The trade and economy mega-thread (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[efil4]

Thanks for the history lesson.

you are more than welcome - glad i could help.

 

[Booker]

There is absolutely no excuse for the Biden border policy. IMO. None. His numbers were multiples worse than any of his predecessors. And he did little to nothing about it. Said his hands were tied. Except the laws that applied to him also applied to his predecessors and still apply today. So all that is nothing but empty rhetoric. And the notion that they were somehow unaware of the difficulty this kind of influx would put on state and local governments or didn’t know ahead of time what it would take in money and other resources to adjudicate and resolve asylum claims for tens of thousands million people is incredibly naive and ridiculous. They knew and they did it anyway. Mayorkas testified to as much.

But hey. We don’t have to agree on this point.

I can't believe I'm going to quote from the freaking Cato institute, but I'm going to do it because there's no way you can call it liberal propaganda and it pretty much refutes everything you've been saying about this...

Summary

The main takeaways are:

• Illegal immigration had already increased to a 21-year high before Biden entered office.
• Biden immediately started increasing expulsions from his first day in office.
• Biden tripled interior detention and increased border detention 12-fold.
• Biden increased air removal flights by 55 percent over 2020 levels.
• Biden negotiated broader expulsion deals with foreign countries than Trump.
• Biden got many foreign countries to carry out crackdowns on illegal and legal migration.
• Biden removed or expelled 3.3 million border crossers—three times as many as Trump.
• Biden even managed to remove a similar percentage of crossers as Trump’s four years.

Despite Biden’s historic crackdown:

• Expulsions did not deter migrants, even among demographics universally expelled.
• The percentage increase in evasions of Border Patrol increased as much as Border Patrol arrests, implying that releases did not cause the crisis and that many people did not want Border Patrol to catch them but were undeterred by the threat.
• Releases occurred not because Biden cut removals but because migration grew faster than the administration could increase them.
• As a result, releases only occurred among specific demographic groups and in certain areas where removals were logistically complicated.
• Biden could not easily remove groups to Mexico, like families, children, and immigrants from distant countries who were arrested in record numbers.

The actual causes of the increases in illegal immigration were:

• Unprecedented labor demand, which incentivized and funded migration from around the world: From February 2021 to August 2024, there were more open jobs each month than in any month before Biden’s term began. During this time, economies worldwide were recovering far less quickly than the United States. As labor demand subsided in 2024, immigration fell.
• Unprecedented access to information about migration through the Internet and social media: Internet access rose rapidly from 2018 to 2021, nearly doubling in Central America and reaching unprecedented highs in South America. Social media platforms gave people step-by-step instructions on migrating and connected them directly with smugglers. This opened migration from around the world, which contributed to the number of releases.
• Novel and perverse enforcement policies: The Title 42 expulsion policy incentivized repeat crossings by returning people to Mexico, where they could immediately attempt to re-enter the United States. Title 42 also cut off access to asylum, incentivizing more Border Patrol evasions.
• Novel and perverse legal migration policies: Title 42 not only banned asylum for people who crossed illegally but also prohibited legal entries by asylum seekers, including demographic groups that had traditionally always entered legally, like Haitians, Cubans, and Mexican families. Biden eventually increased legal entries by these groups and others, limiting the crisis’s extent and ultimately contributing to its end.

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[efil4]

Brilliant

 

[Booker]

Brilliant

What a difference six months make...

 

[Optimus Prime]

President Donald Trump knows exactly who to blame for the tanking economy: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who has not acceded to Trump’s whims to lower interest rates to goose the economy.

For just about everyone else—including Jay “Mr. Too Late” Powell, in Trump’s latest nickname of contempt—the culprit is just as clear: Trump himself, who has threatened, implemented, suspended, swapped, and escalated tariffs like so many wallpaper swatches.

The White House is treating the debate as if it is not quite so one-sided, while also trying to act as if every new statement from Trump or Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent represents a coherent policy. For a President obsessed with the stock market, the rebuke from investors is particularly stinging.

Since Trump took office, stocks have tanked, the bond market has gone wobbly, and the dollar is weaker. Just Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund revised its forecast, upping the odds of a recession to 37% from its previous marker of 25%. That’s more conservative than the assessment of Americans—42% of whom think the economy is already in recession or economic depression, according to Gallup’s latest polling.

This all helps explain why Trump in the last 36 hours seems to have climbed down from a cliff of his own making—by saying he has “no intention” of firing Powell, a few days after posting “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” (To be clear: whether a President can depose the head of the Fed is completely untested. Markets are unequivocally terrified of Trump even trying to do so.).............

Why Trump's 'Blame Jerome Powell' Strategy Flopped So Hard

On Wall Street, the White House's constant messaging shifts are beginning to drown out the messages themselves.

time.com

 

[UriUT]

I can't believe I'm going to quote from the freaking Cato institute, but I'm going to do it because there's no way you can call it liberal propaganda and it pretty much refutes everything you've been saying about this...

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Oh come'on. Why are you bring facts to an opinion fight???? By the time these facts come out of your pistol, the opinion would ve shifted like neo.

Ti's tis.

 

[superchuck500]

Pretty detailed report about how and when the China tariffs will begin to impact US consumers.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/unsustainable-china-trade-war-retail-shortage-warnings.html

 

[efil4]

Real world example by company that sells filtered shower heads.

Simply won't work.



Full results and discussion here.

