Civil War 2? (1 Viewer)

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    Optimus Prime

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    Very sobering article
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    If you know people still in denial about the crisis of American democracy, kindly remove their heads from the sand long enough to receive this message: A startling new finding by one of the nation’s top authorities on foreign civil wars says we are on the cusp of our own.

    Barbara F. Walter, a political science professorat the University of California at San Diego, serves on a CIA advisory panel called the Political Instability Task Force that monitors countries around the world and predicts which of them are most at risk of deteriorating into violence.

    By law, the task force can’t assess what’s happening within the United States, but Walter, a longtime friend who has spent her career studying conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Rwanda, Angola, Nicaragua and elsewhere, applied the predictive techniques herself to this country.

    Her bottom line: “We are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.” She lays out the argument in detail in her must-read book, “How Civil Wars Start,” out in January. “No one wants to believe that their beloved democracy is in decline, or headed toward war,” she writes.

    But, “if you were an analyst in a foreign country looking at events in America — the same way you’d look at events in Ukraine or the Ivory Coast or Venezuela — you would go down a checklist, assessing each of the conditions that make civil war likely.

    And what you would find is that the United States, a democracy founded more than two centuries ago, has entered very dangerous territory.”

    Indeed, the United States has already gone through what the CIA identifies as the first two phases of insurgency — the “pre-insurgency” and “incipient conflict” phases — and only time will tell whether the final phase, “open insurgency,” began with the sacking of the Capitol by Donald Trump supporters on Jan. 6.

    Things deteriorated so dramatically under Trump, in fact, that the United States no longer technically qualifies as a democracy. Citing the Center for Systemic Peace’s “Polity” data set — the one the CIA task force has found to be most helpful in predicting instability and violence — Walter writes that the United States is now an “anocracy,” somewhere between a democracy and an autocratic state.

    U.S. democracy had received the Polity index’s top score of 10, or close to it, for much of its history. But in the five years of the Trump era, it tumbled precipitously into the anocracy zone; by the end of his presidency, the U.S. score had fallen to a 5, making the country a partial democracy for the first time since 1800.

    “We are no longer the world’s oldest continuous democracy,” Walter writes. “That honor is now held by Switzerland, followed by New Zealand, and then Canada. We are no longer a peer to nations like Canada, Costa Rica, and Japan, which are all rated a +10 on the Polity index.”…….

    Others have reached similar findings. The Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance put the United States on a list of “backsliding democracies” in a report last month.

    “The United States, the bastion of global democracy, fell victim to authoritarian tendencies itself," the report said.

    And a new survey by the academic consortium Bright Line Watch found that 17 percent of those who identify strongly as Republicans support the use of violence to restore Trump to power, and 39 percent favor doing everything possible to prevent Democrats from governing effectively……



     
    Yes, I know that was flippant but it proves my point.
    No it really doesn’t. Your heroes who tried to stop the peaceful transition of power all have received due process under the law. There are hundreds who still haven’t been arrested and will probably get away with it. The only people being detained were violent. They are not political prisoners or any other such stupidity.
     
    I shouldn't even respond to your idiotic question on how many civilians I deem as acceptable

    You didn't respond to my question. You went off on a tangent and avoided my question like always.

    You're a true Trump acolyte.
     
    It is complicated but to ask Israel to not completely and utterly destroy every last little Hamas rat in those tunnels is crazy to me. If another government/terrorist targeted and slaughtered American civilians, I wonder if everyone would think differently. You can say you would not, but I doubt it.

    You're so engrossed in your rhetoric that you are blindly unable to recognize that Israel will never be able to "completely and utterly destroy every last little Hamas rat". They are only creating more Hamas fighters by the minute.
     
    Not one. They voted for it and they are all for killing jews.

    What war crimes did Israel commit? I will wait

    How far back do you want me to go? Not that you actually care, but I will do my best to provide that information for you.
     
    Show me or at least give me possible war crime they committed. Doesn't even have to be provable, just a rumor will do.

    Just a rumor will do?

    Executing unarmed surrendered
    Cutting off food, gas, water, etc
    Use of white phosphorous
    Airstrikes on multiple refugee settlements
    Targeting journalists

    Anything else?
     
    Some people don't deserve to be treated as human. Just pretend they are an unvaccinated Maga republican that was in the capital on 1.6.

    Yes, I know that was flippant but it proves my point.

    Are you comparing the government affording people due process as they stand trial for crimes to mass shooters that dehumanize others to justify slaughtering them? You, Hamas, and the IDF have a lot in common.
     
    Does Palestaine want a 2 state solutions? From all of their positions, rhetoric and chants, the answer is 'no'.
    I don't honestly know the answer as to how the Palestinians feel about it.

    You do know Israel has not been in Gaza since 2005, right? They do provide water and power to Gaza since Hamas won't build civilian infrastructure, but then again, the people vote for them so they get what they get.
    I knew Israel provided/controlled water and power supplied to Gaza but I am not familiar with the backstory to it.

    Why do you think Hamas uses human shields? The debate we are having right now, is why. The more of their civilians they can show that are killed the more pressure from outside for a cease fire and then they can carry on and plan the next attack to slaughter the jews (to the cheers to a lot of people world sadly).
    I would agree.

    It is complicated but to ask Israel to not completely and utterly destroy every last little Hamas rat in those tunnels is crazy to me. If another government/terrorist targeted and slaughtered American civilians, I wonder if everyone would think differently. You can say you would not, but I doubt it.

