    A post shared by Chuds of TikTok, an account often critical of conservatives, showed one LinkedIn user asking, "Is this how Civil War erupts? The post then predicted the feud would push Biden to federalize the Texas National Guard, taking control away from Abbott, and eventually lead the president to declare martial law................


     
    The escalating battle between Texas Governor Greg Abbott and the Biden administration over the southern border is bringing warnings that a "civil war" is on the verge of breaking out in the U.S.

    Conservatives are speculating that a war could erupt as Abbott defends Texas' "constitutional right to self-defense" in response to President Joe Biden's immigration policies. On Thursday, the governor accused the White House of having "broken the compact between the United States and the States" after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that federal Border Patrol agents can remove razor wire installed at the border at Abbott's direction.

    Internet personality Terrence Williams responded to Abbott's statement by warning his 1.7 million followers that "CIVIL WAR IS COMING SOON" in a post on X (formerly Twitter).

    "You are trying to start a civil war," Williams told the president in a video posted online. "You got everybody in the state of Texas all bent up."

    Conservative commentator Carmine Sabia agreed, writing on X, "Joe Biden is about to start a Civil War over his treasonous handling of the border."

    On X, conservative podcaster Graham Allen questioned, "Has Civil War officially begun? Oklahoma and Texas are now defending America!"

    Abbott's GOP allies, who include Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, have expressed support for his position and vow to continue assisting Texas as migrants keep crossing the border at record-breaking levels. Migrant encounters reached an all-time high last month, when 302,000 incidents were documented.

    The feud between Abbott and the Biden administration has escalated in recent weeks as the governor has ramped up his Operation Lone Star and increased the law enforcement roles of the Texas Department of Public Safety and the Texas National Guard. Earlier this month, Texas authorities seized a public park on the shores of the Rio Grande in Eagle Pass and blocked Border Patrol agents from accessing roughly 2.3 miles of the southern border.

    A post shared by Chuds of TikTok, an account often critical of conservatives, showed one LinkedIn user asking, "Is this how Civil War erupts? The post then predicted the feud would push Biden to federalize the Texas National Guard, taking control away from Abbott, and eventually lead the president to declare martial law................



    What I'm concerned with is based on the fact that people act on what they honestly believe is real and true, which doesn't always align with actual reality and truth.

    I don't think there are enough people who want to actually fight in a civil war to sustain a civil war. There are a lot of people that are all in on chest thumping for a civil war, but if shooting starts, almost all of them will run as far a very safe distance from any armed conflict.

    However, I'm concerned that there are enough people, who honestly believe that there are enough people to wage a civil war, to carry out an assault they honestly believe will trigger a civil war. I'm beginning to think that megalomania might be deluding Abbott in to believing he can be the one that starts the civil war which will make him the champion and presumptive ruler of the new nation formed by the seceding states.

    Even if it's not Abbott, I think there's a decent chance that some individual or group is going to carry out an assault they believe will incite millions to rise up and unite against the US to either overthrow the government or to secede from the US.

    I think any armed conflict that might result from such an attack, would be very short lived.
     
    looks like a dick waving contest going on. abbot knows he cant win he is shut seeing how far he can push things and how much he can get away with. All Biden has to do is take back control of the national guard to take care of the issue. if any garden refuse the order well court martial will weed out the idiots.
     
    Welp, I guess the rest of the union is really in for it with these guys on the case….

     
    Russia, having failed its objective to be in Kyiv in 3 days, has decided it can still wage war on the West in other ways.

     
    It took you nearly a month to come up with a response that doesn't address anything I said.
    Yes, for a month I was feverishly working on a retort for you.
    I don't even know what we were discussing anymore.
     

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