Everyone Says They’ll Pay More for “Made in the USA.” So We Ran an A/B

When we priced a U.S.-made version of our flagship product 85% higher than our Chinese-made one, 25,650 customers had the chance to vote with their wallets. Here’s what happened. As small business owners, we’ve heard it a thousand times: “I’d gladly pay more to support American-made.” We wanted...

afina.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

Could have gone in the DOGE thread too
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Moody’s Ratings announced this week that it was downgrading D.C.’s credit rating amid a wave of mass federal workforce cuts and hits to the local economy.

Moody’s said in a new report that it was downgrading the district’s issuer rating from Aaa to Aa1, a blow to the city that will likely make it more expensive for the local government to borrow money and cost taxpayers more.

The downgrade comes from the “mounting negative pressure that cuts to federal spending, workforce and real estate are having on the District’s economy and finances.”

The analysis noted that under the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) slashes to the federal workforce, D.C. is expected to lose 40,000 workers over the next four years. Moody’s said that workforce loss will “erode the stability” that the federal government historically held in the city and over its economy.

D.C. Chief Financial Officer Glen Lee said in a statement that the rating change is not a result of the degradation of Washington’s governance.

“Rather, it stems from broader federal decisions regarding its workforce and spending, and economic trends that are beyond the District’s control and are having a disproportionate impact on the local economy,” Lee’s statement said.


The ratings change was first reported by The Washington Post.

Moody’s noted in its report that it was giving D.C. a negative outlook because there likely will be more cuts to federal spending and the federal workforce, and the city has seen a decline in its commercial real estate market. While the rating now rests at Aa1, it’s still a strong rating given that Moody’s can go down to a C.………

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thehill.com

 

[B4YOU]

Could have gone in the DOGE thread too
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Moody’s Ratings announced this week that it was downgrading D.C.’s credit rating amid a wave of mass federal workforce cuts and hits to the local economy.

Moody’s said in a new report that it was downgrading the district’s issuer rating from Aaa to Aa1, a blow to the city that will likely make it more expensive for the local government to borrow money and cost taxpayers more.

The downgrade comes from the “mounting negative pressure that cuts to federal spending, workforce and real estate are having on the District’s economy and finances.”

The analysis noted that under the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) slashes to the federal workforce, D.C. is expected to lose 40,000 workers over the next four years. Moody’s said that workforce loss will “erode the stability” that the federal government historically held in the city and over its economy.

D.C. Chief Financial Officer Glen Lee said in a statement that the rating change is not a result of the degradation of Washington’s governance.

“Rather, it stems from broader federal decisions regarding its workforce and spending, and economic trends that are beyond the District’s control and are having a disproportionate impact on the local economy,” Lee’s statement said.


The ratings change was first reported by The Washington Post.

Moody’s noted in its report that it was giving D.C. a negative outlook because there likely will be more cuts to federal spending and the federal workforce, and the city has seen a decline in its commercial real estate market. While the rating now rests at Aa1, it’s still a strong rating given that Moody’s can go down to a C.………

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thehill.com

Zero surprise. Congress screwed the District with a 1B budget cut halfway through the fiscal year. Relocating the USDA outside the District will be a big blow. Commercial office space was struggling post-Covid. Condo building just went through a boom with purchase price reduction of 5-10%. Condos are 50% of the housing stock. New condos are often filled with young federal employees, many of whom just lost their jobs. Condo prices are going to crash further. DC property taxes won't fill the hole for the loss of sale or income taxes due to job losses. The city govt has been very quietly firing people. Big capital expenditures like 500M to keep the Capitols and Wizards and an estimated 850M for the Commanders are funded via bonds that will cost more.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Trump officials tipped off Wall Street execs about possible India tariff deal: Fox

The move raises new accusations of insider trading by the Trump administration and its cronies

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Optimus Prime]

Trump’s planned pharmaceutical tariffs would raise costs by $51bn annually - report

Prices of medication and other costs could increase by as much as 12.9 percent if the tariffs are put in place

www.independent.co.uk

 

[MT15]

Not only a liar, a really bad liar.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[UriUT]

I live with stupid behind what was fine borders.

 

[efil4]

I live with stupid behind what was fine borders.

LOL well at least the out-of-work intermodal/containerized frieght truckers will be able to speak english when they hit the unemployment office.



And here in SE LA, the LARGEST expense for these guys is insurance. They simply cannot afford a 3-4 week period of zero to light work- they wont be able to keep up with insurance costs.

I know rates across country is higher than average, but for LA truckers- its 2-5x more. Especially if they run interstate.

National average hovers around $12k/annual per unit. LA is anywhere between $20-40k ( depending on location- if Orleans- its easily $40k )

 

[efil4]

aaaaaaaaaaaand just off phone with For Hire Interstate trucker ( current client )

without divulging EXACT numbers, his renewal went from $15,300 to $25,100- one unit- out Shreveport LA.

No tickets
No Accidents in last 3 years. Jumped almost 60% due to carrier rate increases in 2024. Thats it.

Thats 1 unit/1 trailer $750,000 CSL ( $1,000,000 would be around $30k )

So his overhead just jumped a full $800~/mo JUST on insurance costs because his carrier ( which is one of only 2-3 that i know of ) took rate increases.

 

[MT15]

We should all be stocking up on some non-perishable household items. Just pretend the pandemic is coming again because that’s basically what will happen, just without the virus, thank goodness.