The trade and economy mega-thread (3 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[MT15]

Good job Trump.

Trump’s first 100 days are the worst for the stock market since Nixon — CNBC

The S&P 500 has dropped 7.9% since Inauguration Day, CFRA Research data shows.

stocks.apple.com

 

[coldseat]

We should all be stocking up on some non-perishable household items. Just pretend the pandemic is coming again because that’s basically what will happen, just without the virus, thank goodness.

And without the stimulus that helped so many out of the economic morass during the pandemic.

Except for his rich donors of course, they'll receive a government stimulus.

 

[UriUT]

More subsidies....ahemm....welfare. utter bs. Don't they ever dare complain about welfare queens again.

You have to be special type of stupid to believe in this government efficiency crap.

 

[coldseat]

More subsidies....ahemm....welfare. utter bs. Don't they ever dare complain about welfare queens again.

You have to be special type of stupid to believe in this government efficiency crap.

fork that! They need to suffer with everybody else. They voted for him.

 

[efil4]

China just said they aren't budging. Now actively recruiting partners to not cave.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-29/china-rallies-countries-to-stand-up-to-trump-s-tariff-bullying?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true

 

[UriUT]

China just said they aren't budging. Now actively recruiting partners to not cave.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-29/china-rallies-countries-to-stand-up-to-trump-s-tariff-bullying?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true

Also from Bloomberg. Nationalist sentiments..even his critics are rallying around Xi. He was vulnerable after zero covid. Manufacturing declining. Capital leaving. Investments around china's neighbors increased. Gdp slowing. But trump in his infinite wisdom made this possible. A few things we can depend on Maga. Insincere concerns and stupidity. "Oh we care about national security". Welp, you are too dump to understand what that even means and how to achieve it. If you'd cared about isolating China, you'd have voted for Obama and Biden. Not the moron who bankrupted multiple casinos. Don't listen to Navarro or his fake friends. Jesus..how did we get here.

 

[fooferdoggie]

fork that! They need to suffer with everybody else. They voted for him.

well he bailed them out last time too. see a pattern here? but he sure wont help states with natural disasters only ones he causes.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[superchuck500]

The cargo is starting to dry up over the next few weeks.

 

[efil4]

The cargo is starting to dry up over the next few weeks.

The canary in the coal mine. ( West coast ports )

The wave of cancelled ships is only beginning. It will ripple thru US ports as the weeks continue.

 

[bird]

I was trying to determine the movement of the Baltic Dry Index. The index is generally not speculative. It can sometimes forecast downturns like CoVid. When CoVid first started showing up in China the index dropped enormously. Then it rose which seemed to indicate “snarls and delays” in shipping. The cargoes are generally raw material like coal and iron ore as well as grains. It has been rising of late but it is down from it previous recent highs.

On a tangential but related note, it seems that shipments into the port of Seattle are way down. BC is getting shipments that normally would go to Seattle.

 

[efil4]

Aaaaand Jeff Bezos is now back on the "poop" list of Trump.

 

[bird]

Aaaaand Jeff Bezos is now back on the "poop" list of Trump.

I am glad Bezos pulls his head out of his azz on occasion.

And Karoline Leavitt is a waster of air, water and food.

 

[efil4]

The cargo is starting to dry up over the next few weeks.

Mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming - Apollo

Apollo Global Management has a grim warning for the trucking industry: a recession is coming and its bringing mass layoffs.

www.freightwaves.com

in charts

https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf

 

[superchuck500]

Mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming - Apollo

Apollo Global Management has a grim warning for the trucking industry: a recession is coming and its bringing mass layoffs.

www.freightwaves.com

in charts

https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf

UPS with 20K layoffs based on reduced delivery volume, Amazon

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ups-reports-fall-first-quarter-revenue-2025-04-29/

 

[superchuck500]

Amazon stated its intent to include a display of how much of the product's price is based on tariffs - which seems like nothing more than price transparency, right?

NO, the White House "slams" the idea as a "hostile and political act". wtf

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/white-house-blasts-amazon-over-tariff-cost-report-hostile-and-political-act.html

 

[coldseat]

Amazon stated its intent to include a display of how much of the product's price is based on tariffs - which seems like nothing more than price transparency, right?

NO, the White House "slams" the idea as a "hostile and political act". wtf

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/white-house-blasts-amazon-over-tariff-cost-report-hostile-and-political-act.html

It's simple. They want Americans to be ignorant and blame anybody but them. It's worked for them so far.

 

[fooferdoggie]

One of my customers who does signs told me the sign supply company can't guarantee prices more than 10 days and even then it may change.