What happens to the Republican Party now? (1 Viewer)

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    MT15

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    This election nonsense by Trump may end up splitting up the Republican Party. I just don’t see how the one third (?) who are principled conservatives can stay in the same party with Trump sycophants who are willing to sign onto the TX Supreme Court case.

    We also saw the alt right types chanting “destroy the GOP” in Washington today because they didn’t keep Trump in power. I think the Q types will also hold the same ill will toward the traditional Republican Party. In fact its quite possible that all the voters who are really in a Trump personality cult will also blame the GOP for his loss. It’s only a matter of time IMO before Trump himself gets around to blaming the GOP.

    There is some discussion of this on Twitter. What do you all think?



     
    You know, I don’t really remember any D Senators saying a word when Trump drew Cannon in the FL MAL case. Now, though, this is a big problem. What a pitiful, small, terrified little man.

    Edited: I am now informed that the sad little man voted to confirm the judge in question, lol.

     
    Last edited:
    You know, I don’t really remember any D Senators saying a word when Trump drew Cannon in the FL MAL case. Now, though, this is a big problem. What a pitiful, small, terrified little man.

    Edited: I am now informed that the sad little man voted to confirm the judge in question, lol.


    Obviously, Graham and other Republicans worried about Trump being tried in DC are worried that he will be convicted. They are not worried about Trump being convicted for Trump's sake. They are worried that Trump will rat them all out and burn them all down with himself the moment that he's convicted.

    Those who are defending Trump the loudest and most absurdly were part of the conspiracy and they know if Trump goes down for his role in it, he's dragging them all down with him.
     
    Nice rhetoric from DeSantis, totally a normal human being. 🙄

     
    Not sure what thread to put this in
    =================

    Nearly 70 per cent of Republicans believe that President Joe Biden is not a legitimately elected president, according to a new CNN poll.

    The survey showed that 69 per cent of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters do not think Mr Biden is a legitimately elected president, up six points from earlier this year.

    This comes despite the fact that no evidence of significant voter fraud has proven that Mr Biden’s election was anything other than legitimate.

    Furthermore, 39 per cent of Republican-aligned adults believe there is solid evidence to show that the 2020 presidential election was not legitimate, while 30 per cent say they merely suspect that Mr Biden did not legitimately win the election.

    By comparison, 61 per cent of Americans overall say that Mr Biden won the 2020 presidential election, whereas 38 per cent say that he did not.…..

     
    The two factors which will ultimately decide the 2024 election are that Trump will drive Democratic voters to the polls and that he will not be able to win over moderate and independent voters. Those should be the factors that decide the election, anyway.

    If the economy falters or something else drastic occurs the dynamics can change and anything can happen. Biden won the deciding states of Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona by a combined 75,000 or so votes. That's practically nothing and if those four states are flipped Trump would've retained the Presidency. Easily could have gone the other way there.. it just didn't.

    It cannot just be assumed that Trump will be defeated this go around and the Biden team will really need to run a smart campaign. Even though it's sort of unbelievable, it definitely does not feel as if it's just a foregone conclusion that Trump cannot regain the presidency. It could happen, and that's the position from which everyone who matters in this needs to operate from.
     
    The two factors which will ultimately decide the 2024 election are that Trump will drive Democratic voters to the polls and that he will not be able to win over moderate and independent voters. Those should be the factors that decide the election, anyway.

    If the economy falters or something else drastic occurs the dynamics can change and anything can happen. Biden won the deciding states of Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona by a combined 75,000 or so votes. That's practically nothing and if those four states are flipped Trump would've retained the Presidency. Easily could have gone the other way there.. it just didn't.

    It cannot just be assumed that Trump will be defeated this go around and the Biden team will really need to run a smart campaign. Even though it's sort of unbelievable, it definitely does not feel as if it's just a foregone conclusion that Trump cannot regain the presidency. It could happen, and that's the position from which everyone who matters in this needs to operate from.
    I agree. It's like a reverse truism. If the majority of people think Trump has a chance to win, Trump will lose. If the majority of people think Trump doesn't have a chance to win, Trump will win.
     
    Don't see it.

