Civil War 2? (1 Viewer)

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    Optimus Prime

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    Very sobering article
    ================
    If you know people still in denial about the crisis of American democracy, kindly remove their heads from the sand long enough to receive this message: A startling new finding by one of the nation’s top authorities on foreign civil wars says we are on the cusp of our own.

    Barbara F. Walter, a political science professorat the University of California at San Diego, serves on a CIA advisory panel called the Political Instability Task Force that monitors countries around the world and predicts which of them are most at risk of deteriorating into violence.

    By law, the task force can’t assess what’s happening within the United States, but Walter, a longtime friend who has spent her career studying conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Rwanda, Angola, Nicaragua and elsewhere, applied the predictive techniques herself to this country.

    Her bottom line: “We are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.” She lays out the argument in detail in her must-read book, “How Civil Wars Start,” out in January. “No one wants to believe that their beloved democracy is in decline, or headed toward war,” she writes.

    But, “if you were an analyst in a foreign country looking at events in America — the same way you’d look at events in Ukraine or the Ivory Coast or Venezuela — you would go down a checklist, assessing each of the conditions that make civil war likely.

    And what you would find is that the United States, a democracy founded more than two centuries ago, has entered very dangerous territory.”

    Indeed, the United States has already gone through what the CIA identifies as the first two phases of insurgency — the “pre-insurgency” and “incipient conflict” phases — and only time will tell whether the final phase, “open insurgency,” began with the sacking of the Capitol by Donald Trump supporters on Jan. 6.

    Things deteriorated so dramatically under Trump, in fact, that the United States no longer technically qualifies as a democracy. Citing the Center for Systemic Peace’s “Polity” data set — the one the CIA task force has found to be most helpful in predicting instability and violence — Walter writes that the United States is now an “anocracy,” somewhere between a democracy and an autocratic state.

    U.S. democracy had received the Polity index’s top score of 10, or close to it, for much of its history. But in the five years of the Trump era, it tumbled precipitously into the anocracy zone; by the end of his presidency, the U.S. score had fallen to a 5, making the country a partial democracy for the first time since 1800.

    “We are no longer the world’s oldest continuous democracy,” Walter writes. “That honor is now held by Switzerland, followed by New Zealand, and then Canada. We are no longer a peer to nations like Canada, Costa Rica, and Japan, which are all rated a +10 on the Polity index.”…….

    Others have reached similar findings. The Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance put the United States on a list of “backsliding democracies” in a report last month.

    “The United States, the bastion of global democracy, fell victim to authoritarian tendencies itself," the report said.

    And a new survey by the academic consortium Bright Line Watch found that 17 percent of those who identify strongly as Republicans support the use of violence to restore Trump to power, and 39 percent favor doing everything possible to prevent Democrats from governing effectively……



     
    Yes, for a month I was feverishly working on a retort for you.
    I don't even know what we were discussing anymore.

    Retorts are generally sharp and witty. That's why I said 'response'. And this one took two months. I look forward to your response on Cinco de Mayo.
     
    Retorts are generally sharp and witty. That's why I said 'response'. And this one took two months. I look forward to your response on Cinco de Mayo.
    Look, I think you are fun to talk with too, but you keeping track of when I am online and if I chat with you is getting a little stalkerish. Maybe lets just go back a step or two for a while. It is not you, it is me.
     
    Look, I think you are fun to talk with too, but you keeping track of when I am online and if I chat with you is getting a little stalkerish. Maybe lets just go back a step or two for a while. It is not you, it is me.

    This might be the most true thing you've ever said. All I was doing was pointing out that you never stick around to defend your posts, and when you do come back, you never address the substance of the posts you reply to. To be far, though, you don't do that when you are here, either.
     
    This might be the most true thing you've ever said. All I was doing was pointing out that you never stick around to defend your posts, and when you do come back, you never address the substance of the posts you reply to. To be far, though, you don't do that when you are here, either.
    So, did you have something to discuss or more personal attacks? And generally my posts dont need to be defended as they are common sense as of 10 mins ago.
     
    So, did you have something to discuss or more personal attacks? And generally my posts dont need to be defended as they are common sense as of 10 mins ago.

    I did, but you ignored it repeatedly. It's what you always do.
     

    The upcoming release of A24's Civil War during a contentious presidential election year comes amid worrying about the prospect of an actual civil war - or, at least, real-life political violence - and has some questioning the movie's timing.

