What happens to the Republican Party now? (3 Viewers)

[MT15]

This election nonsense by Trump may end up splitting up the Republican Party. I just don’t see how the one third (?) who are principled conservatives can stay in the same party with Trump sycophants who are willing to sign onto the TX Supreme Court case.

We also saw the alt right types chanting “destroy the GOP” in Washington today because they didn’t keep Trump in power. I think the Q types will also hold the same ill will toward the traditional Republican Party. In fact its quite possible that all the voters who are really in a Trump personality cult will also blame the GOP for his loss. It’s only a matter of time IMO before Trump himself gets around to blaming the GOP.

There is some discussion of this on Twitter. What do you all think?

 

[bird]

Eventually people start dropping the knives when police say to or stop attacking people with knives to begin with.

Wow, stunningly naive.

 

[SamAndreas]

Eventually people start dropping the knives when police say to or stop attacking people with knives to begin with.

Let's get this back to politics.

Here's something interesting. On the surface it may look like any old tweet. What's unique is it was reposed by Oksii33 and the following up posts are by NAFO fellows. This is where American and Ukrainian politics and war mix. More than one war, many Americans with NAFO fellowship, with a vote in this election are there.

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It ends with a MAGA operative noticing the conversation posting:



Followed up by an Israeli American liberal voter showing Gooner the door, says be gone. Meaning MAGA be gone.

I looked into her replies and find a lot of activity, part Republican, part liberal, all Israeli, American voter who is not voting for the Criminal or his third party alternate Jr.

x.com

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[Saint Jack]

I do have one question about the GOP’s future.
Just by Trump being such a cultural figure for so long, is there even a candidate for the future, be it 2028, 2032, or 2036; that can rally the party to become normal again?

I ask this because demographics are changing. The GOP hasn’t won the popular vote in forever.
And when you can’t win the popular vote, you’re always gonna be on the razors edge.

 

[bird]

I do have one question about the GOP’s future.
Just by Trump being such a cultural figure for so long, is there even a candidate for the future, be it 2028, 2032, or 2036; that can rally the party to become normal again?

I ask this because demographics are changing. The GOP hasn’t won the popular vote in forever.
And when you can’t win the popular vote, you’re always gonna be on the razors edge.

Difficult to say.

I certainly would not be surprised to see a person of Spanish descent or a Black person there at some point. The same applies for a woman. Group members are not arbitrarily monolithic on all points and people can be part of different groups on different topics.

Imo, they would need to find someone who can actually stay somewhat away from the social issues or from divisive issues while focusing on a vision of the country that can appeal to a larger percentage of voters. There are enough independents and “never Trumpers” that would go for that. Basically they must drag themselves closer to the center.

 

[SamAndreas]

I do have one question about the GOP’s future.
Just by Trump being such a cultural figure for so long, is there even a candidate for the future, be it 2028, 2032, or 2036; that can rally the party to become normal again?

I ask this because demographics are changing. The GOP hasn’t won the popular vote in forever.
And when you can’t win the popular vote, you’re always gonna be on the razors edge.

Saint Jack I'm twice your age. But I'm not that old. I can remember when the GOP last won the popular vote. There will be a time they will win it again because they will change a bit if they have to. IF THEY HAVE TO.

If we win this time, next time they will have slightly changed because they had to change.

 

[Saint Jack]

Saint Jack I'm twice your age. But I'm not that old. I can remember when the GOP last won the popular vote. There will be a time they will win it again because they will change a bit if they have to. IF THEY HAVE TO.

If we win this time, next time they will have slightly changed because they had to change.

But I do see the GOP base shrinking.
Again, small sample size, but I see it with my friends.
Everyone are sons of Republicans, but have turned away. Especially all our wives/girlfriends.
And just for reference, I am 33.

 

[Greg]

I do have one question about the GOP’s future.
Just by Trump being such a cultural figure for so long, is there even a candidate for the future, be it 2028, 2032, or 2036; that can rally the party to become normal again?

I ask this because demographics are changing. The GOP hasn’t won the popular vote in forever.
And when you can’t win the popular vote, you’re always gonna be on the razors edge.

Bush 04 was last popular vote win. Sounds like a long time but there’s only been one republican term since then. Trump has a chance to win the popular vote this time.

Candidates aren’t campaigning to win the popular vote since that’s not what wins the election. But the party has better odds after Trump is gone because he has a high floor and a low ceiling.

 

[Saint Jack]

Bush 04 was last popular vote win. Sounds like a long time but there’s only been one republican term since then. Trump has a chance to win the popular vote this time.

Candidates aren’t campaigning to win the popular vote since that’s not what wins the election. But the party has better odds after Trump is gone because he has a high floor and a low ceiling.