    When there are only two choices again, Trump will have no chance to make up enough voters due to:

    1) R's Dying - age and Covid. This can't be overstated. Hundreds of thousands of his voters have died since 2020.
    2) I's Fed up - his legal troubles are going to hurt with independents; who support the investigations according to surveys. He has to win independents, not just hold the ones he had.

    3) Youth vote - this too is understated at this point. Hundreds of thousands of new voters are of age. And they vote. And oh man are they pissed. Abortion is going to be their death knell.
     
    Don't see it.

    When there are only two choices again, Trump will have no chance to make up enough voters due to:

    1) R's Dying - age and Covid. This can't be overstated. Hundreds of thousands of his voters have died since 2020.
    2) I's Fed up - his legal troubles are going to hurt with independents; who support the investigations according to surveys. He has to win independents, not just hold the ones he had.

    3) Youth vote - this too is understated at this point. Hundreds of thousands of new voters are of age. And they vote. And oh man are they pissed. Abortion is going to be their death knell.
    I don't see it either.. I am just very afraid of the notion taking over that he cannot win. I find that to be dangerous and I just think it needs to be viewed with the same desperation to win as 2020 was.
     
    Don't see it.

    When there are only two choices again, Trump will have no chance to make up enough voters due to:

    1) R's Dying - age and Covid. This can't be overstated. Hundreds of thousands of his voters have died since 2020.
    2) I's Fed up - his legal troubles are going to hurt with independents; who support the investigations according to surveys. He has to win independents, not just hold the ones he had.

    3) Youth vote - this too is understated at this point. Hundreds of thousands of new voters are of age. And they vote. And oh man are they pissed. Abortion is going to be their death knell.

    It isn’t only young voters who are extremely pissed off about abortion. This old woman is livid.

    But I do agree that Dems need to pretend like it’s a close race.
    It's not about those trends on a national level. It's not even about those trends on an overall percentage of the population.

    It's all about whether or not those trends significantly altered the traditional voting patterns specifically in states that are traditionally tight races like Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona were the margins of victory are only around 10 thousand votes or less.

    The reason polling shows a tight race right now is not because of popular vote, it's because Trump is polling closely to Biden in the pivotal states that are needed to get an Electoral College win.

    It's a given that Trump will not come anywhere close to winning the popular vote. He'll probably lose that by millions more than he previously had.

    The unfortunate reality is that he's polling well enough to have a legitimate shot at winning the Electoral College vote which would win him the election.

    If the majority of voters make the mistake of thinking Trump has no chance at being elected President, then voting turnout history indicates he will most likely win the election by a very narrow margin of Electoral College votes and while also losing the popular vote by a lot.
     
    It isn’t only young voters who are extremely pissed off about abortion. This old woman is livid.

    But I do agree that Dems need to pretend like it’s a close race.
    Fair.

    I don't think there will be any lack of motivation on the Left if Trump is the nominee.
     
    It's not about those trends on a national level. It's not even about those trends on an overall percentage of the population.

    It's all about whether or not those trends significantly altered the traditional voting patterns specifically in states that are traditionally tight races like Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona were the margins of victory are only around 10 thousand votes or less.

    The reason polling shows a tight race right now is not because of popular vote, it's because Trump is polling closely to Biden in the pivotal states that are needed to get an Electoral College win.

    It's a given that Trump will not come anywhere close to winning the popular vote. He'll probably lose that by millions more than he previously had.

    The unfortunate reality is that he's polling well enough to have a legitimate shot at winning the Electoral College vote which would win him the election.

    If the majority of voters make the mistake of thinking Trump has no chance at being elected President, then voting turnout history indicates he will most likely win the election by a very narrow margin of Electoral College votes and while also losing the popular vote by a lot.
    Don’t forget about abortion. It will fuel women of all ages and political stripes as well as the younger voters. That is totally different than 2020.

    Wisconsin recently elected a woman Democratic Supreme Court justice to replace an R retiree, thus swinging the makeup of their Supreme Court and preserving their rights to reproductive care in that state. They also re-elected their Democratic Governor. I suspect that statehouse will start to turn around as well, especially now that their Supreme Court will probably act on their gerrymandered state districts.

