What happens to the Republican Party now? (1 Viewer)

[MT15]

This election nonsense by Trump may end up splitting up the Republican Party. I just don’t see how the one third (?) who are principled conservatives can stay in the same party with Trump sycophants who are willing to sign onto the TX Supreme Court case.

We also saw the alt right types chanting “destroy the GOP” in Washington today because they didn’t keep Trump in power. I think the Q types will also hold the same ill will toward the traditional Republican Party. In fact its quite possible that all the voters who are really in a Trump personality cult will also blame the GOP for his loss. It’s only a matter of time IMO before Trump himself gets around to blaming the GOP.

There is some discussion of this on Twitter. What do you all think?

 

[J-DONK]

Don't see it.

When there are only two choices again, Trump will have no chance to make up enough voters due to:

1) R's Dying - age and Covid. This can't be overstated. Hundreds of thousands of his voters have died since 2020.
2) I's Fed up - his legal troubles are going to hurt with independents; who support the investigations according to surveys. He has to win independents, not just hold the ones he had.

3) Youth vote - this too is understated at this point. Hundreds of thousands of new voters are of age. And they vote. And oh man are they pissed. Abortion is going to be their death knell.

I think there is a decent chance of this happening:

1. Trump wins Republican nomination.
2. Trump is convicted before November.
3. Trump is polling 20+ points behind Biden.
4. Trump makes a deal with the GOP to endorse someone for a full pardon.

 

[MT15]

 

[bdb13]

I think there is a decent chance of this happening:

1. Trump wins Republican nomination.
2. Trump is convicted before November.
3. Trump is polling 20+ points behind Biden.
4. Trump makes a deal with the GOP to endorse someone for a full pardon.

I just don't see Trump falling that far behind.. new poll out of Michigan:

President Biden and former President Trump are tied in the battleground state of Michigan, according to a new Emerson College poll released on Friday.

Biden and Trump each garnered 44 percent support from Michigan voters, while eight percent said they would vote for someone else and five percent said they are undecided. However, the poll found that when Green Party candidate Cornel West was added to the ballot, Trump led with 43 percent and Biden came in with 41 percent. West garnered four percent support.

Biden, Trump tied in Michigan ahead of 2024 election: poll

President Biden and former President Trump are tied in the battleground state of Michigan, according to a new Emerson College poll released on Friday. Biden and Trump each garnered 44 percent…

thehill.com

 

[J-DONK]

I just don't see Trump falling that far behind.. new poll out of Michigan:

Biden, Trump tied in Michigan ahead of 2024 election: poll

President Biden and former President Trump are tied in the battleground state of Michigan, according to a new Emerson College poll released on Friday. Biden and Trump each garnered 44 percent…

thehill.com

I assume a convicted felon will drop in the polls. Who knows though, you maybe right. What a dark day for the country if someone essentially convicted of a coup has a close presidential election.

 

[bdb13]

I assume a convicted felon will drop in the polls. Who knows though, you maybe right. What a dark day for the country if someone essentially convicted of a coup has a close presidential election.

It's crazy.. but that is the way I see it. This stuff won't be nearly as impactful upon the electorate as a whole as it should be imo.

 

[CoolBrees]

At this point Hillary was leading President Obama by like 20 points.

Giuliani was the lead in '16 at this point.

In other words, polls this far out are meaningless

 

[Optimus Prime]

I assume a convicted felon will drop in the polls. Who knows though, you maybe right. What a dark day for the country if someone essentially convicted of a coup has a close presidential election.

Remember when if it was revealed that a politician or candidate had an undocumented person working as their nanny or did their landscaping that person had to resign or drop out in shame?

Today? 78 criminal indictments and counting equals leading in the polls by 35+ points and raking in donations by the millions

 

[Optimus Prime]

At this point Hillary was leading President Obama by like 20 points.

Giuliani was the lead in '16 at this point.

In other words, polls this far out are meaningless

I did post and article that referenced that but it also said that no one with this big of a lead at this point lost the nomination, there were a couple close calls but all won

 

[SFIDC3]

3) Youth vote - this too is understated at this point. Hundreds of thousands of new voters are of age. And they vote. And oh man are they pissed. Abortion is going to be their death knell.