But the popular vote does show demographic shifts. When it’s been two decades since the last GOP popular vote, that is a problem.
It may not be this election cycle, but if the GOP loses one of their blood red states, it’s over.

And the one thing I’m sure is that Trump loses the popular vote. Again. For a third time.

 

[bird]

Bush 04 was last popular vote win. Sounds like a long time but there’s only been one republican term since then. Trump has a chance to win the popular vote this time.

Candidates aren’t campaigning to win the popular vote since that’s not what wins the election. But the party has better odds after Trump is gone because he has a high floor and a low ceiling.

They are campaigning aimed at certain demographics. Which for Republicans trends older. There is an inherent danger in that strategy as your demographic ages out of life more quickly.

 

[faceman]

Bush 04 was last popular vote win. Sounds like a long time but there’s only been one republican term since then. Trump has a chance to win the popular vote this time.

Candidates aren’t campaigning to win the popular vote since that’s not what wins the election. But the party has better odds after Trump is gone because he has a high floor and a low ceiling.

Trump has a chance to win the electoral vote. There is no way in heck he wins the popular vote. The women will be voting
in November. The majority won't be voting for Trump.

 

[SamAndreas]

Bush 04 was last popular vote win. Sounds like a long time but there’s only been one republican term since then. Trump has a chance to win the popular vote this time.

Candidates aren’t campaigning to win the popular vote since that’s not what wins the election. But the party has better odds after Trump is gone because he has a high floor and a low ceiling.

And has bats in his belfry.

 

[MT15]

Eventually people start dropping the knives when police say to or stop attacking people with knives to begin with.

Really? How is that working out? How many decades is eventually?

 

[MT15]

Especially all our wives/girlfriends.

This is what everyone crowing about Trump hasn’t really dealt with. Women are not turning into Trump voters, and Vance only makes things worse. This GOP ticket is the worst ticket for women they probably could have come up with. IMO, anyway.

 

[MT15]

Trump has a chance to win the popular vote this time.

Hard no, he doesn’t.

 

[SFIDC3]

The GOP is gonna win. The unity I am seeing tonight is beyond my expectation. The "regular people" who spoke made quite an impression too. I think Biden has no chance
....and swap him with Harris and it will still be a Trump victory anyway.

Red wave Steve is at it again, the pathetic part is that he doesn't remember what happened the last time he predicted this......I hope White Christian nationalist fascists like Steve continue to underestimate the power of the women's vote, especially as they continue to try and strip away their rights.....rock on TROLL!!!!!!!

 

[Optimus Prime]

One after another, Republican leaders painted a dire picture of America from the Republican National Convention stage in Milwaukee on Tuesday, suggesting the nation is awash in violent crime driven by an "invasion" of "illegal aliens" and "Chinese fentanyl" at the southern border.

Echoing many of the evening's other speakers, House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana said Republicans were the "law-and-order team," while President Biden and Democrats intent on a "borderless, lawless" future were responsible for "dramatic increases" in violence and drugs in the country.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas said that "every damn day," Americans are killed and raped by illegal immigrants that Democrats let into the country. "Every damn day," the crowd chanted back in a chorus.

The crime picture in the United States is much more nuanced than suggested, according to federal and state data, which vary across the country and from city to city.

For example, Los Angeles officials in January touted a large drop in violent crime in 2023, compared with the year prior — with killings down 17% and shootings down 10%, according to Los Angeles police data.

But just last month, Gov. Gavin Newsom said he would quadruple the number of California Highway Patrol shifts in Oakland, where city data last year showed violent crime had increased 21%, robbery by 38% and vehicle theft 43%.

The clearest recent trend in national crime data — which Democrats have cited to rebut the Republican claims and which Republicans dismiss as misleading — is that violent crime is down.

Jeff Asher, a crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics, has studied national crime trends for years. In an interview with The Times, he said the Republican talking points about rising violent crime "would have been better in 2021 and 2022 than they are in 2023 and 2024."

Violent crime — including homicides — did increase, and substantially, in those earlier years amid the social upheaval associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Asher said there has been a clear decline in the two most recent years, according to available federal data and state-by-state figures he has gathered.

"All of the data we have points to — especially in regards to murder — a really large decline last year," Asher said, and "so far this year an even larger decline."

The declines are "not everywhere, but across a large swath of American cities," and "to, in some places, pre-COVID levels," he said.

"Reasonable people can disagree on who's to credit for it, what's the cause, what policies are working, what policies aren't working, where is it coincidental," Asher said. "The evidence of declining gun violence and murder in the U.S., though, is incontrovertible."

Declines in both blue and red states are contributing to the improved picture nationwide, Asher said.

California saw 1,892 homicides reported in 2023, which was "roughly in line" with annual figures seen from 2016 to 2019 — and well below the state's historic high for homicides and its levels during the peak of the pandemic.

