The trade and economy mega-thread (12 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[UriUT]

which actually makes it even worse. thats % of content.

And depending where the content is coming from and how many times its shipped, tariff each time.

He does a lot of small comedic bit like tic tok/instagram I guess(?) on finance and economic news. He is a former finance reporter. I saw it today and it reminded me of your post.

 

[Huntn]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

I’m a little shocked, I found myself rooting for China…
Dark Days of 2025:

China calls Trump’s new tariff threat ‘a mistake upon a mistake’ and looks for opportunity in global trade war​

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/07/business/china-trump-tariffs-opportunity-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html

China says it will 'fight to the end' after Trump threatens to impose still more tariffs

China, the world’s second-largest economy, has announced retaliatory tariffs and the ministry hinted in its latest statement that more may be coming.

apnews.com

 

[efil4]

Market futures look to rebound. If sustained thru end of trading, its possible that the market is a) saying the last several days was a bit overreaction or b) they know something about April 9 ( date ALL tariffs take effect )

will be interested to see where the market ends up at close.

 

[MT15]

Market futures look to rebound. If sustained thru end of trading, its possible that the market is a) saying the last several days was a bit overreaction or b) they know something about April 9 ( date ALL tariffs take effect )

will be interested to see where the market ends up at close.

I read that Trump said out loud that all these tariffs are negotiable. I think some are taking that as a sign he will back off. It wouldn’t be the first time he had to correct a huge blunder. Of course he will say he negotiated great new deals.

I wonder if he dimly realizes he bit off more than he can handle? His big money donors are probably screaming and even Musk criticized his trade policy publicly.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Market futures look to rebound. If sustained thru end of trading, its possible that the market is a) saying the last several days was a bit overreaction or b) they know something about April 9 ( date ALL tariffs take effect )

will be interested to see where the market ends up at close.

They are betting the tariffs will be lifted either before they even take effect or soon after. There's an element of theater to all of this, and the market is trying to figure out how much is posturing and how much is real. If the tariffs are dropped or some quick concessions are made, the markets will react favorably, and right now enough investors are betting that will happen to provide this rally.

With Trump, volatility is part of the game -- and markets are irrational in the short term. Over the long term they'll be rational.

 

[RobF]

Market futures look to rebound. If sustained thru end of trading, its possible that the market is a) saying the last several days was a bit overreaction or b) they know something about April 9 ( date ALL tariffs take effect )

will be interested to see where the market ends up at close.

Part of the fundamental problem with the situation is its wild unpredictability. But people like to think they can predict things.

So it's possible the market doesn't know anything, but thinks that the tariffs won't be applied tomorrow because surely they won't, that would be insane. The rational (I mean relatively, none of this is really rational) thing would be to suspend them at the last minute so they're looming as a threat over the following negotiations. So surely the market will recover, and better get in now before it does.

Problem is it's entirely possible for this administration to do irrational things.

But it's also possible this administration leaks like a sieve to some connected people and the market does know things. That would be corrupt, but I mean.

Then, the other aspect to that is, even if that is what they're planning, it's also possible some countries recognise that for what it would be - crude economic bullying - and flat-out refuse to indulge it, offering nothing, recognising that giving anything will just encourage coming back for more. Question then is whether this administration would back down and try to spin "nothing" as a victory, or escalate.

And then there's the continuing question of whether the US government can truly be so dense as to believe that there should be no trade deficit with any single country and is actually trying to achieve that.

 

[Huntn]

China said fork you Uncle Sam…

 

[efil4]

They are betting the tariffs will be lifted either before they even take effect or soon after. There's an element of theater to all of this, and the market is trying to figure out how much is posturing and how much is real. If the tariffs are dropped or some quick concessions are made, the markets will react favorably, and right now enough investors are betting that will happen to provide this rally.

With Trump, volatility is part of the game -- and markets are irrational in the short term. Over the long term they'll be rational.

i would replace "volatility" with "chaos" - but thats just me

The performative aspect ( both you and @RobF alluded to ) - absolutely.

However, that wont help his cause down the road. He will, at some point, get his bluff called, and i fear at that time, things will have built up to such a level, it will be much worse. He keeps feigning these actions, not following thru, and others are gonna see the pattern and react accordingly.

China is the first to do this. They are calling his bluff. Not budging on anything. So, as of now, he has 104% tariff ( as announced ) set to take effect April 9. Will it be all bark, no bite? a slight bite? or full on attack?

If he pauses the full amount, he has lost the leverage of "tariffs" on just about everyone else who paid attention. They will all, simoltaneously call his bluff, which would paint him into a corner of having no choice but to go thru, and THEN the market will drop like a stone.

 

[superchuck500]

Interesting observation - the rest of the world doesn't have to follow with tariffs on each other, it's only a USA issue. So yes, they get the USA tariffs but not from everyone else . . . but the USA gets them from everyone.

 

[efil4]

Interesting observation - the rest of the world doesn't have to follow with tariffs on each other, it's only a USA issue. So yes, they get the USA tariffs but not from everyone else . . . but the USA gets them from everyone.

i think that was discussed a ways back- All these countries are free to form their own trade alliances with each other. Canada came out and said they were talking direct to Mexico and China and im sure EU was talking same type of possibilities.

Its isolation at its core ( and maximum ) - we would be ostracizing ourselves from the global trade market because someone thinks its taking advantage of us.

its nuts.

As Thomas Friedmans' book said 20 years ago- The World is Flat ( when it comes to global economics )

 

[efil4]

soooo now we have a side show- Navarro vs Musk

This whole administration is nothing more than a "The Apprentice" season- pitting folks vying for approval against each other and Trump simply gets off on the chaos. But instead of them playing "ceo of a widget mfger" they are actually playing with US Economy and Bureaucracy.

 

[superchuck500]

soooo now we have a side show- Navarro vs Musk

This whole administration is nothing more than a "The Apprentice" season- pitting folks vying for approval against each other and Trump simply gets off on the chaos. But instead of them playing "ceo of a widget mfger" they are actually playing with US Economy and Bureaucracy.

 

[MT15]

Two idiots trashing each other. Oh well….

 

[efil4]

Two idiots trashing each other. Oh well….

 

[Huntn]

i think that was discussed a ways back- All these countries are free to form their own trade alliances with each other. Canada came out and said they were talking direct to Mexico and China and im sure EU was talking same type of possibilities.

Its isolation at its core ( and maximum ) - we would be ostracizing ourselves from the global trade market because someone thinks its taking advantage of us.

its nuts.

As Thomas Friedmans' book said 20 years ago- The World is Flat ( when it comes to global economics )

We’re being led by a freaking idiot, who has The GreatestPlans for us, chaos and destruction. His marshmallows are ready.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[Dragon]

i think that was discussed a ways back- All these countries are free to form their own trade alliances with each other. Canada came out and said they were talking direct to Mexico and China and im sure EU was talking same type of possibilities.

Its isolation at its core ( and maximum ) - we would be ostracizing ourselves from the global trade market because someone thinks its taking advantage of us.

its nuts.

As Thomas Friedmans' book said 20 years ago- The World is Flat ( when it comes to global economics )

Canada is also in serious talks with EU

 

[CoolBrees]

And any pain felt by the locals in any other country except this stupid one will be blamed on us and they will coalesce around the clear need to do so. They will pull together tighter as nations because of this. We basically kicked off real national pride for every country but our own. While, he simultaneously brought nations together to build trade agreements without us, costing the country trillions.

This is the dumbest thing he's done and he's done some of the stupidest shirt I have ever seen.