    The film from acclaimed writer-director Alex Garland (Ex Machina) imagines a near-future dystopia where the United States has been torn apart under the authoritarian ruled of a three-term president (Nick Offerman). The story follows a journalist (Kirsten Dunst) as she makes her way across this freshly divided states of America (trailer below).

    Civil War hasn't been seen yet by the media or audiences (its world premiere is next week at the South by Southwest Film & TV Festival), so criticism of its content is arguably premature and - at minimum - lacks considerable context. The film's trailers suggest Civil War isn't some obvious left-wing/right-wing polemic given that Texas and California are allies in its fictional conflict.

    Still, given the Jan. 6 riots that attempted to de-certify the 2020 presidential election and the likelihood of a Joe Biden and Donald Trump re-match, some find it impossible not to see the movie as a pointed commentary on our current divisive times - regardless of its fictional premise - and question whether its release is appropriate coming seven months before the presidential election.

    The bulk of such reactions to Civil War seem to come from the left side of the political spectrum, and their take goes like this: Regardless of the film's (presumably pro-unity) message, the film is uncomfortably timely and its "us vs. us" warfare will become MAGA fantasy fuel.

    "The idea of another American civil war happening today actually keeps me up at night," wrote one reader on an American Civil War subreddit. "This is a movie that I want to keep far away from. Even if it's based on a political scenario so far removed from our own. I just do not want to entertain the notion of something so horrible."

    "A movie about a second American Civil War in an election year in which the second American Civil War is a serious concern among law-enforcement and rational people alike?" wrote another.

    Opined another: "There are other Timothy McVeighs out there who will be like ‘[this movie is] exactly what this country needs' … The potential danger is that [right-wing] groups are not known for media literacy or nuance. And a psychotic gang of rednecks committing terrorism [in the film] to ‘own the libs' might be obvious criticism to us, but might be interpreted as a role model to MAGA groups if not portrayed carefully.'"

    "I know a ton of people (probably myself included) who don't want to see it because its just kind of uncomfortable to watch a movie that we might be living in 4-5 years," added another. "Unless this movie does something very clever with the premise, it's just political porn essentially. Using political tensions going on right now as a crutch to get people emotionally invested."...............

     
    Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has raised concerns about the future of the United States, saying the current political climate has created a one-in-three chance for “civil war.”

    In an interview with The Financial Times this week, Mr Dalio described how the polarization of American politics has contributed to an extremely “turbulent” time in history.

    “We are now on the brink,” Mr Dalio told the news outlet, adding that he sees a 35 to 40 percent probability of a second civil war.

    He clarified that the “civil war” he sees is not one where people “grab guns and start shooting” but one where people stop seeing the middle ground in politics.

    But he imagines, “People move to different states that are more aligned with what they want and they don’t follow the decisions of federal authorities of the opposite political persuasion,” Mr Dalio said.…..


     
    I think that number will climb a lot after the election.
     
    I think that number will climb a lot after the election.

    Regardless of how it goes. I mostly see Dems moving, though. I have to hand it to my GOP brethren. Y'all don't leave, you burrow in and find ways to wield power despite being in the minority. It's impressive how control of a state legislature that's willing to go completely off the rails can guarantee control of a state almost in perpetuity, no matter how the demographics change. Gerrymandering and voter suppression/denial are powerful force multipliers which Republicans wield with brazenness and skill.
     
    In a simple reply: tribal
    I don’t really think so. People’s actual tribe is family and friends. I don’t know a family that is in 100% agreement politically. I am not moving away from my family and friends over politics.
     
    I don’t really think so. People’s actual tribe is family and friends. I don’t know a family that is in 100% agreement politically. I am not moving away from my family and friends over politics.

    Mr Wade moved away from a city that loves him in order to raise his trans child in a welcoming atmosphere. Women will move away from states that see them as disposable incubators.
     
    Regardless of how it goes. I mostly see Dems moving, though. I have to hand it to my GOP brethren. Y'all don't leave, you burrow in and find ways to wield power despite being in the minority. It's impressive how control of a state legislature that's willing to go completely off the rails can guarantee control of a state almost in perpetuity, no matter how the demographics change. Gerrymandering and voter suppression/denial are powerful force multipliers which Republicans wield with brazenness and skill.
    People with moral conviction and values tend to want to fight for what they feel is right.
     

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