In 1992, the city of Los Angeles alone saw 1,092 homicides. In 2022, there were 392. In 2023, there were 327.

In 2019, there were 253 homicides in L.A., so the recent decline has still not brought the city back to its pre-COVID levels of violence.

As for crime by immigrants, Cruz and others cited a handful of specific cases to bolster the claim that such incidents are common.

Again, the data suggest a more nuanced picture.

Ran Abramitzky, a Stanford University economics professor, helped lead a nationally representative study of incarceration rates for immigrants and U.S.-born citizens from 1870 to 2020. The study included all immigrants, not only those in the country illegally.

It found, Abramitzky said in an email to The Times, that "as a group, immigrants have had lower incarceration rates than the US-born for 150 years."

It also found that "relative to the US-born, immigrants' incarceration rates have declined since 1960," and "immigrants today are 60% less likely to be incarcerated" — and "30% less likely even relative to US-born whites." That was true for immigrants from all regions, he said...........................

Republicans say Biden's America is awash in immigrant-driven crime. What do the data say?

Republicans on Tuesday night described an America awash in crime, including from immigrants without legal status. What do the data say?

www.latimes.com

MSN

 

[Optimus Prime]

WASHINGTON (AP) — The leader of a conservative think tank on Thursday misrepresented partisan differences in political violence in the United States, wrongly suggesting that people associated with left-wing causes commit more violence than those on the right.

HERITAGE FOUNDATION PRESIDENT KEVIN ROBERTS: “Most political violence in the last 25 years has been initiated by the left."

THE FACTS: Roberts' remarks came in response to questions about comments earlier this month in which he said the country was in the midst of "the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”

He told reporters Thursday that he considers himself a historian of the American Revolution and that his comments about a second revolution were a reference to “ambitious policy plans” that Republicans have should former President Donald Trump win the 2024 election. Roberts' organization has proposed a sweeping overhaul of the federal government known as Project 2025.

Roberts said his comments about political violence were meant to be seen in the historical context.

A deeper look at the available evidence, however, shows that right-wing groups have committed more acts of political violence in recent U.S. history.

Two years ago a team of researchers from four universities examined court records and other data relating to 3,500 extremists active in the U.S. between 1948 and 2022. The individuals were split into three groups — left wing, right wing and relating to Islamic extremism. While some in the database had committed violent acts, others had raised money for extremist groups, volunteered or spoken out in favor of them.

Right-wing extremists were just as likely to commit violent acts as those motivated by Islamic extremism, the researchers found. Left-wing extremists were a distant third.

Gary LaFree, a University of Maryland professor and one of the co-authors of the research, said violent acts by left-wing groups have been diminishing for decades following violence by radical groups like the Weather Underground, a far-left militant organization founded in 1969..............

FACT FOCUS: Heritage Foundation leader wrong to say most political violence is committed by the left

The leader of a conservative think tank claims that most recent political violence in the U.S. has been caused by left-wing extremists, but the data paints a different picture.

apnews.com

 

[MT15]

WASHINGTON (AP) — The leader of a conservative think tank on Thursday misrepresented partisan differences in political violence in the United States, wrongly suggesting that people associated with left-wing causes commit more violence than those on the right.

HERITAGE FOUNDATION PRESIDENT KEVIN ROBERTS: “Most political violence in the last 25 years has been initiated by the left."

THE FACTS: Roberts' remarks came in response to questions about comments earlier this month in which he said the country was in the midst of "the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”

He told reporters Thursday that he considers himself a historian of the American Revolution and that his comments about a second revolution were a reference to “ambitious policy plans” that Republicans have should former President Donald Trump win the 2024 election. Roberts' organization has proposed a sweeping overhaul of the federal government known as Project 2025.

Roberts said his comments about political violence were meant to be seen in the historical context.

A deeper look at the available evidence, however, shows that right-wing groups have committed more acts of political violence in recent U.S. history.

Two years ago a team of researchers from four universities examined court records and other data relating to 3,500 extremists active in the U.S. between 1948 and 2022. The individuals were split into three groups — left wing, right wing and relating to Islamic extremism. While some in the database had committed violent acts, others had raised money for extremist groups, volunteered or spoken out in favor of them.

Right-wing extremists were just as likely to commit violent acts as those motivated by Islamic extremism, the researchers found. Left-wing extremists were a distant third.

Gary LaFree, a University of Maryland professor and one of the co-authors of the research, said violent acts by left-wing groups have been diminishing for decades following violence by radical groups like the Weather Underground, a far-left militant organization founded in 1969..............

FACT FOCUS: Heritage Foundation leader wrong to say most political violence is committed by the left

The leader of a conservative think tank claims that most recent political violence in the U.S. has been caused by left-wing extremists, but the data paints a different picture.

apnews.com

Their lying reaches the level of gaslighting. All the damn time.