    I am not opposed to Israel decapitating and decimating Hamas and I'm not saying they shouldn't or shouldn't try. I'm just saying that.. as an example I'm making up.. do you bomb and kill 2,000 civilians so that you can take out five high ranking members of Hamas? Is there another way to go about it that would accomplish the goal while minimizing civilian casualties? Maybe there isn't, but I don't think it's wrong to at least question it.

    And on top of that, there are always the unintended consequences involved in these things. Assuredly - even if Israel could accomplish the goal of absolutely eliminating Hamas - there will be individuals radicalized against Israel who otherwise would not have been because their mother/brothers/cousins/etc were killed by an Israeli bombing. And the more that civilians are killed in this fashion means the wider the reach is on radicalization and the more you're going to be dealing with this same thing in the future. It's a cycle that's never actually going to end because post-WWII they we're stupid enough to set all of this in motion.
     
    I don't honestly know the answer as to how the Palestinians feel about it.


    I knew Israel provided/controlled water and power supplied to Gaza but I am not familiar with the backstory to it.


    I would agree.



    I am not opposed to Israel decapitating and decimating Hamas and I'm not saying they shouldn't or shouldn't try. I'm just saying that.. as an example I'm making up.. do you bomb and kill 2,000 civilians so that you can take out five high ranking members of Hamas? Is there another way to go about it that would accomplish the goal while minimizing civilian casualties? Maybe there isn't, but I don't think it's wrong to at least question it.

    And on top of that, there are always the unintended consequences involved in these things. Assuredly - even if Israel could accomplish the goal of absolutely eliminating Hamas - there will be individuals radicalized against Israel who otherwise would not have been because their mother/brothers/cousins/etc were killed by an Israeli bombing. And the more that civilians are killed in this fashion means the wider the reach is on radicalization and the more you're going to be dealing with this same thing in the future. It's a cycle that's never actually going to end because post-WWII they we're stupid enough to set all of this in motion.
    From their track record, and Israel isn't stupid, they know a lot of the west has been poisoned against them (justly or not- that is another debate) they have and are taking extreme measures, way more than any other military has ever done to limit civilian causalities. So, I do believe that, in your made up scenario, that if there is a way to spare civilian life then they do. Again, they have broadcast their moves in order to get civilians out and, a I posted above, have given up Israel lives to open an evacuation route for civilians when the civilians own 'government' is attempting to block them so they don't lose the propaganda optics and the human shields.

    I also find it odd that they world and especially the UN is shouting for a cease fire while because of civilian casualties but is silent on the civilian devastation and famine in Yemen. Maybe because it is not Jews doing the killing and when Jews defend themselves people get really worked up.
     
    Are you comparing the government affording people due process as they stand trial for crimes to mass shooters that dehumanize others to justify slaughtering them? You, Hamas, and the IDF have a lot in common.
    No. Their actions on 10.7 is the justification to slaughter them and anyone that gives them aid.
     
    Just a rumor will do?

    Executing unarmed surrendered
    Cutting off food, gas, water, etc
    Use of white phosphorous
    Airstrikes on multiple refugee settlements
    Targeting journalists

    Anything else?
    You got the rumors down for sure.

    So, the food, gas and water thing, although not true, but I have to ask, why do you think Israel would do something like that (lets just pretend they have)?
     
    You're so engrossed in your rhetoric that you are blindly unable to recognize that Israel will never be able to "completely and utterly destroy every last little Hamas rat". They are only creating more Hamas fighters by the minute.
    I don't think you are wrong on they are creating more fighters. Ignorance often creates grass root militia movements, would you agree?
     
    From their track record, and Israel isn't stupid, they know a lot of the west has been poisoned against them (justly or not- that is another debate) they have and are taking extreme measures, way more than any other military has ever done to limit civilian causalities. So, I do believe that, in your made up scenario, that if there is a way to spare civilian life then they do. Again, they have broadcast their moves in order to get civilians out and, a I posted above, have given up Israel lives to open an evacuation route for civilians when the civilians own 'government' is attempting to block them so they don't lose the propaganda optics and the human shields.I also find it odd that they world and especially the UN is shouting for a cease fire while because of civilian casualties but is silent on the civilian devastation and famine in Yemen. Maybe because it is not Jews doing the killing and when Jews defend themselves people get really worked up.
    I would say that's fair enough at the least (I'm unfamiliar with the Yemen stuff - I do not know what's happening and I don't know what the US is or isn't supporting) and that I'm really just participating in a discussion here and do not hold any concrete or unchangeable opinions related to most of this beyond the idea that it's all forked and that the powers-that-be post WWII royally screwed the pooch.
     
    From their track record, and Israel isn't stupid, they know a lot of the west has been poisoned against them (justly or not- that is another debate) they have and are taking extreme measures, way more than any other military has ever done to limit civilian causalities. So, I do believe that, in your made up scenario, that if there is a way to spare civilian life then they do. Again, they have broadcast their moves in order to get civilians out and, a I posted above, have given up Israel lives to open an evacuation route for civilians when the civilians own 'government' is attempting to block them so they don't lose the propaganda optics and the human shields.

    I also find it odd that they world and especially the UN is shouting for a cease fire while because of civilian casualties but is silent on the civilian devastation and famine in Yemen. Maybe because it is not Jews doing the killing and when Jews defend themselves people get really worked up.

    This is today's episode of a show I like to call "Just Because You Aren't Seeing It Doesn't Mean You Are Right: How To Google."
     
    You got the rumors down for sure.

    You asked. If you want to have an honest discussion about this stuff, as well as the accusations dating back almost to the founding of Israel, I am all for it.

    So, the food, gas and water thing, although not true, but I have to ask, why do you think Israel would do something like that (lets just pretend they have)?

    The why does not matter. There are civilians involved. That makes it a war crime.
     

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