The trade and economy mega-thread (3 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[superchuck500]

Trump says we’re doing awesome

 

[efil4]

Trump says we’re doing awesome

That post is only for the most faithful.

 

[superchuck500]

That post is only for the most faithful.

New party just dropped yall

 

[coldseat]

Lots of “we were wrong about Trump’s economic policies” from Wall Street types today.

They can all go screw themselves. They put us in this situation with Trump to begin with.

 

[UriUT]

 

[Maxp]

MAGATS are still cheering the collapse of markets.

 

[J-DONK]

because these "elites" had their focus on one thing- make money. They missed ALL the signals. Heck some were probably told "this is what we are planning" and invested heavily accordingly.

Then it went in the opposite direction and now ALL of them are taking an absolute beating.

Only one way to garner their attention - start $@#$@#$ with their money ( or ability to make money ) - THEN they come to life.

Also, they judged things off of the Trump first term. They thought a few tariffs, and some more of those sweet tax cuts.

They completely misjudged how much the adults in the last admin kept Trump in line.

 

[efil4]

MAGATS are still cheering the collapse of markets.

i have a thought on that too.

The core supporters dont hold much in way of value/wealth - they want to FEEL wealthy but havent got what many others have. The cheering is because now so many more are being brought back down to their level. And they love it.

They think this is a game.

 

[UriUT]

One of my family members iPhone finally died after 6 years, and I was able to upgrade to a new one without a tariff hit. A heads up that if you were wondering about getting a new iPhone, now may be the time to do it without the significant tariff price increase. It looks like Apple shipped in a large amount to build up a supply for a few months without the added tax:

iPhone prices safe for now as Apple races ahead of Trump's tariff clock - The Economic Times

Trump tariffs: Apple currently has no plans to raise retail prices of its products, including iPhones, despite new tariffs, according to a TOI report. The company has pre-shipped a high inventory from its Indian and Chinese factories to the US, temporarily insulating it from the increased costs...

m.economictimes.com

I came across some news about this in the last month or so. We experienced the largest deficit spending from the private sector in the first three months of the years. It was implied that most companies anticipated some tariffs and borrowed to ship products to the US asap. The markets knew this.

 

[UriUT]

Also, they judged things off of the Trump first term. They thought a few tariffs, and some more of those sweet tax cuts.

They completely misjudged how much the adults in the last admin kept Trump in line.

Yeah but..... More sane definitely.

I've posted this article before. It's the trade war with China in Trump's first term.

More pain than gain: How the US-China trade war hurt America

The ultimate results of the phase one trade deal between China and the United States — and the trade war that preceded it — have significantly hurt the American economy without solving the underlying economic concerns that the trade war was meant to resolve, write Ryan Hass and Abraham Denmark.

www.brookings.edu

Despite Trump’s claim that “trade wars are good, and easy to win,” the ultimate results of the phase one trade deal between China and the United States — and the trade war that preceded it — have significantly hurt the American economy without solving the underlying economic concerns that the trade war was meant to resolve.

and the manufacturing and freight transportation sectors have hit lows not seen since the last recession. Trump’s actions amounted to one of the largest tax increases in years.”

A September 2019 study by Moody’s Analytics found that the trade war had already cost the U.S. economy nearly 300,000 jobs and an estimated 0.3% of real GDP. Other studies put the cost to U.S. GDP at about 0.7%.

"A spokesperson for the American Farm Bureau stated that “farmers have lost the vast majority of what was once a $24 billion market in China” as a result of Chinese retaliatory actions."

"essentially paid for the deal with a promise of a windfall in purchases of American goods. It appears that President Trump accepted an IOU as a declaration of victory."

Did Trump’s tariffs benefit American workers and national security?

www.brookings.edu

Oh man, how prescient

These include withdrawing from the WTO (though to be sure, this idea would still face strong resistance) and provoking further trade fights with allies such as Europe, Canada, Mexico, and Japan. In a second term, the guardrails that kept Trump’s trade policies from deviating too far from established approaches would further erode, opening the door to more radical changes.

Trump Misleads on Jobs - FactCheck.org

Following the release of the latest jobs report on March 7, President Donald Trump suggested that his administration -- which has been in office since Jan. 20 -- is responsible for significant job growth. The growth in February was steady, but to support his claims, Trump made several misleading...

www.factcheck.org

Forbes wrote last year that Biden-era policies, including the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act, “spurred an influx of foreign direct investment and a surge in factory construction. But the anticipated jobs have taken a while to materialize in great numbers and will not arrive until after his presidency ends.”

“Manufacturing, generally speaking, is cyclical,” Tonelson said. “Manufacturing is quite export heavy,” so it depends on what’s happening in other countries, too.

But, overall, Tonelson said, “I don’t think that one can make any reasonable conclusion about booming of anything after just about a month and a half. In terms of manufacturing jobs, we’ve only got one month of data on President Trump’s watch this time.”

lol. In only 15 days he blew that up.

 

[bird]

How? If I can see clearly what was going to happen, why couldn’t they? I’m a nobody retiree living in the Midwest. It was clear as day to me, so why did these supposed elites get their arses handed to them?