    I don’t think Michigan will be as close as it was in 2020. I think Nevada is safe. Georgia and Arizona will be close, but election deniers (and Trump is the biggest of them all) uniformly lost there in 2022.

    I’m not trying to be argumentative, I go back and forth on this - to keep me motivated and then to reassure myself, lol.
     
    It's not about those trends on a national level. It's not even about those trends on an overall percentage of the population.

    It's all about whether or not those trends significantly altered the traditional voting patterns specifically in states that are traditionally tight races like Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona were the margins of victory are only around 10 thousand votes or less.

    The reason polling shows a tight race right now is not because of popular vote, it's because Trump is polling closely to Biden in the pivotal states that are needed to get an Electoral College win.

    It's a given that Trump will not come anywhere close to winning the popular vote. He'll probably lose that by millions more than he previously had.

    The unfortunate reality is that he's polling well enough to have a legitimate shot at winning the Electoral College vote which would win him the election.

    If the majority of voters make the mistake of thinking Trump has no chance at being elected President, then voting turnout history indicates he will most likely win the election by a very narrow margin of Electoral College votes and while also losing the popular vote by a lot.
    So where is this trove of new right wing and independent voters coming from?

    They had 71 million last time out. Most ever. Still didn't get it done.

    He has to win a majority combination of Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

    He has no shot at all in Michigan and Pennsylvania so he has to run the table in-
    Arizona (the Democratic Party has made major inroads and holds the Senate seats and the Gov office)
    Wisconsin- has moved decidedly left since the election with a majority Dem state congress.

    Georgia- has been trending the wrong way for years and was eclipsed faster than thought possible. He is going to be indicted there and will be the epicenter of voter fraud

    Nevada - could flip it. Doesn't matter. Only voted for him once and that was Hillary.

    Then throw in the problems he will have in Ohio, North Carolina, and he will have to defend instead of attack. Not his position of strength at all.
     
    So where is this trove of new right wing and independent voters coming from?

    They had 71 million last time out. Most ever. Still didn't get it done.

    He has to win a majority combination of Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

    He has no shot at all in Michigan and Pennsylvania so he has to run the table in-
    Arizona (the Democratic Party has made major inroads and holds the Senate seats and the Gov office)
    Wisconsin- has moved decidedly left since the election with a majority Dem state congress.

    Georgia- has been trending the wrong way for years and was eclipsed faster than thought possible. He is going to be indicted there and will be the epicenter of voter fraud

    Nevada - could flip it. Doesn't matter. Only voted for him once and that was Hillary.

    Then throw in the problems he will have in Ohio, North Carolina, and he will have to defend instead of attack. Not his position of strength at all.
    Trump's 2016 win was fairly illogical following the 2012 and 2008 elections of Obama. No one really saw that coming except for Michael Moore. Completely different circumstances and all I know, but still.. the thinking going into election day was generally that Trump had no shot.

    I get what you're saying and I understand the trends and all.. but I view things to be fluid and the situation tenuous until proven otherwise.
     
    So where is this trove of new right wing and independent voters coming from?
    You know I didn't say anything about "troves of new right wing voters" and that it doesn't take a trove of any voters to flip an election in several states.

    Believe what you want to believe, but the most reliable polling data we have shows that it's currently a lot closer race than you think it is.

    There is an overwhelming and historical level of dissatisfaction for another Biden vs Trump ballot. That wasn't the case the first time around and Biden barely won the presidency. It came down to around 75,000 votes spread across four or five states.

    The last time there was so much dissatisfaction with ballot choices was Hilary vs Trump. Trump barely won that election, because of lower voter turnout from voters who typically vote for the Democratic candidate.

    Trump is going to have a nearly maximum level of voter turnout from his supporters. If the Democratic voters who don't like Biden, and there is a significant portion of them, think that Biden has it in the bag and Trump doesn't stand a chance, a significant percentage of them is likely not to vote.

    That's all it takes to eliminate around 75,000 votes for Biden across four or five states.

    I believe without a doubt that if Trump is on the ballot on the day of the general election and an average of 20% or more of Democractic voters in each state are convinced Trump doesn't have any chance to win, then Trump is going to win the election.
     

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