This is by far the best point on why Trump will not be elected but I would add (as MT suggested) women of all ages here.....we have already seen this impact in certain formerly red states....I very much think it will continue in the national election.

My hope is that Trump runs, loses and then goes to jail shortly after....that would absolutely destroy him and it's exactly what he deserves....

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Democrats need to seize on the fact that inflation has been steadily cooling to highlight that their plans are working. Don't know why they always have messaging problems.

 

[coldseat]

Democrats need to seize on the fact that inflation has been steadily cooling to highlight that their plans are working. Don't know why they always have messaging problems.

The Democrats have been messaging that very hard. And it's starting to reflect in opinions/polls about the economy. That's what the whole "Bidenomics" push is about.

For whatever reason (because they cut taxes regarless of the debt/deficit or that it mostly benifits the rich, I suppose) many people in this country have the entrenched belief that Republicans are better with the economy. It doesn't matter how much evidence we have to the contrary or what message Democrats put out.

 

[MT15]

The Ohio GOP is just broken. Bribery scandals, ignoring an Ohio SC order and now this:

 

[bdb13]

At this point Hillary was leading President Obama by like 20 points.

Giuliani was the lead in '16 at this point.

In other words, polls this far out are meaningless

Right but is it not a little bit disturbing to you that even with all Trump has going on right now you're still seeing polling like that out of a state like Michigan?

 

[MT15]

Lol. Haven’t had one of these in a bit

 

[CoolBrees]

Right but is it not a little bit disturbing to you that even with all Trump has going on right now you're still seeing polling like that out of a state like Michigan?

Not really.

People mostly don't pay attention to the news at all.

Even in the election with the most voters ever wasn't 75% of the electorate.

If there is a perp walk with photos, that might begin to turn heads a bit.

I will say this - if we get to July next year and he is leading, then I will begin to plan my move to another country. Just in case.

 

[Optimus Prime]

The first jab at the vice president during last Friday’s Republican fundraiser came from former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who told people at the Lincoln Dinner in Iowa that “a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris. That’s who we’re actually running against. We have to make sure she doesn’t win.”


The next attack came 20 minutes later from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is engaged in a public war of words with Harris over his state’s approach to teaching about slavery. “I’ve got Kamala Harris coming down to Florida trying to create phony narratives because she understands Florida has stood up to the left’s agenda,” he said, mispronouncing Harris’s first name. “She thinks she can come down and lie about what we’re doing in the state of Florida.”

A thousand miles away, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) recently held up the supposed nightmare of a Harris presidency as a reason for his fellow Republicans not to impeach President Biden. “I think people don’t want Kamala Harris to take over,” he warned.

In recent weeks, prominent Republicans, including some running for president, have set their sights on Harris in a more visible way. She’s been blasted as an embodiment of the “woke” left, invited to Tallahassee to debate slavery with DeSantis, and been held up as a central reason not to vote for the aging Biden.


For her part, Harris has leaned into the antagonism, hopscotching around the country, including to GOP strongholds, to fire up Democrats with vivid denunciations of Republican attitudes toward racial justice and abortion rights.

The dynamic has raised the visibility of Harris, who is widely seen as a future White House aspirant herself but has struggled to find a path that would cement her standing with the Democratic base.……

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/04/vice-president-kamala-harris-speeches-visibility/

 

[LA - L.A.]

Democrats need to seize on the fact that inflation has been steadily cooling to highlight that their plans are working. Don't know why they always have messaging problems.

There's a risk that comes with that strategy. There are factors that cause inflation to rise that no one government can control. If Biden claims responsibility for bringing down inflation and factors outside his control increases inflation leading up to the election, then people will get nervous about the economy again and they'll blame Biden for it. Any effort by Biden to point out factors outside his control is increasing inflation will probably fall on deaf ears.

He has to walk a fine line with just how much he claims responsibility for the current economic improvements until the general election is just a couple of months away.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

...Any effort by Biden to point out factors outside his control is increasing inflation will probably fall on deaf ears.

Couldn't agree more!

If we were dealing with an honest Republican Party and its electorate that demands reinforcement of their ill-informed beliefs, trying to convey rational, fact driven information would work in Biden's favor. But here we are.