As I said over at Democratic Underground, “business leaders” are not leaders. They are no smarter than anyone else. They think because they made money this entitles them to deference and obeisance. They are not entitled to it. But because of the toxicity of the system they are given it. Thus we end up where we are.

 

[bird]

Trump says we’re doing awesome

Show me the forking money. Show me the “billions of dollars”.

 

[efil4]

Hey China, aint coming to table? ok have another 50% added

so if my math right, now its 104% tariff on China

 

[MT15]

There aren’t any billions. And the idea that tariffs could replace income tax is specifically insane. Yet I still see MAGA counting on that.

Just think about it, though. The money ultimately comes from the American consumer. Most folks aren’t going to have the extra 3 grand that tariffs cost just laying around, so they will stop buying some stuff. How will that work out for everyone? How will they get tariff money if folks quit buying stuff from other countries?

Also if the end goal is to quit buying foreign made goods and have stuff made here, then these theoretical tariff billions will plummet and be no more.

It’s a crazily stupid idea and plan. Just insane to think this way.

 

[longtime lurker]

 

[bird]

Let us assume that all countries agree to eliminate tariffs.

What will that change for other countries and for the U.S.?

“Developing” countries such as many in Africa, South America and Southeast Asia will be stunted in development. This may lead them to abandon the U.S. to itself. Since many of these countries provide low tech manufacturing attempts to bring that manufacturing back into the U.S. will cause long delays in product availability. It will also cause, imo, those same countries to seek the goods sold by U.S. manufacturers elsewhere which will damage U.S. businesses.

A modified free trade regime has been in place for decades. Do countries use tariffs? Of course. Are they screwing the U.S.? No, not arbitrarily. The companies based in the U.S. decided to shift low cost manufacturing for many things. This also happened decades ago. Once a free trade regime is in place shifting from it is damn near impossible.

Capital got their way with labor costs. The movement of manufacturing resulted in the intensification of globalization. Globalization is not new. It has gone on for centuries. Technological advances in communication and transportation accelerated it as did shifting manufacturing through either outsourcing or moving plants. Since capital will still want low labor costs bringing manufacturing back in on a large scale will inevitably include low tech manufacturing. Low tech manufacturers will demand low wages. This will mean either increased immigration to fill those jobs or the existing labor force will supply them. That will result in exacerbating inequality as well as setting in stone a permanent underclass.

Political economy is too complex for fools like “business leaders”, Trump, Musk, talking heads et al to be able to act and react to the shifting of conditions.

 

[zztop]

How could people be this forking stupid

Tariffs welcomed in Ohio's industrial Trump country

As economic uncertainty swirls and the markets take a hit, many in this deeply Republican area back the president's plan.

www.bbc.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

...........Liberation requires personal sacrifice and “short-term pain.” So if supporters do end up recognizing that his policies are impoverishing them, they almost certainly will not attribute their suffering to him.

They will blame whomever he tells them to, including nations, as he said yesterday, that have “looted, pillaged, raped and plundered” the country. These foreigners are the reason he implemented tariffs in the first place, using emergency powers usually reserved for wartime.

Indeed, the more Trump supporters suffer, the closer they are likely going to bind themselves to the president. Their suffering will be taken as proof of their patriotism and devotion to the cause of justice, and because their savior will be the only one who can relieve them of it.

This cosmic story about a white man’s country fighting to reclaim its birthright does not make sense to those who can’t or won’t see the role of racism in politics. So they chock it up to just another conspiracy theory before looking for “the real reasons” why voters chose Trump. The Democrats, meanwhile, tend to accept this, which means their solutions to the problem are as phony as the problem itself.

I’ll conclude with this observation.

It could be that the last election was about money, but not in the way most people think. Fact is, the economy was booming. Inflation was down. Wages were up. Unemployment had rarely been lower. Joe Biden really did grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out. And in spite of stubbornly high costs, most everyone prospered.

But that may have been the problem.

It’s not that Trump voters were mad at Biden, because he didn’t do enough about inflation. I think they were mad at him, because he did more than any president to expand the economic pie to include all those who are usually left behind, especially Black people.

Sad as it is, the fact remains that when Black Americans are doing well for themselves, too many white people in this country start feeling like something is wrong, something is being taken from them, someone somewhere is cheating them, even when they are in fact thriving. It’s white-power’s zero-sum. If America includes “them,” it excludes “us.”

The mainstream view used to be that the party that presided over boomtimes was the party that could expect to be rewarded. But for Trump voters who believe they are the real America, and that the real America has been “looted, pillaged, raped and plundered,” it’s likely that boomtimes meant something else – evidence they were right.

The Democrats tend to believe they can win over some Trump voters with economic politics that are designed to be in everyone’s interest. But it’s because they are designed in everyone’s interest that most Trump voters are unlikely to be won over. They want economic policies for them, not everyone. And if tariffs end up hurting them, they can take comfort in knowing Black people are hurting more.

Yes, these tariffs are the biggest tax increase of our lifetimes.

But that’s what they wanted................

Trump voters got exactly what they wanted — so why are people complaining?​

Trump voters got exactly what they wanted — so why are people complaining?

This week, Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs that the Associated Press called “a historic tax hike that could push the global order to a breaking point,” and what I want to know is this: Why are we still wondering what Trump voters want?He promised. He delivered. What’s the mystery?I...

www.alternet.org