Midterm projections. (5 Viewers)

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    SamAndreas

    It's Not my Fault
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    I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

    Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

    Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

    But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

    That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

    :)
     
    AZ going more blue than expected so far.

    Screenshot_20221108_212453.jpg
     
    This seems to be what's happening. Which is sort of a tepid win for Democrats given the economic issues and Biden's relative unpopularity.

    Still a lot of races to be called and GOP candidates will 'gain ground' so to speak as most early returns include Democratic-leaning absentee/mail-in votes.
    Thank you for mentioning the absentee/mail in votes.
    I was not considering that when looking at the results of undecided contests.
     
    Opinion, from someone who is an independent, I think:

     
    McMullin trailing Lee by about 10% with half the vote in... guessing he couldn't motivate enough Democrats to show up to the polls to vote for him.
     
    McMullin trailing Lee by about 10% with half the vote in... guessing he couldn't motivate enough Democrats to show up to the polls to vote for him.
    In that race it wasn't all about getting the Dems, it was more about getting sensible R's to vote for him.
     

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